(*) GM's OFFICE: 2019 Prognosticating Successes, Part 1

GM's Office

Dave Adler

Oct 6 2019 12:05am

(*) GM's OFFICE: 2019 Prognosticating Successes, Part 1

Dave Adler

Oct 6 2019

Our beloved game looks different than it did even a few years ago, as seen in the record-setting number of HRs and Ks. Despite the winds of change (and, apparently, a juiced baseball), the staff here at BaseballHQ.com nailed some great calls in the Spring, as seen here and in the Baseball Forecaster (order the 2020 edition today!). Those projections a led to a great showing in various industry expert leagues. Hopefully they helped you take home a title or two as well.

Over the next two weeks, we go into more detail on our many 2019 hits — times when our process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most all of following commentaries appeared either on the site or in the 2019 Baseball Forecaster during the pre-season. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.

The hitters successes are collected here (stats in most cases are HR-RBI-SB-BA); pitchers will be covered next week.

Ronald Acuna: The 21-year-old Acuna has been a first round target in early drafts, with an ADP of 8; there are a lot of believers out there. If you're feeling hesitant about whether he's being overvalued, his second half line—which made him a $42 player, according to the 2019 Baseball Forecaster—offers reason to roll the dice and pay up. Our current BaseballHQ.com projection has him at 30 HR and 20 SB, and those second half skills suggest that speculating on 40 HR/30 SB upside is not all that far-fetched. (Kruse)
2018: 26-64-16-.293 in 433 AB
2019: 41-101-37-.280 in 626 AB

Peter Alonso: Tremendous raw power whose home runs have quickly become the stuff of legend, Alonso predictably has some swing-and-miss in his game, but complements it with solid patience. His 16% walk rate and 0.60 Eye across Double-A and Triple-A last season are both excellent marks. Though he is a clogger on the bases and a subpar defender, Alonso is praised for his work ethic and should at least be competent enough at first base to play every day in the National League. As the premier power hitting prospect in the minors heading into 2019, Alonso is a premium target. (Kullman)
2018 (AA & AAA combined): 36-119-.285 in 478 AB
2019: 53-120-.260 in 597 AB

Elvis Andrus: What the heck happened to Elvis Andrus? Lost in the shuffle of his 2017 breakout was the fact that he stopped running in the second half (5 SB, 11% SBO). That red light persisted through 2018, as Andrus—who hit third in the order for most of the season—swiped just a handful of bags all year. He's on the wrong side of 30 and we can't expect 2017's power surge to return, but Andrus still makes enough contact (83% in 2018) and still has the raw wheels (131 Spd) to return to the .280-ish BA with 25 SB that we came to expect from 2010-17. Keep an eye on TEX batting order news this spring—Andrus's green light might return if he jumps to 1-2, and you're paying a fraction of the cost you would have in previous years. (Bloomfield)
2018: 6-33-5-.256 in 395 AB
2019: 12-72-31-.275 in 600 AB

Harrison Bader: Bader flashed an intriguing power/speed combo in 2018 while also showing a couple disheartening weaknesses. It’s not hard to see 20 HR/20 SB upside here, but absent improvement in ct% and vs. RHP, he could also just as easily find himself on the short-side of a platoon. As such, his current ADP (167) is too high for our liking. (Pyron)
2018: 12-37-15-.264 in 379 AB
2019: 12-39-11-.205 in 347 AB

Josh Bell: Missed two weeks in 2nd half (oblique). Significant sophomore pullback; hr/f regression exposed just how hard it is to clear fences when half of balls in play are GBs. And yet: controls the strike zone well; showed across-the-board gains in 2nd half. For now, a dull CI w/OBP utility. But if he gets the launch angle memo, look out. (Murphy)
2018: 12-62-.261 in 501 AB (49% GB)
2019: 37-116-.277 in 527 AB (44% GB)

Andrew Benintendi: According to BPX and R$, an all-around growth season. But there are warning signs: crashed after strong 1st half (as 1st half xPX foretold), and season-long drop in HctX is worrisome. Overall, a still-developing talent, and combo of plate skills, OBP and SB acumen form a nice foundation. But a return to 20 HR level is not assured. (Murphy)
2018: 16-87-21-.290 in 579 AB
2019: 13-68-10-.266 in 541 AB

Bo Bichette: One of top pure-hitting prospects in minors struggled in 1st half transition to Double-A. Then made significant progress in 2nd half, re-affirming his lofty status. Likely will need to repeat same cycle in Triple-A before he's ready for callup, but his bat (and legs) look to be impactful, and he's not far away. (Murphy)
2018: minors
2019: 11-21-4-.311 in 196 AB (called up on July 29)

