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The Arrival of Jared Jones; changes for Hunter Greene and Jordan Hicks
Apr 12 2024
Jared Jones (RHP, PIT) is Breaking Out
Jared Jones, not Paul Skenes, has lit up the fantasy baseball world as a prospect arm making an impact in 2024. Skenes likely makes his way to the majors sometime during the season, but Jones dominated in his first two outings for the Pirates. Jones had 22 whiffs in his first start and 21 in his second. That translated to a 24.7 percent swinging strike rate in his debut outing with 26.3 percent in his second start against the Orioles.
Jones joined one of seven starting pitchers to elicit 20 or more whiffs at 22 years or younger from 2015 to 2024. Three pitchers recorded 20 or more whiffs three times in a season, including Jack Flaherty, Noah Syndergaard, and Jose Fernandez. Jones will likely reach or exceed the three-game mark of 20 or more whiffs at his age.
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Jones uses a reliever-type arsenal or somewhat of a Spencer Strider-like approach in his early career with four-seamers and sliders. The four-seamer and slider accounted for 86-87 percent of his arsenal through two starts. He sprinkled in a curveball and change-up around 10 percent of the time, but he hardly used it through two starts, so we need more data.
It's hard to fault Jones because the fastball and slider combination appears deadly. His slider rocks a 24.6 percent swinging-strike rate with the four-seamer generating swinging strikes 21.5 percent of the time. Unsurprisingly, Jones had low swing-and-miss rates on the change-up and curve since he hardly uses those pitches.
Optimal Pitch Locations and Movement
Jones uses the four-seamers up the zone and sliders down, which typically presents a fruitful formula for whiffs and weak contact. It's a guess, but we want to speculate on pitchers who locate their pitches in the shadow area of the zone quite often. We mentioned that issue briefly in March, related to Cole Ragans throwing two of his better pitches in the shadow area of the zone.
For reference, the shadow area consists of sections close to the outside of the strike zone, which tends to lead to swings and misses. The zone plot above shows the pitch percentages in the shadow zone and overall for the four-seamer and slider. It shows he dominates and prefers to throw the breaker down and away from right-handed hitters.
| Player | Pitch Type | Season | Glove/Arm Side Movement | Vertical Movement w/o Gravity (in) | Vertical Release Point (ft) | Horizontal Release Point (ft) |
| Jones, Jared RHP | Four-Seam | 2024 | 8.9 ARM | 18.3 | 5.42 | -1.44 |
| Jones, Jared RHP | Four-Seam | Triple-A - 2023 | 10.5 ARM | 16.0 | 5.62 | -2.09 |
Furthermore, Jones's above-average induced vertical break (IVB) of over 18 inches and a near-elite vertical approach angle (VAA) of -3.7 degrees on the four-seamer makes it difficult for hitters to square up. It's slightly different from the four-seamer in Triple-A, with two inches more IVB through two starts.
The four-seamer performed well against lefties with a .247 wOBA in 2024 through two starts. However, the xwOBA of .481 compared to the actual of .272 against right-handed hitters might mean some regression on the four-seamer. Regardless, the IVB and attack angle on the four-seamer and slider make them two deadly options which back up the results.
Summary
The skills have been near-elite for Jones through two starts. If fantasy managers rostered Jones, they're likely taking victory laps. His stuff is filthy enough to make up for any control or command issues, which haven't surfaced yet (just a 26 percent ball rate) but will need to be watched. For now, the arsenal for Jones looks like an above-average to near-elite starting pitcher. The Strider comparisons, while lofty, may just come to pass.
Hunter Greene (RHP, CIN) Making a Slight Change
In the off-season, Hunter Greene worked on a curveball and splitter, which would complement his arsenal well. Interestingly, Greene has barely introduced the two so far, mainly relying on the slider (49.7 percent) and four-seamer (44.7 percent) accounting for 95 percent of his pitches in 2024.
Maybe Greene doesn't need additional pitches since he thrived on the fastball and breaker early in 2024. Some faded Greene and Reds' starting pitchers given the hitter-friendly ballpark. The slider has elicited the most whiffs with a career swinging strike rate of 17.5 percent. His four-seamer generates the next most swings and misses at 12.1 percent in his career, though it's at a career low of 10.5 percent in 2024.
| Player | Pitch Type | Season | Glove/Arm Side Movement | Vertical Movement w/o Gravity (in) | Vertical Release Point (ft) | Horizontal Release Point (ft) |
| Greene, Hunter RHP | Four-Seam | 2024 | 9.9 ARM | 17.4 | 6.12 | -2.04 |
| Greene, Hunter RHP | Four-Seam | 2023 | 11.6 ARM | 15.3 | 5.98 | -2.39 |
| Greene, Hunter RHP | Four-Seam | 2022 | 11.6 ARM | 16 | 6.01 | -2.32 |
We've heard about the four-seamer not being optimal for Greene, and that used to be the case. However, Greene's heater is pushing near the above-average range of 18 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). That's partly due to the release point changes, and his four-seamer also doesn't have as much arm-side fade as in the past.
In 2024, Greene has a slightly higher release point with the horizontal release being over the top and closer to the midline of his body. That seems to have caused Greene's four-seamer to come in a steeper vertical approach angle in 2023, and hitters smashed it.
The four-seamer IVB is notable because he threw it in the upper third of zone 11 percent of the time in 2022 and nine percent in 2023, which typically translates to whiffs. However, it led to a .323 wOBA and 10.1 percent SwK when Greene threw the four-seamer up in the zone in 2022 and 2023.
