BATTING: Gambles

In the March 17th edition of BaseballHQ Radio, BHQ founder and publisher Ron Shandler referred to “recency bias,” the tendency to infer what will happen based on what happened most recently.

For fantasy owners, recency bias is the mistake of looking at just the 2011 season (or, even worse, at the current spring training) to infer appropriate expectations for 2012.

Of course, it is possible that a batter who had a tremendous 2011 indeed established a new baseline for 2012 and beyond. But the careful fantasy owner wants to see more evidence before jumping on a batter’s bandwagon. To do otherwise is really gambling on a repeat rather than carefully considering the likelihood of that repeat.

In this edition of the Batting Buyers...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Batters

Luis Garcia's steadily increasing exit velocity and launch rate spike give him breakout potential in 2025.
Sep 23 2024 3:09am
In our last installment this season, a look at the lineup spots for James Wood, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Junior Caminero.
Sep 6 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill's huge multi-category contributions in August came with strong underlying support.
Sep 2 2024 3:07am
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seemed destined for greatness from the time he was a teenager, but he has had an up-and-down journey in the Major Leagues. We dig into how he has bounced back in 2024.
Aug 27 2024 3:08am
The exciting early returns from James Wood would accelerate quickly if he could figure out a way to loft the ball against lefties.
Aug 26 2024 3:06am

Tools