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(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Torres, Giolito, Carrasco, Soler, Do. Santana
Mar 2 2020
Is Torres being overvalued?... 2020 NFBC drafters are selecting Gleyber Torres (SS/2B, NYY) towards the end of the second round of 15-team drafts (30 ADP), which indicates they are expecting him to improve on the $23 of R$ he produced in 2019. Do his 2019 skills support this level of optimism?
Year AB HR/xHR BA/xBA HctX bb% ct% LA~ PX/xPX HR/F HR/HF^ FBv* FBD+ ==== === ====== ======= ==== === === ==== ======= ==== ====== ==== === 2018 431 24/24 271/247 101 9 72 18.8 126/115 18% 50% 92.4 322 2019 546 38/31 278/270 105 8 76 17.4 130/116 21% 53% 93.1 330 ~ average launch angle (degrees) ^ home run per hard hit fly ball rate * fly ball average exit velocity + average fly ball distance
Torres is a batting average and home run asset:
- He improved his strikeout rate, batting average, and batting average skills by making more contact on pitches both in and out of the strike zone.
- The fly balls he hit in 2019 traveled further and at a higher velocity, on average, than they did in 2018. This at least partially validates his improved home run total.
- But our expected home run metric indicates that Torres's home run rate on hard-hit fly balls was quite fortunate (i.e. it was 40% better than league average). Unless his underlying skills improve, we should expect a HR total closer to 30 than 40 in 2020.
- Though he stole over 20 bags in the minors a couple of times, he should not be counted on for more than a smattering of stolen bases in 2020. This because both his statistically-scouted speed (89 Spd) and Statcast Sprint Speed (26.5 ft/s) are well below the league average.
The 23-year old Torres is a precocious former top prospect who certainly has the talent to exceed expectations. However, with little reason to expect a batting average or stolen bases spike in 2020, and with home run regression looming, it seems that Torres is likely being overvalued a bit by NFBC drafters.
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Giolito's second half a cause for concern?... Lucas Giolito's (RHP, CHW) long-awaited breakout finally seemed to be in offing after he posted a 2.72 ERA and 10.8 Dom in the first half of 2019. But he started giving up more home runs in the second half, posted a 4.24 ERA, and finished the season on the bench with a back injury. 2020 NFBC drafters are bullish—taking him on average at pick #48, and as the 14th SP off the board—but should we be so comfortable making such a significant investment in him?
Year IP ERA/xERA H%/S% Ctl Dom Cmd Ball% SwK Vel GB% HR/F BPX CH~ ==== === ========= ===== === ==== === ===== === ==== === ==== === === 2016* 130 4.31/4.93 34/74 4.1 7.5 1.8 37% 6% 93.4 41% 29% 65 11% 2017* 174 4.49/4.63 30/72 3.9 7.9 2.0 36% 11% 92.1 45% 18% 62 16% 2018 173 6.13/5.33 28/60 4.7 6.5 1.4 40% 9% 92.4 44% 13% 15 15% 2019 177 3.41/3.60 28/74 2.9 11.6 4.0 34% 16% 94.3 36% 14% 158 26% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19-1H 96 2.72/3.78 26/78 3.1 10.8 3.5 34% 15% 94.2 37% 10% 137 23% 19-2H 81 4.24/3.51 31/69 2.7 12.6 4.7 33% 17% 94.4 34% 18% 182 29% * includes MLE ~ change-up usage rate
Giolito has ace-level talent, and his second-half swoon was mostly a fluke:
- A significant velocity spike, a revved up change-up, and a vastly improved ability to throw strikes were the key ingredients of this breakout.
- His second-half ERA was the result of the triple-whammy of hit rate, strand rate, and HR/F misfortune. However, he was rather fortunate in those areas during the first half, so overall it averaged out.
- His change-up was a lethal weapon (23% SwK; .191 BAA) that he prudently utilized more-and-more throughout the season. The usage increase in the second half was a big reason for the corresponding SwK and Dom spikes.
