RELIEVERS: Speed bumps

This week, we look at some relievers anomalies and what they tell us looking forward. Take a typical reliever at this point in the season. He has around 20-25 innings pitched. Let's see what kinds of ERA changes we can generate for 25 innings:

25 IP         7ER  8ER  9ER 10ER
===========  ==== ==== ==== ==== 
pitcher ERA  2.52 2.88 3.24 3.60

Thus, a reliever with 25 straight one-inning outings allowing seven ER along the way has a 2.52 ERA. But if he then has an outing where he gives up three ER without recording an out, it generates a change in ERA from 2.52 to 3.60--overnight. Should you cut this reliever before it happens again?

For Sean Marshall (LHP, CIN), that game came on April 26 against the Giants. He allowed three ER on...

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