Organization Reports


2019 Organization Report: San Diego Padres

by Alec Dopp

Organization Grades

Hitting: A- ... Pitching: A ... Top-end Talent: A ... Depth: A ... Overall: A

Minor League Affiliates

Triple-A: El Paso (Pacific Coast League)
Double-A: San Antonio (Texas League)
High-A: Lake Elsinore (California League)
Low-A: Fort Wayne (Midwest League)
Short-season: Tri-City (Northwest League)
Rookie: AZL Padres (Arizona League)

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1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS) ... 6-3, 185 ... R/R ... 20 ... 2015 FA (DR)
YearTeam (LG)ABBA/OBP/Slgbb%ct% EyeHR/SB
2017Fort Wayne (Midw)431.281/.390/.52015710.6021/29
2017San Antonio (Tex)55.255/.281/.3274690.121/3
2018San Antonio (Tex)353.286/.355/.5079690.3016/16
2019Amarillo (Tex)5.400/.625/.40038803.000/1
2019San Diego (NL)334.317/.379/.5908670.2722/16
Comments: Dominican SS who tore up AA in 2018 and already has established power/speed ability. Long, lean levers generate quality bat speed required for plus raw power to pull-side. Aggressive hitter with some swing-and-miss tendencies that could cap his HR production early on. Gifted athlete with smooth actions and plus arm for either SS or 3B.

Development Path: Tatis spent all of 2018 in the Double-A Texas League and, despite clamors for a call-up, did not see playing time with the MLB roster in September. Expect him to start 2019 in the PCL, though he could be up as early as May.

Fantasy Impact: Tatis possesses rare raw power that could translate into 30-35 HR at his peak, and he should grab around 15-20 SB per season in the early stages of his career. There's some risk involved with an otherwise pedestrian ct% right now, but it's a gamble worth taking, as this is a premium overall talent.

Upside Grade: 9C

2. MacKenzie Gore (LHP) ... 6-3, 180 ... 20 ... 2017 (1) HS (NC)
2017Azl Padres (Ariz)
2018Fort Wayne (Midw)60.24.451.3002.711.04.1.251
2019Lake Elsinore (Calif)
2019Amarillo (Tex)
Comments: Tall, lean LH with front-line SP look and potential for four above-average pitches. Uses big leg kick and has moving parts in delivery, but shows advanced command of 92-94 mph FB and complements with plus downer CB. Still ironing out CU, but shows feel of it along with useable SL. Innings were controlled in 2018; will likely be turned loose now.

Development Path: Gore's combination of size, projectability, deception and velocity portends a future #1/2 SP down the road. For now, he likely starts 2019 in High-A with a chance to reach the majors as a September call-up in 2020.

Fantasy Impact: Gore's fantasy skillset includes potential for quality Dom returns and innings-eating ability as a front-line starting pitcher. A lot can happen over the next two years of his development, but he is one of the most advanced teenage arms in the minors right now.

Upside Grade: 9C

3. Chris Paddack (RHP) ... 6-4, 195 ... 23 ... 2015 (8) HS (TX)
2016Fort Wayne (Midw)14.00.641.0001.914.87.8.208
2017Fort Wayne (Midw)
2018Lake Elsinore (Calif)
2018San Antonio (Tex)37.21.910.7201.
2019San Diego (NL)140.23.330.9802.
Comments: Strike-thrower who had impressive 2018 campaign back from Tommy John surgery. Tops out at 98 mph and sits 93-95 with plus FB that he manipulates speed and shape of. Owns elite CU that tumbles out of the zone with quality velocity separation. Has tightened up CB; solid-average pitch. Works ahead regularly and is always in control of the game.

Development Path: Paddack will likely start 2019 back where he ended 2018: Double-A. He'll need to work on pitching a bit deeper into games as well as further refining his CB, but this is close to a finished product and he could be up after the All-Star break.

Fantasy Impact: With some of the best command and control in the minors, Paddack will hit the ground running when he does make his MLB debut and will be an instant source of Dom. Long-term, he's a safe bet to be a quality #2/3 SP for a first-division club.

Upside Grade: 9C

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4. Francisco Mejia (C) ... 5-10, 175 ... B/R ... 23 ... 2012 FA (DR)
YearTeam (LG)ABBA/OBP/Slgbb%ct% EyeHR/SB
2018Columbus (IL)305.279/.328/.4266810.317/0
2018El Paso (PCL)122.328/.364/.5825800.287/0
2018San Diego (NL)56.179/.258/.3758660.263/0
2019El Paso (PCL)63.365/.411/.7467840.504/0
2019San Diego (NL)226.265/.316/.4385750.238/1
Comments: Compact, switch-hitting CA acquired via trade last July. Possesses good feel to hit via compact, quick stroke; hunts fastballs aggressively. Spray hitter who produces line drive contact from both sides with potentially more power to come in swing. Chance to stay behind dish with strong arm and has improved footwork behind plate. Could move to RF.