- Our BPX metric illustrates just how elite his skills were in the second half. If sustained, this skill level would place him among the Top 5 SP in the game.
- One potential Achilles heal is that Giolito's arsenal is lacking in grounder-inducing offerings. He will likely remain vulnerable to the long ball.
The 25-year old erstwhile #3 overall prospect's 2019 breakout season is a fact that came with full skill support. Though his second-half ERA was subpar, the skills and underlying metrics he flashed at the same time all point towards an ace-level ceiling. Slowed by a muscle strain in his rib cage area so far this spring, Giolito will need to be healthy and firing on all cylinders to repeat or build upon his 2019 breakout. Natural regression risk (e.g. fastball velocity) and a susceptibility to gopheritis are reason enough to hedge bets in 2020 drafts and auctions.
Is Carrasco still good?... After being diagnosed with leukemia, Carlos Carrasco (RHP, CLE) missed all of June, July, and August combating the illness. Prior to the diagnosis, he had posted a 4.98 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in 65 innings. He returned in September and pitched an additional 15 innings out of the pen, posting a 6.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. What can we glean from the underlying numbers that will help us set expectations for the 2020 season?
Year IP ERA/xERA S% HR/F xHR/F Ctl Dom Cmd Ball% SwK Vel GB% BPX ==== === ========= === ==== ===== === ==== === ===== === ==== === === 2015 184 3.63/2.75 69% 13% 11% 2.1 10.6 5.0 32% 14% 94.5 51% 194 2016 146 3.32/3.41 78% 16% 14% 2.1 9.2 4.4 34% 13% 93.8 49% 162 2017 200 3.29/3.23 74% 12% 14% 2.1 10.2 4.9 34% 14% 94.3 45% 180 2018 192 3.38/3.05 74% 13% 15% 2.0 10.8 5.4 33% 16% 93.5 47% 191 2019 80 5.29/3.68 68% 22% 21% 1.8 10.8 6.0 33% 15% 93.5 41% 180 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19-2H 15 6.60/3.78 63% 36% 23% 3.0 10.2 3.4 33% 20% 94.0 48% 140
These skills are rock-solid and his 2019 results were a fluke:
- Huge gaps between ERA and xERA, both on the season and after his recovery, illustrate the unfortunate nature of Carrasco's results. Strand rate and HR/F combined to wreak havoc in the second half.
- His fastball velocity, swinging strike rate, and Ball% hardly budged. Nether did Dom, control, or BPX.
- Though pitching out of the pen isn't quite the same, it is promising that Carrasco was still able to maintain his velocity, throw strikes, and miss bats at a similar or better rate than before his illness.
- The only true chink in his armor to appear in 2019 was an inability to keep the ball in the yard. This due both to a HR/F rate much higher than his norm and a ground ball rate much lower than his norm.
Carrasco enters his age-33 season slowed by a strained hip flexer, but he is expected to pitch in his first exhibition game early this week, so he could still be ready to take his turn in the rotation in early April. The vast majority of his skills and underlying abilities are intact. It's fairly safe to assume typical per-inning production from him in 2020, and he could again anchor a rotation if vigor is sustained.
Soler brings the power... Jorge Soler's (OF, KC) long-awaited breakout season finally came to fruition in 2019, as the former Cuban phenom put up an impressive power display, finishing with 48 home runs, 117 RBI, and $24 of R$. Was it a fact or a fluke?
