Top prospect Holliday ready for Baltimore

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Baltimore Orioles
NEWS: According to reports, Baltimore is expected to call up IF Jackson Holliday on Wednesday.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: After being a somewhat surprising cut before Opening Day, Holliday, the 2024 HQ100’s top-ranked prospect hit well (.333/.482/.595) in 10 games for AAA-Norfolk to earn a quick call-up. At this time, the corresponding move for Holliday’s promotion is not known, but it would not be surprising if Tony Kemp, who has hit .000/.100/.000 in 10 PA after being a last-minute addition to Baltimore’s bench, is designated for assignment. While Baltimore could limit Holliday’s exposure to left-handed starters, at least to start, he should slot into the lineup most days at second base, starting alongside Gunnar Henderson at shortstop and Jordan Westburg at third base. The player whose playing time outlook is most negatively affected by Holliday’s promotion is Ramón Urías, who will likely move to a bench role after starting most games against right-handed starters in the early part of the season. Jorge Mateo, who has started mostly at second base and exclusively against left-handed starters thus far, could also see a slight downtick in at-bats but still should start against lefties most games between the team’s floating designated hitter and the possibility that one of Holliday or Cedric Mullins sits.
Williams

Houston Astros
NEWS: Houston placed Framber Valdez on the IL with left elbow inflammation and recalled RHP Spencer Arrighetti from Triple-A.
IMPACT: High 
BHQ SPIN: The IL stint is not a surprise after Valdez was scratched from his scheduled Monday start. There was no additional news on the severity of the injury or timeline, but for now we’re docking Valdez some projected innings and moving them to Arrighetti, who is scheduled to debut on Wednesday against Kansas City. Arrighetti, our  #6-rated Houston prospect with a 7C rating, has strikeout potential but shaky control. We’ll continue to update the Astros innings projection as more info on Valdez becomes available.
Hershey


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Chicago White Sox
NEWS: Chicago 3B Yoán Moncada left Tuesday’s game early with a groin injury.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: Moncada suffered the injury running out a grounder and collapsed before being helped off the field. It appears that an IL stint is on its way.  Moncada had been playing through minor soreness in his hip and groin area in recent days. If the IL trip comes to pass, Lenyn Sosa will likely see time at 3B. We’ll start off with a 10% bump to Sosa and take the same amount from Moncada.
Green

Minnesota Twins
NEWS: Minnesota acquired RHP Michael Tonkin from the New York Mets and placed RF Max Kepler on the 10-day IL.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: Kepler bruised his right knee when he fouled off a ball in the opener on March 28 and has started the season 1-for-20. He last appeared in a game April 6. Kepler will be eligible to be activated April 17, but there was no timetable for his return. Manuel Margot, Willi Castro and Austin Martin will see action in the OF and we’re giving an extra 5% to Martin at Kepler’s expense. The Twins sent cash to the Mets for Tonkin, who was designated for assignment on Friday. He took two losses in three games, with six hits and two runs allowed in 4 IP. Tonkin had a 4.28 ERA with 75 K/23 BB  in  80 IP with Atlanta in 2023. He will see low-leverage situations to start. We’ve bumped Tonkin 1% and deducted 1% from Daniel Duarte, who was placed on the IL on Monday.
Green

Seattle Mariners
NEWS: Seattle placed RHP Cody Bolton and RHP Collin Snider on the 15-day injured list and recalled RHP Tyson Miller and RHP Brett de Geus from AAA-Tacoma.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN:  Bolton had been acting as a multiple inning reliever thus far in 2024 and had the most innings out of the bullpen. Overall, both Bolton and Snider were in the back end of the bullpen and not seeing many leverage situations. Miller will jump into the long-relief spot and de Geus will also find himself in the back of the bullpen. We’ve slightly reduced playing time for both Bolton and Snider and given that time to both Miller and de Geus.
Davison

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Milwaukee Brewers
NEWS: INF Oliver Dunn has started nine of the last ten games and led off for the Brewers in the last three games.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: Dunn was a bit of a surprise to make the team out of spring training, but in the early going he seems to have a hot hand that manager Pat Murphy is riding for now. In the early going Dunn is 8-for-32 with one HR and two SBs. The primary playing time loser in this situation has been Andruw Monasterio who thus far in 2024 only has three ABs. Joey Ortiz has also not seen as many ABs as many expected, but does still seem to be the go-to bat off the bench and could work into more playing time if Dunn starts to struggle. We’ve increased Dunn’s playing time (+40%) while reducing playing time for Monasterio (-30%) and Ortiz (-5%). Right now we have Dunn and Ortiz around 50% total playing time for the rest of the season and will continue to adjust.
Davison

