Big risky gambles
Mar 8 2026
This week, the column looks at where closers and relievers are going in ADP over the past few weeks in the NFBC as a gauge of how owners are valuing these players and then comparing these valuations against the projected skill sets of these relievers to find those where the skills do not measure up to the valuation. The column will also point out injury risk versus ADP in some instances. The goal is to steer away from these riskier closers/relievers in favor of other closers/relievers at similar values.
Let's start with the first 100 ADP--roughly 6-7 rounds into a 15-team mixed draft. There are three closers in this group. Here are their projections:
ADP 1-100 | SV | HD | IP | xERA | WHIP | K% | K-BB% | HR/F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helsley, Ryan BAL | 32 | 0 | 58 | 3.68 | 1.28 | 27% | 17% | 10% | 71 |
| Hader, Josh... |
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