BATTING: Gambles

In the March 17th edition of BaseballHQ Radio, BHQ founder and publisher Ron Shandler referred to “recency bias,” the tendency to infer what will happen based on what happened most recently.

For fantasy owners, recency bias is the mistake of looking at just the 2011 season (or, even worse, at the current spring training) to infer appropriate expectations for 2012.

Of course, it is possible that a batter who had a tremendous 2011 indeed established a new baseline for 2012 and beyond. But the careful fantasy owner wants to see more evidence before jumping on a batter’s bandwagon. To do otherwise is really gambling on a repeat rather than carefully considering the likelihood of that repeat.

In this edition of the Batting Buyers...

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