Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.

Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.

We'll take a look at several indicators to explain why they may be easy to overvalue.

Please reference our Pitching Toolbox for explanations on these indicators. We have included excerpts below where applicable.


  • Strand Rate

Pitchers with very high strand rates almost always have exemplary ERAs. Most will see their ERAs rise the following year.

S%  77% - 2011

Name                 League  S%
===================  ======  ===
Bass, Anthony            NL  90%
Johnson, Josh...


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