RESEARCH: Workin' the Split Shift 1: Hitters

Judging the long-term value of major-league rookies is one of the most challenging tasks for any prognosticator. The Baseball Forecaster identifies a player's second-half performance and BPI as a key indicator of future success. From our Encyclopedia of Fanalytics:

"All players must 'adjust to the competition' at every level of professional play. Players often get off to fast or slow starts. During their second tour at that level is when we get to see whether the slow starters have caught up or whether the league has figured out the fast starters. That second half 'adjustment' period is a good baseline for projecting the subsequent season, in the majors or minors."

While this method has proven to work for those rookies who've...


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