Development Path: Mejia will have a good chance to make San Diego's Opening Day roster. The biggest question in his development at this point is whether he has the skillset to stick at CA long-term, but his bat should find its way into the lineup regularly from the get-go.

Fantasy Impact: If Mejia sticks at CA, he has the chance to produce quality BA returns while producing around 15-18 HR annually, which is quite valuable. A move to the OF would diminish his value considerably, so keep tabs on how the Padres handle him next season.

Upside Grade: 8B

5. Luis Urias (2B) ... 5-9, 160 ... R/R ... 21 ... 2013 FA (MX)
YearTeam (LG)ABBA/OBP/Slgbb%ct% EyeHR/SB
2017San Antonio (Tex)442.296/.398/.38013851.053/7
2018El Paso (PCL)450.296/.398/.44713760.618/2
2018San Diego (NL)48.208/.264/.3546790.302/1
2019El Paso (PCL)295.315/.398/.60011790.5819/7
2019San Diego (NL)215.223/.329/.32610740.454/0
Comments: Shorter, athletic 2B who made MLB debut in August. Employs high-contact approach with natural bat-to-ball skills; creates low line-drive trajectories and hard GBs to all fields for BA impact. Barrel control and disciplined approach should lend themselves to average power at maturity. Very good defender at second and has enough arm for SS if needed.

Development Path: Urias projects to be in the Padres' Opening Day starting lineup next spring. He is as close to a finished product as he needs to be to contribute in fantasy play.

Fantasy Impact: Urias' best chance for fantasy impact will be in BA/OBP categories. As he becomes stronger, there could be potential for 15 HR in this profile, as well as providing runs as a top-of-the-order-type bat.

Upside Grade: 8B

6. Adrian Morejon (LHP) ... 6-0, 165 ... 20 ... 2016 2016 FA (CU)
2017Tri-City (Nwst)35.13.571.1300.88.90.259
2018Azl Padres (Ariz)2.26.751.8800.013.50.385
2018Lake Elsinore (Calif)62.23.301.2403.410.13.0.223
2019Amarillo (Tex)
2019San Diego (NL)
Comments: Young Cuban LH who spent time on DL with minor injuries. Wields FB that can touch 96 mph and sit 90-93 with some arm-side sink; lacks command of it at present. CB has good 1/7 depth and CU flashes above-avg fade; both will need to be thrown more when behind in count. Better athlete than thicker build lets on. Chance for three above-average pitches.

Development Path: Having spent time on the DL while also being one of the youngest pitchers in the CAL last year, Morejon should start 2019 back in High-A before making the ever-important jump to AA later in the year.

Fantasy Impact: Morejon's combination of stuff and pitchability gives him a chance to yield above-average Dom numbers at his peak. There's a solid mid-rotation arm in this profile if things break right.

Upside Grade: 9E

7. Michel Baez (RHP) ... 6-8, 220 ... 23 ... 2016 2016 FA (CU)
2017Azl Padres (Ariz)5.03.600.8003.612.63.5.118
2018Lake Elsinore (Calif)86.22.911.2203.
2018San Antonio (Tex)18.17.361.8505.910.31.7.286
2019Amarillo (Tex)
2019San Diego (NL)
Comments: Tall, big-armed RH who broke through in just his second pro season. Gets downhill plane on mid-90s FB that will touch 99 mph on occasion with little effort. SL flashes plus two-plane bend for whiffs and CU also projects to be above-average. May never have average command, but repeats delivery well for size and is a decent athlete. Big upside.

Development Path: Baez struggled in his debut to AA late last season, so that's likely where he lands to start 2019. He could be a September call-up, but expect him to challenge for meaningful PT from the rotation in 2020.

Fantasy Impact: Baez's big-time upside profile entails quality Dom potential given his elite velocity and legitimate swing-and-miss slider. There's some risk with the potential for below-avg Cmd production and HR/9 issues, but it's a gamble worth taking in dynasty formats.