Alex Bregman: The Perfect Growth Season? You laugh, but go column by column and note how many 2018 numbers represent improvement over 2017. (SPOILER: Almost all of 'em.) This is the exception to the "Prospect development is not linear" rule. Our minds (and research) say some regression is coming. But our hearts? UP: MVP (Hershey)
2018: 31-103-.286 in 594 AB
2019: 41-119-.296 in 554 AB

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Kris Bryant: 1st half looked sluggish on the surface, but xPX, HctX, Eye suggested all was well. Then shoulder woes cost two months and likely caused 2nd half fade. Drop in OPS vR and xBA are minor concerns, but he's young and talented enough to recover. With health, a return to 2017 production is plausible. (Florimonte)
2017: 29-73-.295 in 549 AB
2018: 13-52-.272 in 389 AB
2019: 31-77-.282 in 543 AB

Kole Calhoun: Dreadful for 2 months, optioned to AAA, returned as a top-20 bat for 3 months. Seasonal totals suppressed by h%, but underneath he boosted HctX/xPX to best since rookie season, and in 2nd half traded contact to recover FB%. Defensive reputation should earn him AB. Expect 2017 but with lower BA, more power. (Florimonte)
2017: 19-71-.244 in 569 AB
2018: 19-57-.208 in 491 AB
2019: 33-74-.232 in 552 AB

Willie Calhoun: Expected ready prospect slogged through 1st half plagued by surprising HR dip. High ct% offers BA floor as we await the power return, but it should be at MLB level as he's conquered Triple-A (.858 OPS in 1004 PA). Bat should become an asset, but tough to expect that right away. (Sporer)
2018: 2-11-.222 in 99 AB
2019: 21-48-.269 in 309 AB

Johan Camargo: More selectivity (doubled bb%) and hr/f surge fueled HR boost as batted ball profile showed only marginal gains. Balanced L/R splits brought full-time 3B role, but could pull a 2018 Marwin Gonzalez if xPX, xBA, and 2nd half bb% losses continue. DN: 10 HR, sub-400 AB. (Sporer)
2018: 19-76-.272 in 464 AB
2019: 7-32-.233 in 232 AB

Travis D’Arnaud: Oft-injured former prospect kept his yearly appointment with the DL—this time as Tommy John surgery shelved him for season after only four games. Contact skills and encouraging hard-contact trends from 2017 still hold true, however, and the catching pool isn't exactly awash with talent. Don't write him off just yet. (Slack)
2017: 16-57-.244 in 348 AB
2018: 1-3-.200 in 15 AB
2019: 16-69-.251 in 351 AB

Paul DeJong: If not following closely, natural to conclude encore to smashing debut was a dud. But in reality, strong power display (17 HR in April, Aug/Sept) bookended fractured hand in May, gradual return to form. Yes, 2017 BA was a stretch, but ct%, bb% creeping in right direction. Plenty of FB, so if he can avoid injury... UP: 35 HR (Olson)
2018:19-68-.241 in 436 AB
2019: 30-78-.233 in 583 AB

Rafael Devers: As we often hear, prospect growth isn’t linear. He hasn’t made the necessary adjustments to MLB… yet. Devers is still a rising star, don’t sleep on him just because he didn’t deliver out of the gate like Soto or Acuna. (Florimonte)
2018: 21-66-.240 in 450 AB
2019: 32-115-.311 in 647 AB

Josh Donaldson: Injuries have limited Donaldson over the past two seasons, but there remains a lot to like in his skill set. Though his ct% and BA have fallen since 2016, neither is bad in today’s game. He continues to be selective at the plate, logging his sixth consecutive season with a double-digit bb%. Even in an injury-riddled 2018, he managed to make quite a bit of hard contact, as evidenced by HctX and xPX, as well as Statcast metrics that include a 41% HH% (MLB average: 34%), 90.2 exit velocity (MLB average: 87.4 mph) and a 10.4 barrel% (MLB average: 6.1%). When coupled with his pre-2018 history of hitting plenty of flyballs (lifetime 39% FB%), the tools are there for another 30+ HR season and some profit at his current 101 ADP. (Pyron)
2018: 8-23-.246 in 187 AB
2019: 37-94-.259 in 549 AB

Mitch Garver: (4/21 Market Pulse) Supposedly second fiddle to the more defensive-oriented (and LHH) Jason Castro, Garver burst out of the gates hitting too well to be denied. With Castro scuffling early, Garver has been getting more than the normal allotment of number-two catcher reps, though the incomparable Willians Astudillo remains a factor as well. Even without getting the majority of the Minnesota catcher ABs, Garver can provide positive fantasy value. (Kullman)
2018: 7-45-.268 in 187 AB
2019: 31-67-.273 in 311 AB

