(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Rengifo, Gibson, Merrifield, Ober, Arroyo

Facts & Flukes

Corbin Young

Feb 24 2023 1:05am

(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Rengifo, Gibson, Merrifield, Ober, Arroyo

Corbin Young

Feb 24 2023

Rengifo finished with a career-best R$ of $15... Due to injuries, the Angels relied on Luis Rengifo (2B/3B, LAA) more often, playing him all over the infield, except first base. He hit 17 HR with six SB and a .264 BA in 511 plate appearances. What do the skills indicate? Can Rengifo replicate last season?

Year  PA    BA/xBA    HR   bb%   ct%   h%  HctX  GB/LD/FB  hr/f  Brl%   PX/xPX  
====  ===  =========  ==   ===  ====  ===  ====  ========  ====  ====  ========   
2019  406  .238/.242   7   10%   74%  30%   83   48/22/30   9%      6    74/50
2020  106  .269/.191   1   13%   71%  21%   83   59/14/27   6%    1.5    26/55   
2021  190  .201/.219   6    5%   78%  22%   93   48/17/35  13%    6.4    54/77
2022  511  .264/.267  17    3%   84%  28%   88   47/18/35  12%    5.4    94/67

Rengifo could replicate 2022, though the floor is evident:

Rengifo likely moves down in the lineup with the additions of Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury. Rengifo batted first and third through fifth in 80% of his plate appearances out of necessity. While that should impact his runs plus RBI, the 97 total in 2022 seems repeatable in a better-projected lineup. Lineup spot aside, Rengifo's xBA aligned, so the actual BA probably won't regress much.
Rengifo made contact at an above-average rate but used a more aggressive approach last season. His Swing% increased by nearly six points, and his chase rate jumped by 3.5 points from 2021, similar to the trend from his career norms. With the aggressive approach, Rengifo's strikeout rate dipped and didn't impact his batting average.
Given Rengifo's below-average barrel rate and xPX, expect his HR total to regress with the xHR in alignment. He showed the athleticism and Spd to compile 8-10 stolen bases or more with a season's worth of plate appearances. However, the Angels hovered near the league average in stolen base opportunities.

Outside of Rengifo's contact skills, he lacks multiple standout metrics, and the 57 BPV summarizes the concerns. As a switch-hitter, Rengifo crushed lefties in 172 PA, with a .909 OPS and 156 wRC+. Against righties, Rengifo struggled with a .629 OPS and 76 wRC+ in 339 PA. The downside scenario involves Rengifo losing opportunities via potential platoons and the lower lineup spot. On the flip side, Rengifo likely holds utility-player value with injuries or other team issues. Around pick 300, Rengifo is a fair value, especially with the middle and corner infield eligibility, though he's somewhat of a boring compiler.

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After $8 in 2021, Gibson's fantasy value plummeted to $-12 in 2022... With the Phillies, Kyle Gibson (RHP, BAL) posted a 5.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 20.1% K%, and 6.7% BB% in 167.2 IP. Gibson joins his third team since leaving the Twins. He should provide some durability with his fifth straight season of 150 IP or more, not including 2020. Is he worth a look as a late-round streaming pitcher?

Year   IP   ERA/xERA BB%   K%  K-BB  Ball%  SwK   Vel   G/L/F    H%/S%  HR/F/xHR/F
====  ===  ========= === ====  ====  ===== ====  ====  ========  =====  ==========
2018  197  3.62/3.95 10%  22%   12%   40%  11.7  93.0  50/22/28  29/76   15%/15%
2019  160  4.82/4.02  8%  23%   15%   39%  13.4  93.3  51/25/24  34/70   20%/20%
2020   67  5.35/4.37 10%  19%    9%   40%   9.6  92.3  51/27/22  32/69   27%/24%
2021  182  3.71/4.07  8%  21%   12%   39%  10.8  92.5  52/19/29  28/72   23%/17%
2022  168  5.05/3.98  7%  20%   13%   36%  11.3  91.8  46/20/34  32/65   14%/13%

Gibson eats innings, but his skills point to a streamer that lacks upside:

