Lineups Outlook: New leadoffs Donovan, Yastrzemski, Freeman

Although productive by batting average, the Cardinals needed more power from the third spot in the lineup, prompting a switch. San Francisco has had a revolving door at leadoff. With a batter returning there, should fantasy players be interested? Colorado has been turning over the roster, and two 26-year-old players may be nestling into new batting order positions. 

St. Louis Cardinals

• Brendan Donovan was the primary third-hitter in the lineup until June 15, when he moved to leadoff, coinciding with Alec Burleson replacing him in the heart of the lineup. 

Through 250 plate appearances hitting third for St. Louis, Donovan produced 23 RBI and hit two home runs. While his power was lacking in the heart of the order, his average and on-base acumen did not suffer, illustrated by his .309 average and .386 on-base percentage. When the team moved Lars Nootbaar out of the leadoff spot, Donovan’s skillset made him the natural replacement. 

It’s a limited sample, but he has scored eight runs across his first 40 plate appearances while batting first (.2 runs per plate appearance) versus his 29 runs at third (.116 runs per plate appearance). Since RBIs were not a significant part of his fantasy value while hitting third, the shift will not be impactful. 

What insulates this move is his improved h%, up four percentage points versus last year, and a potential gain in stolen bases could also be a hidden benefit. He has been successful in three of four stolen base attempts this season, versus only half of his ten tries last season. 

Burleson has ridden a hot stretch into the third spot in the batting order. He has hit third in ten of his last 11 starts, accruing 50 plate appearances with five runs, two doubles, four home runs, and 13 RBI while slashing .304/.306/.609. He has produced only ten fewer RBI than Donovan, hitting third in 200 fewer plate appearances. In the last 31 days, he has a PX of 112 with an HctX of 140. During his previous seven games, these numbers jumped to 151 PX and 194 HctX while hitting fly balls in 51 percent of his contact. 

His profile has been a good contact hitter without power upside, and he may never be a 30 home run bat, but the recent spike in power combined with the new lineup spot may yield more dingers as the season progresses. BBHQ’s rest-of-the-season projection of seven home runs through 224 plate appearances feels light for each statistic. Do not be surprised if he matches or beats his 21 home runs from last year, with an UP of 25 at the end of 2025. 

San Francisco Giants

• Back atop the lineup, can fantasy managers trust Mike Yastrzemski to stay there? 

For those who enjoyed Curb Your Enthusiasm, there was an episode detailing a character’s fluctuating weight, with the main character trying to discern if she was yo-yo-ing up or yo-yo-ing down. This applies to Yastrzemski’s season. He began the year hitting sixth, seventh, and eighth, during the first ten contests, producing two doubles, two home runs, six RBI, and two stolen bases with a robust .344/.462/.594 slash line, prompting Bob Melvin to hit him first. 

From April 11 to May 30, Yastrzemski played in 42 games, with 31 starts as the lead-off hitter, but he only hit .223/.320.345 with 19 runs, three home runs, and 11 RBI. This resulted in him hitting lower in the lineup, between fifth and eighth, for the next 15 games. However, he got hot again, batting .341 with a .856 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). This sample was light on counting statistics, with four runs and seven RBI sans a home run or a stolen base. 

Still, Melvin put “Yo-Yo Yaz” back into the leadoff spot in the last six games since June 19, during which he has logged 25 plate appearances with four runs, two home runs, and three RBI with a .136/.240/.409 slash. 

There is an old saying about trusting the back of a player’s baseball card, and for Yastrzemski, it holds. He will be productive in spurts, but trusting for prolonged periods remains difficult, especially if fantasy managers add him after he yo-yos up and get the yo-yo down after effects. In 2025, he has improved his ct% by four percentage points and raised his h% by two percentage points, but his xBA remains comparable to last year while suffering losses in his PX and HctX. Predicting the right time for “Yo-Yo Yaz” will be a difficult needle to thread, so try not to be seduced by him hitting leadoff and focus on the match-ups. 

Colorado Rockies

• Searching for better production, the Rockies have been mixing up the batting order this month. Tyler Freeman has emerged as the lead-off hitter, and Michael Toglia was recalled from Triple-A to hit fourth. 

Over the last ten games, Freeman has hit second five times and first five times, but he’s hit lead-off in his previous four starts. Across these 42 plate appearances, he has scored seven runs with two doubles, four RBI, and stolen four bases in six tries with a .400/500/.457 slash line. 

For the season, he has recorded a .300 xBA with a 126 HctX, a 35 h%, and a robust 91 percent contact rate. Pairing elite contact with batting average on balls in play insulation at Coors may be a recipe for sustained success. Power may not be a significant part of his profile, but fantasy teams starving for batting average help could do worse than Freeman. 

This year, he has recorded a 24 percent line drive rate, up eight points versus last season, and he’s been more aggressive on the bases, posting a career-high 31 stolen base opportunity percentage. At first glance, this hot steak seemed fluky, but diving into the contact rates and seeing BHQ’s xBA of .300 makes it more tangible. There will be an adjustment period, but he may remain at the top of the Rockies' batting order, which enhances his fantasy impact moving forward. 

Things may be more challenging for Toglia. He has light-tower power and tantalized fantasy players during the second half of last season. However, his ct% has dropped by five percent compared to the previous year, his HctX has decreased by 31 points, and his PX, his calling card, sits nine points below 2024. It’s a limited sample, but a concerning one, especially if he does not improve his average against right-handed pitchers. He hits for power, with seven home runs in 170 plate appearances this year, with an accompanying .190 average with a paltry .630 OPS. 

This batting order will remain unsettled through the heart of the lineup until the trade deadline. 

When we return in two weeks, do not be surprised that the Padres' top four hitters will be one of the focal points. Thanks for being part of the BaseballHQ community. Our daily content will help you remain ahead of the competition. Stay safe, and be well.

More From Batters