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.: We knew we'd be well below the market on him, but we're blown away by how easy it will be to pass on him at his current price. As a late 3rd-rounder, your odds of getting fair value from him are somewhere around 2%-5… Sure, Mike Trout did it spectacularly in 2012 (though he'd already had 120 AB in the majors), so it's not impossible. But there are a dozen ways the pick could go wrong, with you ending up looking like a fool instead of a genius. (Cederholm)
2019 ADP: 41
2019 15-69-.272 in 464 AB; Rank: 251

Lourdes Gurriel: Put together blistering 17-game run (.423 AVG, 1.086 OPS) but demotion, injuries (concussion, hamstring), and mediocrity outside July (.623 OPS) resulted in uneven season. Strong history of contact, solid HctX/xPX, and Spd provides hope as an end-game gamble. (Sporer)
2018: 11-35-.281 in 249 AB
2019: 20-50-.277 in 314 AB

Yulieski Gurriel: Remains rare fantasy commodity: a late-round BA asset. Struggles vs RHP and a drop in hr/f affected HR total, though excellent ct% establishes floor. Dual eligibility (plus 2B in 15 G lgs) adds a smidge of value, while age will keep his price down. Can be a sneaky complementary roster piece. (Sporer)
2018: 13-85-.291 in 537 AB
2019: 31-104-.298 in 564 AB

Max Kepler: Three good developments in a disappointing season: 1) career-best Eye; 2) continued FB% growth; 3) 76% contact and 119 PX vL. Efforts were also hurt by unlucky h%, though xBA shows promise of 2015 MLE is still out of reach. If you can live with middling BA, he's at the right age for step up in power... UP: 30 HR (Kruse)
2018: 20-58-.224 in 532 AB
2019: 36-90-.252 in 524 AB

Ketel Marte: There's a very good chance that 14 owners in your league will regret not grabbing him when they could have. He has a near-elite contact rate and above-average patience, with power that is trending upward, and he's still only 25… If there's one "big upside" pick on this list, it's Marte. (Cederholm)
2018: 14-59-6-.260 in 520 AB
2019: 32-92-10-.329 in 569 AB

Starling Marte: Has earned $30 or more in three of his last four seasons—only an 80-game PED suspension in 2017 prevented him from a shot at four straight. There are no signs of a slowdown, either: Marte's contact rate has steadily increased throughout his career, the speed is still elite, and he even flashed a nice power uptick last year (105/106 PX/xPX). Marte's five-category production gives him one of the highest floors in the third round. (Bloomfield)
2018: 20-72-33-.277 in 559 AB
2019: 23-82-25-.295 in 539 AB

Jeff McNeil: The problem is playing time… the Mets acquired two second-baggers (Robinson Canó and Jed Lowrie) in the off-season. With Todd Frazier (3B, NYM) at third and two of three OF spots occupied full time, McNeil is squeezed… He's got a nice skill set and we want to draft skills, not roles, so he should be on your radar… he's a guy who's probably 85% likely to outperform his projection. (Cederholm)
2018: 3-19-.329 in 225 AB
2019: 23-75-.318 in 510 AB

Austin Meadows: After two injury-plagued seasons, touted prospect debuted with electric May (4 HR, 3 SB) before PT squeeze and eventual trade. BA contribution hardly assured, but speed and strong xPX make for nice power/speed threat. With AB, potential for... UP: 20 HR, 15 SB. (Slack)
2018: 6-17-5-.287 in 178 AB
2019: 33-89-12-.291 in 530 AB

Matt Olson: Two-year xPX totals and fly-ball lean point to more power upside. A consistent 30-HR threat with a BA that doesn't offend (these days). (Truesdell)
2018: 29-84-.247 in 580 AB
2019: 36-91-.267 in 483 AB

Daniel Palka: Surprise power source, but poor plate approach seals BA fate, HctX and high GB% both point to possible HR downside (see xPX). This pony's trick is a risky one. (Truesdell)
2018: 27-67-.240 in 417 AB
2019: 2-4-.107 in 84 AB

Joc Pederson: Pederson can hit for a lot of power against right-handed pitchers, as shown by his identical 342 AB, 24 HR against them in both 2016 and 2018. He's also made strides in his contact skills, which should prevent him from being a batting average drain, as he's been at times in the past. There will be times you'll want Pederson on your bench, as a couple division foes (SD, SF) boast a lefty-heavy rotation. However, given his power potential and placement at the top of the lineup vs RHP, he has a chance to turn a significant profit on his draft day cost (366 NFBC ADP). (Rudd)
2018: 25-56-.248 in 395 AB
2019: 36-74-.249 in 450 AB