Gibson's xERA typically hovered around 4.00, indicating he was expected to perform as a streamer. Unfortunately, Gibson's luck factors regressed from 2021, including H%, S%, and HR/9. While Gibson's velocity has declined, he showed a league-average SwK.
Gibson's slider remains dominant with a 19% SwK and .281 wOBA, though the slider's SwK keeps slowly declining. He consistently mixes in four to five offerings and attacks right-handed and left-handed hitters differently. Although Gibson uses his sinker most often overall and against right-handed hitters, he may want to adjust the usage, given its 23.1% HR/F, over three points higher than its career norm. It has consistently been one of his worst pitches, with a .459 SLG and .369 wOBA in 2022, though it has an above-average movement profile.
Against righties, Gibson uses the sinker (35.7%), slider (30.8%), and cutter (16.5%). Meanwhile, he flips the usage to rely on the cut fastball (28.3%), sinker (18.6%), changeup (17.4%), four-seamer (15.6%), and curve (11.3%) against left-handed hitters. Interestingly, he ditches the slider as his least used pitch against lefties, though it's still effective with a .259 SLG and .258 wOBA.

Gibson's early ADP sits outside pick 450, which seems reasonable based on his 2022 season. In Baltimore, Gibson moves back to a pitcher-friendly park with the recent ballpark changes. His xERA hints at a streaming pitcher, though he's a one-pitch pitcher, with the slider being most effective. Consider drafting him in draft-and-hold and AL-only formats as an innings eater with streamer upside, if we can call it that.

Merrifield posted five-straight seasons of $30 or more but fell to $17 in 2022... With the Blue Jays and Royals, Whit Merrifield (2B/OF, TOR) finished with 11 HR, 16 SB, and a .250 BA in 550 plate appearances. He averaged 698 plate appearances since 2017, not including 2020, with three consecutive seasons with over 700. Do Merrifield's skills indicate a potential bounce-back season?

Year   PA  HR/xHR  OBA   BA/xBA  bb%  ct%  Brl%  HctX   PX/xPX    G/L/F  HR/F  SB
====  ===  ======  === ========= ===  ===  ====  ====  =======  ======== ====  ==
2017  630   19/20  324 .288/.270   5   85   5.1   105   90/111  38/22/40   9%  34 
2018  707   12/20  367 .304/.269   9   82   4.6   111   85/100  35/30/35   7%  45     
2019  735   16/17  348 .302/.276   6   82   4.3   108   83/105  38/29/33   9%  20
2020  265     9/7  325 .282/.275   5   87   5.1    83   79/ 78  37/26/37  11%  12
2021  720   10/16  317 .277/.263   6   84   3.5    90   70/ 85  41/24/35   5%  40
2022  550    11/9  298 .250/.250   7   83   4.2    91   80/104  41/20/39   7%  16

Merrifield's ADP plummeted due to his low lineup spot and lack of production, though the skills remain consistent:

Throughout Merrifield's career, he's outperformed his xBA and boasted a solid BABIP, though it has declined in recent years. His h% dropped a few points from 2021 and his career average, with the LD% aligning. If the LD% rebounds, Merrifield's h% should also, assuming he maintains his speed.
After batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the Royals, he batted in the bottom third of the order in 91% of his plate appearances with the Blue Jays. Monitor that trend because that's concerning if that continues into 2023, though it's likely he'll hit towards the top of the order.

Merrifield's above-average contact and below-average power skills probably won't change. That said, we're hoping for the batting average to bounce back with a reliance on runs and stolen bases. Unfortunately, Merrifield's lineup spot may remain in the bottom third. That shouldn't impact the steals but will affect the runs as a compiler. After being a top-50 pick in past years, Merrifield's ADP rightfully fell to around 190 in early drafts. There's a chance that Merrifield becomes a value selection depending on roster construction.

A groin injury affected Ober's availability in 2022... After 92.1 IP in 2021, Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) threw 56 IP with a 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 22.5% K%, and 4.8% BB%. Since the Twins acquired Pablo López via trade, reports indicate Ober could start in Triple-A. Do Ober's skills point towards a potential rotation spot?

