BATTERS: Swinging strike rates

Swinging strike rate (SwK%) has been a crucial component of our pitching toolbox for the last 10 years due to its ability to predict a pitcher's strikeout rate.

It seems intuitive that SwK% also would have a strong correlation with a batter's contact rate. After all, as a pitcher's strikeout rate increases, a batter's contact rate will head in the opposite direction.

The link between contact rate and batting average continues to be strong. Among hitters with seasons of 100+ plate appearances since 2018, batting average steadily increases as their contact rate increases:

The primary driver of a batter's contact rate is their SwK%. There is a pretty strong negative correlation between the two (r = -0.70), meaning as SwK% increases, ct%...


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