ROTISSERIE: Avoiding SP disasters with PQS
Jul 9 2020
If a 162-game baseball season is a marathon, then a 60-game season is most definitely a sprint. That requires a different approach to player selection and in-season roster management. For example, you can’t wait a month for a struggling player to turn things around, as the season will be nearly half over by then.
In a short season, variability is everything (h/t: Joe Sheehan). For example, Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, LA), a career .278 hitter, was hitting .370 after 60 games in 2019, but finished with a .305 BA on the season. He had a 34% LD% over the first 60 games, well above his career average of 20%. His LD% the rest of the way? It was 20%, right in line with his career average.
This is just one example of how small samples can produce...
Almost!
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