(*) MARKET PULSE: Third basemen, 2023

Market Pulse

Matthew Cederholm

Feb 13 2023 1:06am

(*) MARKET PULSE: Third basemen, 2023

Matthew Cederholm

Feb 13 2023

NOTE: Our preseason Market Pulse column is an exercise in identifying the gaps between the valuation of the "popular" market (as reflected in Average Draft Position, or "ADP"*) and that of BaseballHQ.com. If a player is not listed here, it's likely that he qualifies at a scarcer position, or he's not in the ADP Top 500-600 (it's a bit fluid). This is an exercise in relative valuation, not absolute.

Each hitter is being considered at his scarcest qualified position (in order: C/DH, SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, OF), as it is the scarcest eligible position that typically drives fantasy value. The rankings are a risk- and position-adjusted estimate using current BaseballHQ.com projections. It is a purely quantitative ranking, with no specific consideration of "upside" (aside from reliability scores). The BaseballHQ dollar values are position adjusted but do not incorporate risk. Average auction values are approximate. These are not the "official" BaseballHQ.com straight draft rankings, but they should be close.

The article assumes a standard 15-team, mixed, 5x5 league, though the recommendations here will generally apply in most formats. A positive number in the "Diff" column indicates a player that BaseballHQ.com ranks higher than the "market," and a negative number indicates we have the player ranked lower, based on Average Draft Position (ADP). The list is split into tiers, based on ADP. ADP is based on National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Draft Champions leagues over the past four weeks. We may extend the number of weeks to get a minimum number of drafts.

Any references to number of rounds assumes a 15-team mixed league.

* In this column, ADP is measured from NFBC Draft Champions drafts over the past five weeks.

NFBC ADP Report | Unofficial Rankings

Previous columns: C/DH | SS | 2B

There are some very good players at the top of the third-base table, and you can pass them on by for other positions if it suits you. There is a bevy of perfectly cromulent choices throughout the draft, some of whom even have some potential upside, and many of whom are going cheaply. This is one position we can fill later in the draft. As good as guys like José Ramírez, Rafael Devers, and Austin Riley are, you don't need an elite 3B.

                                     HQ                      --  HQ Projections --
Player               TM POS REL ADP Rank Diff HQ$ AAV Diff |  AB AVG HR RBI  R  SB
==================  === === === === ==== ==== === === ==== | === === == === === == 
Ramírez, José       CLE  50 BAB   3    1    2  36  48  -12 | 575 282 32 115  98 20
Machado, Manny       SD   5 AAC  17    4   13  32  31    1 | 582 289 32 106  97 10
Devers, Rafael      BOS   5 AAA  19   20   -1  24  30   -6 | 561 284 29  97  85  4
Riley, Austin       ATL   5 AAC  22   23   -1  24  28   -4 | 594 278 34  95  87  1
Arenado, Nolan      STL   5 AAB  33   14   19  26  24    2 | 591 280 33 106  81  4

Bregman, Alex       HOU   5 DAA  80   87   -7  18  16    2 | 532 272 22  89  89  2
Henderson, Gunnar   BAL   5 ACF  93   82   11  15  14    1 | 511 251 24  67  75 15

Chapman, Matt       TOR   5 BAA 155  161   -6  12   9    3 | 544 234 30  77  83  2
Miranda, José       MIN 350 AAC 156   88   68  14   9    5 | 576 279 20  79  67  2
Suárez, Eugenio     SEA   5 AAB 158  101   57  14   9    5 | 512 235 32  87  75  1
Hayes, Ke'Bryan     PIT   5 CAF 173  257  -84   5   8   -3 | 528 252  9  47  63 14
Bohm, Alec          PHI   5 AAD 183  120   63  12   7    5 | 540 278 14  73  72  4
McMahon, Ryan       COL   5 AAB 202  154   48   9   6    3 | 491 246 21  69  66  6
Jung, Josh          TEX   5 AFF 214  209    5   8   6    2 | 518 240 20  77  57  6

Walker, Jordan      STL   5 ACF 237  915 -678  -9   5  -14 | 191 244  6  17  24  5
Turner, Justin      BOS  50 CAA 243   93  150  15   5   10 | 523 281 14  88  77  4
Rendon, Anthony     LAA   5 FDC 246  281  -35   5   5    0 | 385 265 16  64  51  2
Díaz, Yandy         TAM   5 CAB 261  212   49   7   4    3 | 441 282 12  58  64  2
Moncada, Yoán       CHW   5 CAC 286  312  -26   3   3    0 | 492 241 15  61  60  3
Escobar, Eduardo    NYM   5 AAC 345  198  147   5   1    4 | 471 252 21  70  59  1
Urshela, Giovanny   LAA   5 CAC 374  357   17   1   0    1 | 350 280 11  50  46  1
Candelario, Jeimer  WAS   5 BAC 383  369   14   0   0    0 | 405 242 16  52  53  0
Steer, Spencer      CIN   5 ABA 394  549 -155  -4   0   -4 | 441 216 12  49  56  3
Donaldson, Josh     NYY  50 DAB 400  430  -30  -2   0   -2 | 358 233 14  51  52  1
Davis, J.D.          SF   5 CBB 418  329   89   2  -1    3 | 453 249 16  53  60  1
Baty, Brett         NYM   5 BCA 421  533 -112  -4  -1   -3 | 308 253 14  36  35  2
Wisdom, Patrick     CHC   5 AAD 435  367   68   0  -1    1 | 371 211 19  54  52  6
Anderson, Brian     MIL 5o9 DCB 438  565 -127  -6  -1   -5 | 368 230 11  38  42  3
Peterson, Jace      OAK   5 CCA 453  254  199   5  -1    6 | 485 233  9  54  66 17
Dozier, Hunter       KC3o95 BAA 482  794 -312  -4  -2   -2 | 313 227  9  29  37  3
Longoria, Evan      ARI   5 FCB 493  397   96  -1  -2    1 | 311 251 15  49  41  1
Villar, David        SF   5 ABA 501  641 -140  -6  -2   -4 | 277 221 15  39  38  1
Montero, Elehuris   COL   5 ABA 524  342  182   1  -3    4 | 464 247 16  55  49  2

