Home-road splits, 2023 updated

Let's take an updated look at the starting pitchers with the widest home/road splits using differences in aggregate skill level (BPV):

NameLgBPV HomeBPV RoadΔ
Julio UríasNL178 61 117 
Nick MartinezNL136 40 96 
Shintaro FujinamiAL78 (15)93 
Freddy PeraltaNL166 74 92 
Reid DetmersAL141 51 90 
Matt StrahmNL200 112 88 
Patrick SandovalAL102 15 87 
Drew SmylyNL128 41 87 
Spencer StriderNL228 141 87 
Clayton KershawNL182 99 83 
Tyler GlasnowAL210 130 80 
Kyle FreelandNL86 79 
Justin VerlanderAL109 34 76 
Ken WaldichukAL84 10 74 
Zac GallenNL175 102 73 
Michael KopechAL57 (16)73 
Chris SaleAL197 127 71 
James PaxtonAL167 97 70 
Shane McClanahanAL144 78 66 
Luis CastilloAL167 103 64 
Jameson TaillonNL111 47 64 
Charlie MortonNL109 47 62 
Luke WeaverNL104 46 58 
Domingo GermánAL136 79 57 
Brandon WilliamsonNL84 29 55 
Tyler WellsAL122 69 53 
Joe RyanAL180 131 49 
Bryce ElderNL90 43 48 
Jakob JunisNL173 126 47 
Edward CabreraNL90 43 47 
Lance LynnNL148 104 44 
Noah SyndergaardAL90 47 43 
Blake SnellNL112 70 42 
George KirbyAL166 124 41 
Marcus StromanNL100 59 40 
Zach EflinAL173 134 39 
Framber ValdezAL151 112 39 
Tony GonsolinNL75 36 39 
José BerríosAL125 87 39 
Roansy ContrerasNL53 15 38 
Patrick CorbinNL71 34 37 
Martín PérezAL52 15 37 
Miles MikolasNL101 64 37 
Chris BassittAL111 74 37 
Yu DarvishNL124 89 35 
Alex WoodNL60 27 33 
Luis SeverinoAL75 42 33 
Lucas GiolitoAL118 86 32 
Mike ClevingerAL71 39 32 
Sonny GrayAL125 95 31 
Taj BradleyAL160 130 30 
Cristian JavierAL88 57 30 
Tanner HouckAL84 114 (30)
Adrian HouserNL65 97 (32)
Zack GreinkeAL79 113 (34)
David PetersonNL72 107 (35)
Kyle BradishAL89 125 (36)
Corbin BurnesNL76 113 (37)
Ross StriplingNL94 132 (38)
Connor SeaboldNL35 73 (38)
Logan AllenAL66 105 (39)
Anthony DeSclafaniNL82 122 (39)
Dean KremerAL65 109 (44)
Hunter BrownAL105 153 (48)
Bryce MillerAL92 144 (52)
Kutter CrawfordAL84 138 (54)
Nick PivettaAL92 148 (56)
Josiah GrayNL68 (62)
Hayden WesneskiNL49 115 (66)
Bailey OberAL97 165 (67)
Ryne NelsonNL83 (77)
Dylan CeaseAL58 140 (82)
Grayson RodriguezAL44 152 (108)
Alek ManoahAL(66)52 (118)
Matthew BoydAL23 166 (143)

Let's take a closer look at some noteworthy home/road BPV splits that you can use to maximize the value from your starting rotation down the stretch, as well as use to identify emerging arms heading into 2024.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW) owns a mediocre 4.98 ERA in 59 IP on the road in 2023, a mark that has been inflated by a 37% H% and 64% S%. In spite of those surface struggles, his base skills away from home have been excellent: 30% K%, 9% BB%, 21% K-BB%, 45% GB%, 140 BPV. Even though he has a decent 3.79 ERA at home, Cease's skills (58 BPV) suggest there's a correction coming there.

Reid Detmers (LHP, LAA) has been one of the game's better starters when he pitches at home: 32% K%, 9% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 33% GB%, 141 BPV. He's another pitcher who has been victimized by some hit rate misfortune (36% H% at home). On the road, his hit rate normalizes (29% H%) but his skills tank (51 BPV). He's worth using during his home starts down the stretch.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP, BAL) is flashing his upside away from Camden Yards. His road skills have been some of the best in the game among starters with 30+ IP in that scenario: 30% K%, 7% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 49% GB%, 152 BPV. His surface stats implode during his home starts (6.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) due in large part to shaky skills (44 BPV).

Chris Sale (LHP, BOS) has looked like his former ace-like self when he pitches in Fenway Park. He has a 3.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP there, stats that have been fueled by this elite collection of skills: 34% K%, 5% BB%, 30% K-BB%, 40% GB%, 197 BPV. His surface struggles have come on the road (5.34 ERA in 32 IP), where his skills go from great to good (127 BPV).

Patrick Sandoval (LHP, LAA) has been a volatile starter so far in 2023, due in large part to inconsistent control. He has an ugly 15% BB% in 58 IP on the road, a weakness that is fueling his ugly 15 BPV away from home. If you're rostering him, the place to use him is at home, where he throws the ball over the plate (6% BB% in 54 IP).
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Nick Martinez (RHP, SD) owns some of the widest home/road splits in the game. He's a must-start at home (2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 50 IP) behind an upper-tier 136 BPV. His problems are relegated to his road appearances (5.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 36 IP), where he loses 14 points of K-BB% and doesn't own roster-worthy skills (40 BPV).

Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) has looked like a rotation anchor at Miller Park, where he has put up a 3.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 166 BPV in 71 IP. His results erode away from home (4.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 56 IP), where inconsistent command has deteriorated his skills (74 BPV).

Matt Strahm (LHP, PHI) has been filthy during his home starts. He has a 32% K-BB% in 34 IP at home, an elite level of command that has given him a 200 BPV at home. His skills become more solid than speculator on the road (112 BPV), as do his surface stats (3.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 38 IP).

Jameson Taillon (RHP, CHC) could provide some positive regression if you use him during his home starts down the stretch. His horrible 6.17 ERA and 1.61 WHIP at Wrigley Field has been the direct result of a 39% H%. His good 111 BPV at home suggests his numbers should be much better there. Just be careful using him at all on the road (47 BPV in 50 IP).

Julio Urías (LHP, LA) has been one of the game's best starters during his home starts. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 55 IP at home, marks that have been driven by an elite foundation of skills: 29% K%, 3% BB%, 27% K-BB%, 46% GB%, 178 BPV. He really struggles on the road (6.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP in 43 IP), where his command wanes (11% K-BB%). He's a road tweak away from becoming a legit rotation anchor.

More From Starting Pitchers

The horrible stats and shaky skills foundation of A.J. Puk are making him someone to avoid as long as he's a starting pitcher.
Apr 20 2024 3:04am
The 5.00+ ERA of Brandon Pfaadt is hiding some of the best underlying skills in the game.
Apr 13 2024 3:05am
Brady Singer's increased slider usage in his first start helped him generate swinging strikes at an elite rate, giving hope that he could take a step forward in 2024.
Apr 6 2024 3:05am
AJ Smith-Shawver's arsenal improvements this spring make him an early rotation outsider worth stashing.
Mar 30 2024 3:05am
The big spring of Tanner Houck is making him an intriguing profit target at his near-500 ADP.
Mar 22 2024 3:10am

Tools