Upside Grade: 9D

8. Ryan Weathers (LHP) ... 6-1, 200 ... 19 ... 2018 (1) HS (TN)
2018AZL Padres 2 (Ariz)9.13.861.1802.
2018Fort Wayne (Midw)
2019Fort Wayne (Midw)96.03.841.2401.
Comments: Strong, thicker LHP taken seventh overall in the 2018 amateur draft. Chance for three above-average pitches with good command of each. Quick arm speed creates low-90s FB that will touch 95 mph. Off-speed stuff is advanced for age; CB will show solid depth and has some feel for fading CU. Throws strikes and projects to have above-average command.

Development Path: Weathers, still a teenager, made his debut in full-season ball toward the end of 2018 and that's where he projects to start 2019. He remains a long-term project and should be stashed in dynasty formats in anticipation for a call-up around 2021.

Fantasy Impact: Weathers has a solid foundation with which to work toward his #3 SP future role. He has three pitches that project to be above average, a strong, durable build and good athleticism, and advanced command for his age. There should be above-average Dom returns in this profile.

Upside Grade: 8C

9. Luis Patino (RHP) ... 6-0, 150 ... 19 ... 2016 2016 FA (CB)
2017Azl Padres (Ariz)40.02.481.2003.
2018Fort Wayne (Midw)
2019Lake Elsinore (Calif)87.02.691.0903.511.73.3.189
2019Amarillo (Tex)
Comments: Young, live-armed RH who exploded onto the scene in MWL. Can reach back for 98 mph and comfortably sit mid-90s with lively plus FB and maintains velo deep into starts. CB flashes plus 11/5 bend and misses barrels. SL has two-plane movement and CU shows drop required for outs vs. LHH. Good athlete with room to fill out some in upper half.

Development Path: Patino appears ready for the jump to High-A, so expect him to start 2019 in the CAL. He'll need to add a bit more muscle to his frame before making the jump to AA, so expect him to still be a few years away from contributing.

Fantasy Impact: Not many 19-year-old pitching prospects lack a clear weakness, but Patino is one of them. He has quality velocity and good feel for three solid secondary offerings that should evolve into above-average offerings. Combine that with strike-throwing ability, and there's some upside here.

Upside Grade: 9D

10. Logan Allen (LHP) ... 6-3, 200 ... 21 ... 2015 (8) HS (FL)
2018San Antonio (Tex)121.02.751.0502.
2019Columbus (IL)22.17.661.9304.
2019El Paso (PCL)
2019Cleveland (AL)
2019San Diego (NL)25.16.751.8204.
Comments: Strong, durable LHP who posted 9.1 Dom in nearly 150 IP in upper minors in 2018. Features a low-90s fastball that plays up with late life from 3/4 arm slot. Repeats arm speed & delivery well for deception on CU that flashes plus at next level; SL works as passable third pitch. Not a prolific strike thrower, but has pitchability and mixes things up.

Development Path: Allen will likely challenge for a rotation spot heading out of spring camp. If he doesn't grab one, he should return to the PCL and aim for a mid-season promotion.

Fantasy Impact: Allen is more of a high-floor arm than a high-ceiling one, as he lacks a true "putaway" pitch. He does, however, have a balanced arsenal and should be a #4 SP on a first-division club with moderate Dom upside long-term.

Upside Grade: 8B

11. Cal Quantrill (RHP) ... 6-3, 195 ... 24 ... 2016 (1) Stanford University
2017Azl Padres (Ariz)
2018San Antonio (Tex)
2018El Paso (PCL)31.03.481.4201.
2019El Paso (PCL)35.24.541.4003.
2019San Diego (NL)
Comments: Athletic RH whose K-rate has dropped each year as a pro. Still sits 92-95 mph with plus FB but now plays down due to lack of movement up in zone. Headline pitch is plus CU that is sold well with quality arm speed late tumbling action out of hand. Blends in average CB and occasional SL. Strikes have increased but so too have HR.

Development Path: Quantrill projects to start 2019 in the PCL, looking to shore up his command en route to a promotion to the big league rotation by mid-season.

Fantasy Impact: Despite a decreasing strikeout rate, Quantrill projects to be a solid #4 SP with moderate Dom upside. His FB is still plus and his changeup is a legitimate out-pitch. If the CB comes around, there could be some sneaky impact potential here.

Upside Grade: 8C

12. Esteury Ruiz (2B,3B) ... 6-0, 150 ... R/R ... 20 ... 2015 FA (DR)
YearTeam (LG)ABBA/OBP/Slgbb%ct% EyeHR/SB
2017Azl Padres (Ariz)120.350/.395/.6027720.261/17
2017Azl Royals (Ariz)86.419/.440/.7794770.203/9
2018Fort Wayne (Midw)439.253/.324/.4038680.2712/49
2019Lake Elsinore (Calif)339.239/.300/.3577700.266/34
Comments: Lean, ultra-athletic IF who flaunted power/speed potential in MWL. Combines plus bat speed with natural loft for plus raw power. Employs deep hand load and swing has some effort to it, leading to subpar ct% and poor plate skills. Aggressive baserunner who busts down the line and is fluid runner underway; will be SB source as everyday player.

