STARTERS: Gambles

Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.

Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.

We'll take a look at several indicators to explain why they may be easy to overvalue.

Please reference our Pitching Toolbox for explanations on these indicators. We have included excerpts below where applicable.

***

  • Strand Rate

Pitchers with very high strand rates almost always have exemplary ERAs. Most will see their ERAs rise the following year.

S%  77% - 2011

Name                 League  S%
===================  ======  ===
Bass, Anthony            NL  90%
Johnson, Josh...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty's inconsistency can be traced to some deep struggles after he goes through a lineup once during a game.
Jun 28 2025 3:05am
Bryce Elder's marginal overall skills are hiding some impactful components when he pitches with the bases empty.
Jun 21 2025 3:10am
Max Meyer has looked like two different pitchers during his home and road starts.
Jun 14 2025 3:05am
Sandy Alcantara's rough post-injury stats have been driven by some deep struggles against lefty bats.
Jun 7 2025 3:05am
Ben Brown's ugly surface stats in May hid some excellent underlying skills.
May 31 2025 3:09am

Tools