Washington Nationals
NEWS: Washington placed Josiah Gray on the 15-day IL with elbow soreness and recalled Joan Adon.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: So far the news on Gray is positive. Latest reports indicate that while he has a flexor strain, it is muscular, not ligament related. Nevertheless, we’ve knocked Gray’s projection down to 7%, as we work on the assumption that the Nationals will be careful with Gray. Adon compiled significant innings with Washington in each of the last two seasons, but didn’t fare well: 5.18 xERA, K-BB% of 7%, and BPV of 46. Adon started for the Nationals on Tuesday and lasted four innings, yielding three hits, three walks and a run while striking out two. For now, Adon is the beneficiary of most of the innings deducted from Gray’s projection.
Hertz

San Diego Padres
NEWS: The Padres optioned 3B Graham Pauley to Triple-A El Paso and recalled C Brett Sullivan in a corresponding move. 
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN: Pauley, who had been sharing the strong side of a platoon at 3B with IF/OF Tyler Wade, was off to a slow start (.133/.133/.333 in 15 PA) in his first appearance at the major league level. He had only 88 PA above High-A heading into the 2024 season, so will now look to get full-time ABs and an opportunity to work on his defense at Triple-A El Paso. We believe he will likely still see an opportunity with the Padres at some point this season, so have kept his total PT at 5%. With 3B Manny Machado still having no timetable for a return to 3B, Wade should have a full-time role against righties and we have increased his PT at 3B by 15% accordingly. We also moved 10% of Machado’s PT from 3B to DH. With C Luis Campusano off to a strong start (.326/.341/.465 with 1 HR and RBI in 44 PA), Sullivan will split backup C duties with C Kyle Higashioka who has just one hit and 7 K in his first 11 PA. We have allocated 5% of Higashioka’s playing time to Sullivan. The Padres carried three catchers at times last season, but would expect another move would be forthcoming in the next week or two.
Gannon

New York Mets
NEWS: Designated hitter J.D. Martinez received a cortisone shot for back tightness.
IMPACT: Medium 
BHQ SPIN:  A few days ago, Martinez had been expected to join the Mets for its series in Atlanta that began Monday. Then he was likely to be available this coming weekend. Now he will be shut down for several days. As a result of the back issues, we’ve knocked his projected playing time down to 65%. For now, the main beneficiary is D.J. Stewart; however, if Martinez’ issues persist, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets turn to Mark Vientos, who has a .956 OPS over 39 plate appearances at Triple-A Syracuse.
Hertz

New York Mets
NEWS: New York designated Julio Teheran for assignment and called up reliever Dedniel Núñez
IMPACT: Low 
BHQ SPIN: The Mets had just signed the veteran Teheran and indicated he would join the team’s starting rotation. He did, indeed, start on April 8th, and things did not go well. In 2.2. Innings, he yielded six hits, two walks, and four runs. It appears the last spot in the Mets rotation will now go to José Butto, at least for now. Butto pitched well late in 2023, and had a PQS-3 spot start last Thursday. He may be worth a look by fantasy managers in deep leagues. The 27-year old Nunez will be making his MLB debut when he toes the rubber for the Mets. More information on Nunez will be found in the Daily Call-ups column.
Hertz

Pittsburgh Pirates
NEWS: Pittsburgh catcher Jason Delay has been shut down from all baseball activities.
IMPACT: Low 
BHQ SPIN: Team officials have said that it's undetermined yet whether Delay, currently on the 10-day injured list, will be transferred to the 60-day IL. Meanwhile catcher Yasmani Grandal is closing in on a timetable for his return. Grandal has not appeared in a game this season because of plantar fasciitis in his left foot but is expected to begin running the bases in the coming days. We’ve deducted 5% PT from Delay and given 5% to Joey Bart, who homered in his first PIT at-bat and has 4 RBI in his first two games. 
Green

Cincinnati Reds
NEWS: Reliever Tejay Antone will have season-ending surgery to repair his right elbow; Carson Spiers was called up from AAA-Louisville to take his place in the bullpen.
IMPACT: Low 
BHQ SPIN: Antone (-3%), a once-promising arm in the Reds’ organization, has had tough injury luck the past few seasons, logging just nine MLB appearances since 2022. Spiers (+2%), who logged 13 IP last season over four appearances (two starts), is projected to fill a long-relief role in the pen. With an xERA of 6.31 and K-BB% of 7%, Spiers appears to be more of a role-player at the MLB level.
Larson

Milwaukee Brewers
NEWS: Milwaukee sent LHP Aaron Ashby to AAA-Nashville and promoted RHP Kevin Herget. LHP Wade Miley is also expected to return from the IL on April 10 .
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: Moving Ashby back to Triple-A was likely a combination of him not quite being ready (he gave up four ERs with two walks and two strikeouts in his start on Monday) and the return of Miley to the rotation. Miley brings quite soft skills with his return to the rotation with a projected 8% K-BB% and 4.73 xERA. He has been successful at keeping his ERA a run lower than his xERA since 2021 and it is to be seen if he can continue that run. Herget has seen some time in the majors over the past two seasons, but he has not seen much success with a 5.74 ERA. Herget will see time at the back of the bullpen in the short-term. We’ve reduced Ashby’s innings (-1%) and given those innings to Herget, but we do expect Ashby to be back sooner than later if health cooperates.
Davison

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