(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Webb, Tellez, F. Reyes, K. Ruiz, K. Thompson

Facts & Flukes

Greg Pyron

Aug 24 2022 12:05am

(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Webb, Tellez, F. Reyes, K. Ruiz, K. Thompson

Greg Pyron

Aug 24 2022

Webb can’t quite match breakout 2021 … Logan Webb (RHP, SF) enjoyed a terrific 2021 season, boasting a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 148 IP. He has followed that up with a 3.08 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 155 IP in 2022. How have the underlying skills held up?

Year   IP   ERA/xERA  BB%   K%  xBB%  SwK   Vel  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  HR/F
====  ===  =========  ===  ===  ====  ===  ====  ========  =====  ====
2019   40  5.22/4.21   8%  21%   13%  10%  92.9  49/28/23  34/66   18%
2020   54  5.47/4.49  10%  19%    9%   9%  92.7  52/26/22  35/64   11%
2021  148  3.03/2.81   6%  27%    7%  13%  92.9  61/21/19  31/74   13%
2022  155  3.08/3.42   7%  20%    7%  11%  91.9  58/19/23  29/75   10%

Pretty well, but there has been some slippage:

The biggest change has been a significant reduction in K%. He hasn’t gotten as many swings-and-misses on his slider in 2022 and that has dragged his SwK% down a couple ticks (2022 xK%: 22%).
His velocity is also down 1 mph in 2022.
Webb's propensity to pound the zone and limit walks is a positive, as he ranks in the 67th percentile in BB%.
He continues to be able to induce lots of groundballs and that helps him work out of jams and keep the ball in the yard (lifetime: 0.6 HR/9 in 397 IP).
His xERA indicates he has been closer to a 3.50 ERA pitcher in 2022.

Even with the SwK%/K% slippage, Webb’s ERA hasn’t changed much from 2021 due to the strength of his other skills and a little luck. However, he’ll need to regain the swing-and-miss stuff he displayed in 2021 in order to maintain a near-3.00 ERA. As is, look for the 25-year-old’s ERA to rise closer to 3.50 going forward.

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Tellez delivers … We noted in the 2022 Baseball Forecaster that Rowdy Tellez (1B, MIL) flashed 2020’s intriguing power/contact skills again in the second half of 2021 and that a small investment could pay off nicely in 2022. Through 447 PA, he has a .236 BA with 26 HR. Can he keep it going?

Year   PA  HR    BA/xBA   bb%  ct%  GB/LD/FB  h%  HctX   PX/xPX  Brl%
====  ===  ==  =========  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ==== 
2018* 501  15  .263/.268    7   78  38/26/36  31   115  106/138   12%
2019* 514  27  .249/.257    8   69  39/24/38  30    99  138/114   13%
2020  127   8  .283/.288    9   82  46/20/34  28   123  125/ 97    8%
2021* 383  14  .242/.252    7   77  41/21/38  27   112  104/111   12%
2022  447  26  .236/.264   11   78  39/15/46  24   135  148/146   14%
*-Inc. MLEs

The skills suggest things could get even better:

The power metrics, including xPX, Brl%, and FB% have never been better. His home stadium doesn’t hurt either (American Family Field: +15% LHB HR).
The ct%/HctX combo suggests he deserves a better BA and xBA agrees. A low h% is to blame for the BA/xBA discrepancy (lifetime: 27% h%).
Unsurprisingly, most of the damage has come vR, but he has posted respectable numbers vL (lifetime: .798 OPS and 59 HR in 1,039 PA vR; .738 OPS and 11 HR in 342 PA vL).

Tellez has already logged more PA in 2022 than he has in any prior season and is on pace to approach 600 PA, barring injury. He has made the most of the increased playing time and has provided an excellent return on investment for those who acquired him near his 349 ADP. The 27-year-old’s batting average should move closer to his .264 xBA going forward and he’s likely to finish with 30-35 HR.

Reyes bounces back from horrid 1H … It was a brutal first half of 2022 for Franmil Reyes (OF/DH, CHC), as he batted .211 with 6 HR and a 57% ct% in 200 PA. He started showing glimmers of hope in July prior to being put on waivers by the Guardians and has a .341 batting average with 2 HR in his first 43 PA with the Cubs. Has there been much change in his skills?

Year   PA    BA/xBA   HR bb/ct%  h% HctX  GB/LD/FB HR/F   PX/xPX Brl%  Fbd^
====  ===  =========  == ======  == ====  ======== ====  ======= ====  ====
2018* 521  .275/.246  27  10/68  35  111  49/21/30  30%  135/115  12%   343
2019  548  .249/.255  37   9/68  29  112  44/21/34  31%  145/140  15%   351
2020  241  .275/.214   9  10/67  37  100  50/16/33  18%  111/104  13%   346
2021  466  .254/.250  30   9/64  32  115  46/18/36  31%  171/153  17%   351
2022  327  .231/.211  11   5/63  33   95  45/18/37  15%  117/121  14%   326
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2H-22 127  .260/.246   5   2/72  33   97  47/17/36  16%  122/ 90  N/A   311 
*Includes MLEs
^ average flyball distance

His ct% has rebounded from 1H crash, but he’s also had some luck:

The 1H ct% was brutal, but he started showing small signs of getting on track just prior to leaving Cleveland and has carried that into August. His lifetime .248 xBA sets a reasonable baseline going forward.
His 2022 Chase% of 29% isn’t out of whack with his normal rate (lifetime: 28%; MLB average: 28%), but his 37% Chase Contact% is obscenely low (lifetime: 44%; MLB average: 58%).
Though xPX is down a touch overall, it’s still in good shape. His Brl% and average exit velocity remain elite (92nd percentile). Interestingly, his average flyball distance has fallen sharply from his past marks, which explains the HR/F.
His propensity to beat the ball into the ground caps his HR upside.
He’s capable of chipping in 2-4 SB despite 19th percentile Statcast measured sprint speed.