Year PA BA/xBA bb% ct% EV+ GB% PX/xPX HR/xHR HR/F xHR/F FBv~ FBd^ ==== === ======= === === ==== === ======= ====== ==== ===== ==== === 2015 404 262/236 8 67 91.7 42% 107/123 10/11 14% 15% 91.8 325 2016* 310 224/215 13 68 89.8 40% 112/ 91 12/12 17% 17% 92.3 322 2017* 421 205/217 12 65 89.0 38% 122/ 88 19/ 3 7% 11% 93.7 317 2018 257 265/251 11 69 89.5 47% 144/110 9/13 17% 25% 95.7 341 2019 676 265/271 11 70 92.6 39% 168/140 48/51 28% 30% 97.4 349 + average exit velocity * includes MLEs ~ fly ball average exit velocity ^ average fly ball distance in feet
Soler's power is peaking and he's not a BA liability:
- He can discern a ball from a strike and takes a healthy amount of walks. This is an especially important talent in his case because of his inability to make contact on pitches outside of the strike zone (O-Ct%: Soler-47%; MLB Avg-63%).
- Though 48 home runs and a 28% HR/F rate are both much better than anything he had ever done in the past, our xHR and xHR/F metrics indicate that he deserved every bit of it, and then some. He helped himself by also keeping the ball off of the ground more frequently and increasing his rate of hard-hit fly balls (xPX).
- Careful observers may have had an inkling that more power was coming after his 2018 fly ball velocity and distance both spiked. But it was probably hidden from most by his season-ending toe injury in June of that year, and by his power-damping ground ball rate.
- He strikes out more than desired, but the combination of elite exit velocity and extreme power tends to hide that deficiency.
Soler's breakout 2019 season was a fact that came with full skill support. At age 28 he is probably in the midst of his power prime, though regression is much more likely in 2020 than continued growth. Given his lengthy injury history (30+ days on the IL 2015 - 2018), lack of track record, and the market's bullishness (86 ADP) we don't recommend him as a value outfield buy.
Santana limps to the finish... In early June of 2019, when we last checked-in on Domingo Santana (OF, CLE), he was off to a great start, hitting .269 with 10 HR, 42 RBI, and 5 SB in 223 at-bats ($23 of R$). But he faded badly in the second half of a walk year, and it didn't seem like he had many teams clamoring for his services over the winter (signed a one-year deal on 12 February 2020).
Year PA BA/xBA h% HctX GB/LD/FB bb% ct% HR/xHR HR/F xHR/F xPX SB ==== === ======= == ==== ======== === === ====== ==== ===== === == 2016 281 256/252 36 98 44/30/26 11 63 11/11 28% 28% 107 2 2017 607 278/266 37 106 45/27/28 12 66 30/23 31% 24% 120 15 2018* 445 245/209 40 85 49/23/28 10 57 11/ 9 13% 24% 95 2 2019 505 253/238 35 92 43/27/31 10 64 21/27 24% 30% 128 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 19-1H 374 278/257 36 102 39/28/33 9 67 18/25 24% 33% 145 5 19-2H 131 181/180 31 63 56/21/23 11 53 3/ 3 21% 21% 64 3
Santana has the skills to be a useful part of a fantasy roster:
- He landed on the IL in late August with an elbow strain and missed the remainder of the season, save six games in late September. In retrospect it seems likely this was the reason for his second-half swoon.
- Though he strikes out too much to be a reliable batting average asset, his line-drive-oriented swing allows him to post consistently high hit rates, and helps elevate his batting average floor.
- At a powerful 6'5", 220-pounds Santana can put a charge into the ball, and in the first half it appeared as if he would challenge the 40-HR plateau. His xPX and xHR/F during that time were especially impressive.
- His Statcast Sprint Speed was once a healthy 28.3 ft/s back in 2015, but he has lost a few steps and registered a slightly below average 26.7 ft/s in 2019. But he is a savvy baserunner and will probably contribute 5-10 bags in 2020.
After seeming to breakout in 2017 and then falling short of a repeat the next two years, some of Santana's luster may have worn off (335 ADP). But he has proven 30+ HR power, a very BABIP-friendly swing, enough basestealing acumen to avoid liability status, and should be in the Cleveland lineup nearly everyday between LF and DH. At age 27, it's too early to write him off.
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