Interestingly, Greene has thrown his four-seamer at the lowest rate of his career in the upper third at eight percent in 2024, though it's a small sample. With the change in IVB on the four-seamer, Greene allows a .225 wOBA in the small 2024 sample.
- 2024 Four-Seam VAA: -5.0 Degrees
- 2023 Four-Seam VAA: -4.6 Degrees
We notice a slightly steeper vertical approach angle (VAA) on the fastball after seeing the change in IVB and four-seamer location. That's typically not what we want to see in a four-seamer that becomes steeper if we think about a completely flat fastball at zero degrees. An above-average VAA for a four-seamer thrown up in the zone would push close to -4 degrees, with elite ones of -3.7 degrees or more. Some pitchers with elite four-seamer VAA up the zone in 2023 include Joe Ryan, Freddy Peralta, and Bryan Woo.
So what does that mean? It means Greene's four-seamer typically ends up lower in the zone, where hitters can attack the it. Ideally, the VAA shifts toward -4 degrees, meaning it's less steep and hitters will have a harder time hitting it. It could be an attempt to change the shape of the four-seamer for Greene, and it seems to be generating more "ride", but still not above average for the pitch.
Keep tabs on the pitch's shape, IVB, and VAA because if improved, it will likely unlock another level of upside as it becomes a weapon against lefties and righties. In Greene's career, the four-seamer allows a .408 wOBA and 7.5 percent barrels per plate appearance against right-handed hitters. It's better, but not by much, against lefties (.352 wOBA, 6.2 percent barrels per plate appearance). That's especially true if the curve and splitter we heard about in the offseason don't become a more significant part of his profile.
Summary
Through two starts, we haven't seen the curve and splitter be a priority option in Greene's arsenal. It may take some time before Greene has confidence in an additional breaking pitch and splitter. If the four-seamer continues to add IVB with a strange VAA, it might be a mixed bag for him. That's especially true if his four-seamer continues to struggle against both sides of the plate, and he might be more of a one-pitch pitcher.
However, we've seen release point and IVB changes early in 2024, so we'll continue to monitor that throughout the season. It could be early season noise or some actionable changes for Greene to fix his four-seamer to pair with the nasty slider. Be cautious with Greene because we'll have some volatility in his profile. Regardless, it's a notable arsenal change for Greene in 2024.
Is Jordan Hicks (SP, SFG) a Legitimate Starter?
When the results look positive, people take the victory laps. However, what if the process and inputs don't match the results? By process and inputs, we mean skills. Through three starts in 2024, consisting of 18 innings, Hicks rocks a 1.00 ERA with a 3.30 xERA, 15 percent strikeout minus walk rate, and nine percent swinging strike rate. It's early, but Hicks has shown better control with a 35.3 percent ball rate.
That's over four percentage points lower than his career ball rate of 39.4 percent, so we'll see if Hicks maintains it with more pitches and innings. Thankfully, he still generates tons of groundballs via the sinker (64.7 percent), which he locates low in the zone.
As a starter, Hicks lowered his sinker usage (seven-point decline) while increasing the sweeper (two points more) and splitter (14 points more). Unsurprisingly, the velocity dropped a few mph because it's likely unsustainable to maintain the 100 mph sinker and harder pitches with more volume as a starter. Whenever velocity changes, we want to look at movement profiles.
| Player | Pitch Type | Season | Glove/Arm Side Movement | Vertical Movement w/o Gravity (in) | Vertical Release Point (ft) | Horizontal Release Point (ft) |
| Hicks, Jordan RHP | Sinker | 2024 | 16.4 ARM | 6.9 | 5.78 | -1.71 |
| Hicks, Jordan RHP | Sinker | 2023 | 15.8 ARM | 8.4 | 5.93 | -1.80 |
| Hicks, Jordan RHP | Sinker | 2022 | 15.8 ARM | 8.0 | 6.01 | -2.10 |
The sinker shifted slightly with more arm-side run, yet the horizontal approach angle moved a bit where it looks like it heads towards the inside of the plate toward lefties than in the past. Thankfully, Hicks' sinker located down in the zone, has a solid attack angle, as his vertical release point dropped, causing the pitch to have a slightly steeper VAA of -5.9 degrees (2024) compared to -5.7 degrees (2023).
That's evident in the vertical movement increasing for the sinker, which theoretically makes his fastball harder to hit. Hopefully, he can keep the sinker low in the zone to generate tons of groundballs.
However, the sinker struggles against lefties with a .478 wOBA in 2024 and .322 wOBA in 2023. Hopefully, the splitter helps balance out the left-handed hitter issues, allowing a .201 wOBA in 2024.
Hicks' sweeper hasn't changed much, but the splitter dropped nearly six inches more than in 2023, though he lightly used it (1.6 percent of the time) last season. That's happening since Hicks has thrown the splitter over six mph slower, causing it to drop more. It's early, but it appears like a nasty offering for Hicks with more vertical movement, as it generates a 19.4 percent SwK in the small 2024 sample.
Summary
It's interesting to have several relievers turned starting pitchers like Hicks, Michael King, and A.J. Puk. Some garnered more confidence than others, but Hicks may have arguably seen the most success in the early parts of 2024. We can't have it all, but we hope Hicks can elicit more swings and misses. Expect some regression in the ball rate and luck factors, but there's no denying the skills exist given the career-best BPV albeit a small sample. The splitter could add another level of whiffs to balance the regression, so keep tabs on the splitter movement and usage.
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