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Home-road splits, 2023 updated
Aug 19 2023
Let's take an updated look at the starting pitchers with the widest home/road splits using differences in aggregate skill level (BPV):
Let's take a closer look at some noteworthy home/road BPV splits that you can use to maximize the value from your starting rotation down the stretch, as well as use to identify emerging arms heading into 2024.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW) owns a mediocre 4.98 ERA in 59 IP on the road in 2023, a mark that has been inflated by a 37% H% and 64% S%. In spite of those surface struggles, his base skills away from home have been excellent: 30% K%, 9% BB%, 21% K-BB%, 45% GB%, 140 BPV. Even though he has a decent 3.79 ERA at home, Cease's skills (58 BPV) suggest there's a correction coming there.
Reid Detmers (LHP, LAA) has been one of the game's better starters when he pitches at home: 32% K%, 9% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 33% GB%, 141 BPV. He's another pitcher who has been victimized by some hit rate misfortune (36% H% at home). On the road, his hit rate normalizes (29% H%) but his skills tank (51 BPV). He's worth using during his home starts down the stretch.
Grayson Rodriguez (RHP, BAL) is flashing his upside away from Camden Yards. His road skills have been some of the best in the game among starters with 30+ IP in that scenario: 30% K%, 7% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 49% GB%, 152 BPV. His surface stats implode during his home starts (6.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) due in large part to shaky skills (44 BPV).
Chris Sale (LHP, BOS) has looked like his former ace-like self when he pitches in Fenway Park. He has a 3.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP there, stats that have been fueled by this elite collection of skills: 34% K%, 5% BB%, 30% K-BB%, 40% GB%, 197 BPV. His surface struggles have come on the road (5.34 ERA in 32 IP), where his skills go from great to good (127 BPV).
Patrick Sandoval (LHP, LAA) has been a volatile starter so far in 2023, due in large part to inconsistent control. He has an ugly 15% BB% in 58 IP on the road, a weakness that is fueling his ugly 15 BPV away from home. If you're rostering him, the place to use him is at home, where he throws the ball over the plate (6% BB% in 54 IP).
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Nick Martinez (RHP, SD) owns some of the widest home/road splits in the game. He's a must-start at home (2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 50 IP) behind an upper-tier 136 BPV. His problems are relegated to his road appearances (5.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 36 IP), where he loses 14 points of K-BB% and doesn't own roster-worthy skills (40 BPV).
Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) has looked like a rotation anchor at Miller Park, where he has put up a 3.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 166 BPV in 71 IP. His results erode away from home (4.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 56 IP), where inconsistent command has deteriorated his skills (74 BPV).
Matt Strahm (LHP, PHI) has been filthy during his home starts. He has a 32% K-BB% in 34 IP at home, an elite level of command that has given him a 200 BPV at home. His skills become more solid than speculator on the road (112 BPV), as do his surface stats (3.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 38 IP).
Jameson Taillon (RHP, CHC) could provide some positive regression if you use him during his home starts down the stretch. His horrible 6.17 ERA and 1.61 WHIP at Wrigley Field has been the direct result of a 39% H%. His good 111 BPV at home suggests his numbers should be much better there. Just be careful using him at all on the road (47 BPV in 50 IP).
Julio Urías (LHP, LA) has been one of the game's best starters during his home starts. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 55 IP at home, marks that have been driven by an elite foundation of skills: 29% K%, 3% BB%, 27% K-BB%, 46% GB%, 178 BPV. He really struggles on the road (6.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP in 43 IP), where his command wanes (11% K-BB%). He's a road tweak away from becoming a legit rotation anchor.
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