Lineups: Looking at Half-Year and Team-Level Trends

In our final rendition of the Lineups Outlook, there’s an undercurrent across the league affecting future lineup decisions. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, team’s have realized their best hitter should slot second in their lineup. Since he already explored this facet, please use the link as a reference point. 

For this week’s post, I explored team results from the first-half versus the second-half in three categories: on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). As one could predict, there’s overlap between the teams bubbling towards the top in each statistical indicator, but some intriguing players for next season will be covered after one digests the charts. 

First, here’s a link to the split differences for each team’s OPS in the first-half against their results after the All-Star break, in games played through Sept. 14. No one needs to point out that Atlanta represents a terrific run environment from a fantasy perspective, it’s also apparent having Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman atop the Dodgers insulates their success. However, seeing teams like Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle faring better in the second-half might help identify players of interest for next season. 

Now take the data from a wOBA perspective to see how all 30 MLB teams stacked up by half in the same timeframe. 

Third, here's wRC+ for each team by seasonal half: 

Although not mentioned above, the Twins have also improved their run production in the second-half, and health permitting, one of their players will be a target for next season, along with two other players who could open the season as their team’s second-place hitter. 

Royce Lewis (3B, MIN)
Without being privy to how the Twins will construct their lineup next year, one cannot overlook the breakout season Lewis has put together. Talent has not been an issue, it’s about remaining in the lineup. Can he display the DNA for health? This remains the question. 

Even though the team has kept Jorge Polanco in the second spot in the batting order, one hopes Lewis can displace him from this slot next season. He’s hit fifth most often in 2023, but during his time batting third, he’s racked up 11 runs, two doubles, three home runs, 16 RBI and three stolen bases with a .283/.356/.491 slash line. 

During the second half, he’s scored 21 runs with five doubles, nine home runs, 31 RBI, four stolen bases (in five attempts) and a .276/.356/.581 slash, along with a .937 OPS. Those who remained patient reaped the rewards of his recent spike in fantasy-enticing results. A healthy Byron Buxton may cloud where Lewis bats next year, but if he’s second or third, wheels up from a fantasy perspective. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS/3B, KC)
He appeared in this weekly column on multiple occasions, but struggled as the leadoff batter but thrived in the second spot in the lineup. Through 84 games, 83 games started, he accrued 367 plate appearances scoring 46 runs (0.13 runs per plate appearance) while producing 18 doubles, five triples, 17 home runs, 57 RBI and 28 stolen bases (in 33 attempts—84.8 percent success rate). He slashed a robust .308/.347/.541 in this sample along with generating a 123 sOPS+ per Baseball-Reference. Although his runs per plate appearance falls just below league average for second-place batters, one hopes his team’s run environment will improve moving forward. 

Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia worked well together in the top two spots in the lineup in the second-half, perhaps forging a foundation the Royals can build around. Many debated about taking Witt Jr. in the first round this preseason, now the debate might shift into how high one should reach targeting him in 2024, especially if his 7 percent drop in strikeout percentage after the All-Star break sticks. 

Zack Gelof (2B, OAK)
Despite a limited sample size, and lacking prospect pedigree others possessed entering this season, Gelof has helped fuel a resurgent A’s offense in the second half. He logged his most plate appearances while batting second. Over 175 plate appearances, he’s scored 26 runs with 11 doubles, 10 home runs, 21 RBI, seven stolen bases in eight attempts (87.5 percent success rate) and a .272/.337/.532 slash line. While others at his position garner headlines, he may be a steal in 2024 drafts or auctions as a middle infielder providing numbers across the board below the radar, especially with his team concept scaring some away, so heed the charts above and keep him in mind next spring. 

 

Hitting Streamers (Sept. 18 through Sept. 24)

Yoán Moncada, 3B (CHW): Those in points league should heed his 34.8 strikeout percentage over his last 46 plate appearances. However, he’s launched three home runs, driving in eight runs with a .326/.370/.558 slash line, may actually be healthy and finish the season strong. Ride the .395 wOBA and hope the power surge continues. 

Luis Campusano, C (SD): If one needs a catcher replacement, his team will face four right-handed starters next week. He’s hitting .294 against them this year with four doubles, four home runs and 19 RBI through 106 plate appearances.

Jacob Young, OF (WAS): For our fantasy managers searching for stolen bases on the wire, he’s swiped four bases over his last 47 plate appearances, all against right-handed pitchers and the Nationals will match-up with six of them during their seven games next scoring period. Giddy up. 

Thanks for reading this column all season long, and please digest all the great content available daily at BaseballHQ. Also, please consider joining us at First Pitch Arizona in November, it’s worth every penny. Stay safe, be well and best of luck procuring those championships. 

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