Development Path: Ruiz will likely start 2019 back in Low-A or in High-A. In either scenario, he'll need to develop a more refined approach and work on his bat to ball skills before he challenges for the upper minors.

Fantasy Impact: Ruiz remains very raw as a prospect, but the skills for a 20 HR-30 SB return early in his career is a legitimate possibility. He'll probably come with some BA/OBP risk, but the upside here is sky-high and worth monitoring now.

Upside Grade: 9E

13. Anderson Espinoza (RHP) ... 6-0, 160 ... 21 ... 2014 FA (VZ)
2015GCL Red Sox (GCL)40.00.680.8252.
2016Fort Wayne (Midw)32.14.731.4202.
2016Greenville (SAL)76.04.381.3703.
2017Did not play - injury (--)
2018Did not play - injury (--)
Comments: Former heralded SP missed second straight year with injuries. When on, he'll touch 99 and sit mid-90s from a smaller, athletic frame with relative ease. Locates hammer 12/6 CB down in zone for GBs; fading CU is weapon vs. LHH. Potential for three plus offerings and #2 SP upside if things come together post Tommy John surgery, but that's a big 'if'.

Development Path: The Padres will slowly and deliberately reintroduce Espinoza to pro ball after missing two straight years. He'll turn 21 in March, which means he's still very young, but the road to the majors could be postponed until 2020 or so.

Fantasy Impact: Espinoza is one of only a handful of pitching prospects with three legitimate plus-or-better offerings, which means the upside here is sky high. A 50th percentile outcome here would likely be that he regains health and posts a quality (8.0-9.0 Dom) consistently over 150-175 IP in his early years.

Upside Grade: 9E

14. Jeisson Rosario (OF) ... 6-1, 175 ... L/L ... 19 ... 2016 FA (DR)
YearTeam (LG)ABBA/OBP/Slgbb%ct% EyeHR/SB
2017Azl Padres (Ariz)187.299/.404/.36915810.921/8
2018Fort Wayne (Midw)436.271/.368/.35313750.613/18
2019Lake Elsinore (Calif)430.242/.372/.31417730.763/11
Comments: Athletic, pure-hitting OF who is well rounded in all facets of the game. Has selective approach and hunts pitches he can drive. Smooth, level LH stroke lends itself to above-avg ct% in all four quadrants of zone. Hands are quiet and doesn't get ideal separation for raw power; potentially more as he muscles up. Plus defender in CF with a strong arm.

Development Path: After posting above-average marks in OPS and BB/K as a 19-year-old in the MWL, Rosario should move to the CAL to start 2019. He will be focusing on adding lean muscle to his frame before he challenges for the upper minors.

Fantasy Impact: Rosario blends athleticism with quality bat-to-ball skills and should be an above-average contributor in BA/OBP/SB categories. He's not a big-time power threat now, but could yield 12-15 HR at his peak.

Upside Grade: 8C

15. Xavier Edwards (SS) ... 5-10, 155 ... R/R ... 19 ... 2018 (1) HS (FL)
YearTeam (LG)ABBA/OBP/Slgbb%ct% EyeHR/SB
2018Azl Padres (Ariz)73.384/.471/.46615861.300/12
2018Tri-City (Nwst)86.314/.438/.36017831.200/10
2019Fort Wayne (Midw)307.336/.392/.4149890.861/20
2019Lake Elsinore (Calif)196.301/.349/.3677900.740/14
Comments: Shorter, lean athlete whose glove stands above his bat at present. Mans a plus SS and shows elite footwork and range and has plenty of arm to stick. Offense is predicated on high-volume contact as switch hitter. Will not be HR threat; mostly gaps at next level. Works counts well and spits on pitches in dirt. Plus-plus speed; will be SB threat.

Development Path: Having moved from rookie ball to short-season A ball in his pro debut, Edwards likely starts 2019 in extended spring training before hoping to end his campaign in the MWL.

Fantasy Impact: Edwards' plus-plus speed and high contact/on base ability makes him a name to watch in dynasty formats. He will not be a big-time contributor in HR/RBI, but he has enough tools to be a solid everyday regular at SS down the road.

Upside Grade: 8D

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