Playing Dodgeball, 2024

We've taken a rosy approach to most of the Speculator columns so far this season. "UP:" siders (hitterspitchers), diving into pitch mix changes, or speculating on recency bias rebounders.

It's time to flip that switch with a more pessimistic tune this week — dodging those potential duds early in drafts.

Stepping on early-round landmines can quickly wipe out any gains made hitting on a late breakout, so instead of dreaming on what some players' 80th-percentile outcome might look like, we need to consider their 20th-percentile outcome as well.

This week, we'll tour the first few rounds to uncover potential missteps as we make the case against several early picks. Some of this may seem like blasphemy—these are premier players going...


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