Reyes got off to a terrible start in 2022, largely stemming from poor pitch selection and chasing outside the zone. The change of scenery seems to have helped, as he and Cubs assistant hitting coach Johnny Washington were familiar with one another from their days with the Padres. Reyes has been more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone in the second half, particularly since joining the Cubs, and that has helped. While the 2H ct% isn’t likely to stick, the 26-year-old seems to have put those 1H woes behind him.

Ruiz shows strong plate skills … Keibert Ruiz’s (C, WAS) prospect pedigree and fine showing in 96 MLB PA in 2021 (.273 BA and 3 HR) catapulted him to a 146 ADP heading into 2022. He has delivered a .244 batting average with 6 HR and 6 SB in 385 PA. How are things under the hood?

Year   PA  HR/SB    BA/xBA   bb%/ct%  GB/LD/FB  h%   PX/xPX HR/F  Brl%  Spd/SBO
====  ===  =====  =========  =======  ========  ==  ======= ====  ====  =======
2018# 397  10/ 0  .240/ N/A    5/90      N/A    24   58/N/A  N/A   N/A   87/ 1%
2019^ 338   5/ 0  .236/ N/A    7/92      N/A    24   35/N/A  N/A   N/A   95/ 0%
2020    8   1/ 0  .250/.264    0/63   20/20/60  25  214/123  33%   20%  100/ 0%
2021* 403  20/ 0  .280/.274    7/88   42/15/43  27  118/ 64   9%    3%   92/ 0%
2022  385   6/ 6  .244/.263    7/86   42/23/35  27   67/ 87   6%    4%   61/ 8%
#Double-A MLEs
^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
*Includes MLEs

It’s a mixed bag:

Plate skills are in great shape. That elite ct% gives him a sturdy BA floor and xBA hints at some upside.
The quality of contact has not been good, as evidenced by a 31% HH% that ranks in the 11th percentile and a Brl% in the 12th percentile. His xPX has also been subpar, but it also appears he has been slighly unlucky in terms of HR/F.
What power Ruiz possesses has come vR (lifetime: 10 HR and 84 PX in 338 AB vR; 0 HR and 28 PX in 107 AB vL).
Ruiz’s Statcast measured sprint speed checks in at the 10th percentile. He hadn’t swiped a bag since Rookie League ball back in 2015 and hadn’t attempted to steal since 2018 (Double-A), but he has been successful on 6 of 7 tries in 2022.

Ruiz has shown terrific plate skills throughout the minors and so far at the MLB level. While that gives him a nice BA floor, he’ll need to make better quality contact in order to reach his full potential. Given his poor speed and SB history, we wouldn’t count on the stolen bases to keep coming at this pace. The 23-year-old still has work to do, but those in keeper leagues should remain patient.

Thompson has struggled as a starter … Keegan Thompson (RHP, CHC) began 2021 as a reliever before posting a 7.11 ERA in five starts ahead of a season-ending shoulder injury. He also opened 2022 in the bullpen, sporting a 1.17 ERA in 23 IP before moving to the rotation in May. Through 17 starts in 2022, he has a 4.83 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 78.1 IP. How are the underlying skills?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  BB%   K% xBB%  SwK  GB/LD/FB  H%/S% HR/F   Vel
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  === ====  ===  ========  ===== ====  ====
2021   53  3.38  4.85  13%  23%   9%  11%  43/22/35  29/84  17%  93.9
2022  104  3.97  4.35   8%  20%   8%  10%  40/19/41  29/75  12%  93.4
---------------------------------------------------------------------
22-SP  78  4.83   N/A   8%  19%   9%  N/A  35/22/42   N/A   14%   N/A

Overall, they’re below-average and they’re worse as a starter:

He’s a tick below the MLB average for qualified starting pitchers in both SwK% and K% (11% SwK%/22% K%).
His fastball velocity is down a smidge from 2021 and it’s worth noting that it has fallen sharply of late. Monthly splits are as follows: 93.8, 93.9, 93.8, 93.4, and 92.4 mph. His August 20 placement on the IL with lower back tightness likely contributed to the velocity decline.
The improved BB% was foretold by 2021 xBB% and backed by his 2022 xBB%.
HR have been a problem throughout his career.
The ERA/xERA gap indicates he has been a bit fortunate
The skills he has displayed as a starter in 2022 have not been good.

Thompson has just 157 MLB IP under his belt, but the early returns suggest he’s a better fit in the bullpen. As a starting pitcher, he has a 4.94 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9% K-BB%, and 1.5 HR/9 in 94.2 IP compared to a 2.00 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 15% K-BB%, and 1.1 HR/9 in 63 IP as a reliever. The 27-year-old has a low ceiling in either role, but could be a possible matchups play against weaker offenses when healthy.