Year   IP   ERA/xERA   BB%/K%   SwK   Vel    G/L/F   H%/S%  HR/F  BPV   R$
====  ===  =========  =======  ====  ====  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===
2021   92  4.19/4.13   5%/25%  11.8  92.4  33/21/46  30/75   17%  129   $-1   
2022   56  3.21/4.20   5%/23%  13.9  91.6  28/21/51  29/71    5%  106    $1

Ober's skills make him worth drafting, even with the rotation spot concerns:

After an xERA similar to his actual ERA in 2021, Ober improved his ratios in 2022, though the xERA hinted at regression. While his luck was fairly similar, Ober allowed fewer home runs, which significantly fell in a smaller sample in 2022. As a flyball pitcher relying on control and command, there's a chance his HR/9 inches close to 1.0 or higher.
Ober's SwK increased by two points due to the slider (18.8%) and changeup (16.5%) significantly missing more bats, up around 5-6 points for each pitch. He lowered the four-seam usage by nearly nine points to 49.1% and increased the slider by five points. The slider's results improved notably against right-handed hitters, with a .269 SLG and .205 wOBA versus .508 and .332 in 2021. Ober has a clear game plan against left-handed hitters, adjusting his pitch mix to rely more on the fastball and changeup.

With the news in mid-January that Ober could start in the minors, his ADP fell about 50 picks from around 300 to 350. Outside of a rotation spot, Ober has the strikeout and control skills to provide a steady floor with upside. The Twins could use a six-man rotation, with Kenta Maeda returning from Tommy John surgery, plus Tyler Mahle closing the season with a shoulder injury. Mahle's injury news has been positive, but Ober has a path to a rotation spot to begin the season, if not in April or May. That makes him a worthy selection at his ADP as a sleeper once again.

Arroyo's utility role led to career highs across the board... Christian Arroyo (2B, BOS) compiled six HR and five SB, with a .286 BA in 300 plate appearances. Arroyo made himself viable as a real-life and fantasy option through his versatility, though he dealt with injuries (groin, calf, hand). With early reports indicating Arroyo is the Red Sox' starting second baseman, should we target him in early drafts? What do the skills indicate?

Year  PA    BA/xBA    HR   bb%   ct%   h%  HctX  GB/LD/FB  hr/f  Brl%   PX/xPX  
====  ===  =========  ==   ===  ====  ===  ====  ========  ====  ====  ========   
2020   54  .240/.209   3    7%   78%  25%  113    56/5/38  20%    7.7   98/121   
2021  181  .262/.257   6    4%   73%  32%   89   49/20/31  16%    7.4   119/84
2022  300  .286/.275   6    4%   83%  33%  114   45/25/29   9%    6.4    82/79

While Arroyo is a compiler, his lineup spot and skills are steady:

Arroyo boasts an above-average hit tool with a quality contact rate, and the xBA is close to his actual BA. He batted in the bottom half (sixth through ninth) in 80.7% of his plate appearances, and the Red Sox moved him all over the lineup. Arroyo sprays the ball all over the field and maintains a healthy LD%.
He showed a league-average barrel rate, with a below-average xPX yet a sneaky good maximum exit velocity (83rd percentile). There's a chance the home run luck regresses, though it would help impending regression if he elevated his launch angle.
From a speed standpoint, the Red Sox ran at a below-average rate, three points below the league norms. However, Arroyo converted five out of six stolen bases in limited opportunities. Even if the team allows him to run more often, he probably won't compile more than 12 stolen bases over a full season.

Arroyo played in five different positions, not including DH, with outfield (17) and shortstop (14) as potential added eligibility. Over the past month, his ADP sat around pick 500, but it gradually rose 50 to 75 picks with the news of his starting gig. It's rare to find playing time late in drafts, though Arroyo will bat toward the bottom of the lineup. Add in the projected dual or triple positional flexibility, and he's worth the cost. There's a good chance Arroyo compiles his way to 10+ HR and 10+ SB with a healthy BA.