Is BaseballHQ taking a small leap of faith with José Miranda (3B, MIN)? His 2023 projection looks pretty spot-on when compared to his 2022 MLB production, especially if we isolate the second half, where he showed a good balance of contact (80% ct%) and average power (101 xPX), leading to a quite-nice 117 xPX. His second-half .257 xBA puts his BA in question, but he has a history of solid BA (albeit short), and his 23% LD% in the second half at least suggests that he can square the ball. His Brl% is below-average, so we shouldn't necessarily expect a HR breakout, but his BaseballHQ projection is quite achievable. We're satisfied that his value is higher than his ADP suggests.

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The only reason we can come up with for the market's disagreement on Eugenio Suárez (3B, SEA) is his .198 BA in 2021. That could be scaring GMs away, or at least framing him in their minds as a BA anchor. However, that BA was a combination of both bad luck and more bad luck. His xBA (.228) was 30 points higher, and he also had an unusual dip in LD%. The luck reversed in 2022, with BA and xBA (.236/.232) closely synced, and his LD% back up to a more reasonable 20%. It's still a far cry from his early-career BAs, and at a place where a little bad luck could make him an anchor, but the power numbers help make up for that. While MLB saw a 12% reduction in home runs, Eugenio held serve, repeating his 31 HR from 2021. There's some BA risk, sure, but a 57-spot difference is enticing. We're buying.

If you're paying full price for Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT), you need a full repeat of his 20 SB from 2021. Aside from a literal smattering of HR and RBI, that's his only source of value, unless he has a huge breakout. His 10 xSB say that a repeat is unlikely, though xSB doesn't like large swings in SBA% (from 10% in 2021 to 18% in 2022). His 119 Spd and 80% SB% in 2021 back up his performance, so it's possible the market is right. However, there are several players in the 18-22 SB range who have similar power and BA (e.g., Nico Hoerner, Leody Taveras), and we'd trust most of them more than Hayes in the speed department. And most are nowhere near as costly.

Is he what he is? If you put weight on second-half numbers for young players, you'll want to move Alec Bohm (3B, PHI) up your draft board. He saw significant jumps in most skills in the second half, particularly contact (78% to 84%) and HctX (97 to 127). He still lacks power, with his PX, xPX, and Brl% all below average, but they're moving in the right direction. He could be poised for a (mini) breakout in 2023, and the market certainly isn't pricing in that upside. He's worth the small gamble.

Ryan McMahon (3B, COL) maybe is at the point of "he is what he is." And what is he? Well, aside from speed, he's pretty much average at, well, everything. Average BA (remember, the MLB BA in 2022 was .243), average OBA, average power (114 PX). Heck, he's even average defensively. But here's the thing: if we dig deeper, we find that his raw power ticks well above average. In 2022, he ranked in the 70th percentile in Brl% and in the 85th percentile in EV on FB/LD among qualified hitters. And his second half (13 HR, 147 xPX, 12% Brl%) could portend a small bump in production. It's hard to see him falling short of his 2021-2022 production, and he also has the potential for 2B eligibility at some point. He's a known quantity, with the possibility of some upside, and the market isn't pricing either in. Draft with confidence.

Justin Turner (3B, BOS) certainly looks like he was affected by the change in the baseball in 2022. His PX in 2021 and 2022 are almost identical, as are his barrel rates in both seasons. Yet his HR/F dropped from 14% to 8%. At 38, we can't automatically assume that his skills will hold up, but his remarkably consistent plate discipline will help, and the move from LA to Boston is a plus. We don't expect a power resurgence, especially at his age, but a strong BA with some decent counting stats based on volume looks like a good bet. The market typically doesn't like BA/volume plays like this, but given the ADP/projection gap, we'd be almost silly to not grab him just outside the top 200.

Everything we said about Ryan McMahon above holds true for Eduardo Escobar (3B, NYM), except Escobar is older and doesn't have any hidden power lingering that gives him potential upside. But he helps fill in the stats columns without killing your BA, and he's essentially free in standard 15-team mixed leagues.

If you're grabbing Jace Peterson (3B, OAK) as your primary 3B, something has probably gone awry. In BA leagues, he contributes speed and little else, though he won't kill you in BA and the other counting stats (his OBA is a bit above average, so he's a touch more valuable there—just a touch). But if you're looking for speed at the end of the draft, you could do worse. He's an age and health risk, but he can provide positive value even if you're forced to plug him into your lineup for the entire season.

Fantasy GMs tend to overpay for prospects, so it's odd that Elehuris Montero (3B, COL) should be going so cheaply. His 66% ct% in the majors in 2022 wasn't great, but it was his first taste of the big leagues. His MLE ct% was much better (73% in 2021-2022), and he did flash some power, with a 128 xPX and 9% Brl%. His playing time projection is mostly speculation at this point, but he might have a better chance of sticking than fellow infielder Ezequiel Tovar, who has all of 33 MLB AB to his name. With the Rockies and prospects, you never know, but with his 524 ADP, you don't have to pay much to ride the Elehuris train. He's a good place to speculate.

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