Tommy Pham: Got his running shoes back on with 5 SB in Sept. Should again contribute across the board, with some sneaky value upside in one spot... UP: 30 SB (Truesdell)
2018: 21-63-15-.275 in 494 AB
2019: 21-68-25-.273 in 567 AB

Jorge Polanco: Just when we thought he was ready to break out, drug suspension dashed those hopes. PRO: Gains vR give reason to speculate again. CON: Steady losses vL put full-time role in doubt; poor SB% keeps SB upside at bay; BA driven by a hit rate that won't repeat. Still owns that upside, may still be a year away. (Nickrand)
2018: 6-42-.288 in 302 AB
2019: 22-79-.295 in 631 AB

Albert Pujols: Drafting Pujols is not an upside play; he’s not going to break out…. His playing time is also at risk…. But don’t overlook him at the end of a very deep draft. At his current ADP of 546, he’s basically free. With playing time he’s very likely to turn a profit on that reserve pick. Rather than trying to hit a home run with that end-gamer, you could settle for a double (which he’ll run into a single). (Florimonte)
2018 :19-64-.245 in 465 AB
2019 23-93-.244 in 491 AB

José Ramírez: (May 6 Fact/Fluke) The extremely poor power output and batting average that José Ramírez has posted so far in 2019 is a fluke. We expect him to be an asset in all five offensive categories going forward. Exercise excruciating patience. (Boyd)
On 5/6/2019: 2-9-9-.200 in 125 AB
After 5/6/2019: 21-74-15-.277 in 357 AB

Anthony Rendon: Prior injury-prone label firmly is in the rear view now. 3 reasons he hasn't reached his ceiling yet? 1) Barrel rate soared from middle-of-pack to top 40; 2) GB% steadily declining; 3) Keeps showing more thump against righties. A $25 bid could net $10 of profit. UP: 30 HR (Nickrand)
2018: 24-92-.308 in 529 AB
2019: 34-126-.319 in 545 AB

Austin Riley: Impressive .282/.346/.464 slash line in 291 Triple-A AB, though knee sprain in June cost him a month. Elevated h%hid some underlying contact issues, but the power is legit and PX says it could translate immediately. Not far from making it to Atlanta, but long swing hints at BA risk and rocky short-term transition. (Bloomfield)
2019: 18-49-.226 in 274 AB

Eddie Rosario: Built on 2017 finish with even better 1st half, as LD%/FB% surged. But then: HctX plunged, GBs returned, and he stopped running. Sore shoulder in late June cost him just one game, but may help explain collapse, and quad injury ended season early. Should bounce back with health, and could be the year for... UP: 30 HR. (Rudd)
2018: 24-77-.288 in 559 AB
2019: 32-109-.276 in 562 AB

Carlos Santana: We suspect that owners are scared off by his second-half fade or his .229 BA, but his xBA was 25 points higher. He's not guaranteed 5th-round value, but you can wait... and wait... and wait... to grab him. He's a clear bargain at his ADP [189]. (Cederholm)
2018: 24-86-.229 in 560 AB
2019: 34-93-.281 in 573 AB

Jorge Soler: Scorching start (.324 BA, 5 HR in first 108 AB), then broken toe ended season in June. Can't glean much from limited sample, but PX/xPX gains were encouraging, and a bit more contact drove xBA to respectable level. Still carries some (post) post-hype profit potential, so he's worth a late dart throw. (Bloomfield)
2018: 9-28-.265 in 223 AB
2019: 48-117-.265 in 589 AB

Fernando Tatis, Jr.: Despite being the youngest player in the double-A Texas League, Tatis posted a fine .286/.355/.507 line with 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases before a mid-July left thumb fracture ended his 2018 campaign. Once healthy, however, the phenom picked up right where he left off, starring in the Dominican Winter League. While his powerful stroke leads to a low contact rate, those strikeout concerns are offset by a solid walk rate. The power-speed package is absolutely worth a premium investment. (Kullman)
2018 (AA): 16-43-16-.286 in 353 AB
2019: 22-53-16-.317 in 334 AB

Gleyber Torres: Strong rookie season lived up to the top-prospect clippings. What looks like a 2nd-half fade is more like a Sept crash (.233 BA, 56 xPX); certainly not the first rookie to hit The Wall near season's end. We will still need to see what he looks like when/if he adjusts. But there's this... UP: 30 HR/15 SB, .275 BA (Pyron)
2018: 24-77-.271 in 431 AB
2019: 38-90-.278 in 546 AB

Daniel Vogelbach: Power/patience profile is well established, but despite a .290 BA in 342 games at AAA, he hasn't yet put it together in MLB. Issues defensively and vL are impediments to an everyday role. However, if opportunity arises, he profiles as a cheap power source. (Pyron)
2018: 4-13-.207 in 87 AB
2019: 30-76-.208 in 462 AB