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(*) MINORS: Using Pitcher Age to Find Potential Breakouts
May 16 2023
Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP, MIN)
In my last article, I took a look at how a pitcher’s age at a given level of the minor leagues correlated with major league outcomes (e.g., chance of reaching the majors, overall value, playing time). The findings suggested that age has a fairly strong impact, with younger players having better outcomes across the board, consistent with the previous analysis of batters. I used these findings to identify some cutoffs to keep in mind and help guide decision-making for dynasty managers. The table below shows these cutoffs for both low and high-risk ages.
Level Low-Risk Age High-Risk Age ======== ============== ============= Triple-A 23 or Younger 26 or Older Double-A 22 or Younger 24 or Older High-A 20 or Younger 22 or Older Single-A 19 or Younger 21 or Older
We’re still in the early portion of the minor league season, with individual sample sizes below 50 innings pitched. As such, there is still a ton of variance in pitchers’ season stat lines, making it difficult to comfortably make judgments on players as they acclimate to their assignments. As I did with batters, we can look at a player’s age to help sort through some of the noise. When a young pitcher is given an aggressive assignment, it’s an indication that the MLB organization feels that that pitcher is advanced in some way compared to their peers of the same age. It’s not a foolproof indicator, as even MLB organizations occasionally get it wrong, but it’s more reliable at this point in the season than the traditional stats when evaluating a player. We don’t need to wait for age to stabilize to be confident in it. Like I did with the takeaways from the batter age analysis, we can apply the pitcher analysis findings to this season’s group of young pitchers at every level to find some relatively new names worth highlighting.
Let’s take a look at each pitcher currently at each level of full-season minor league ball who qualifies as low-risk based on age. Stats are presented as of 5/13/23. Age is determined as age on 6/30/23 (roughly mid-season).
Compared to the batters, there are a ton more names here to sort through for each “low-risk” group at each level. For this reason, we’ll take a more discerning eye and look at only those aged 22 or younger at Triple-A, 21 or younger at Double-A, and 19 or younger at High-A and Single-A. All of the players below are at least worthy of close monitoring, but I’ll rely a little more on season stats this time to pick out some of the more interesting names. I’ll also exclude pitchers who are currently pitching more in relief roles.
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Triple-A, 22 or Younger
Name Org Age IP ERA K% BB% ======================= ===== ==== ==== ===== ==== ===== Kyle Harrison SFG 21 21.1 3.47 39.6 22.6 Taj Bradley TBR 22 16.0 11.25 16.7 11.5 Simeon Woods Richardson MIN 22 21.1 7.17 21.6 8.2 Quinn Priester PIT 22 31.2 5.40 23.9 8.0 Blake Walston ARI 22 34.1 2.36 14.8 14.8 Michael McGreevy STL 22 18.2 2.41 17.1 6.6
Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP, MIN): Woods Richardson has held a decent profile as a pitching prospect throughout his rise to the majors. He’s logged 9.2 Major League innings after making his debut in 2022 and making a few appearances so far this season. He’s had inconsistent results, but has been notably young at every level and has shown decent strikeout/command upside. He’s been a good semi-sleeper target in dynasty leagues and that continues to be the case.
Blake Walston (LHP, ARI): Walston has opened the 2023 season with a Triple-A assignment, earning confidence from the Diamondbacks with a solid Double-A performance. So far, he’s struggled to get the same swing-and-miss he’s had throughout his minor league career and will likely need some extended time to acclimate before making the leap to the majors.
Double-A, 21 or Younger
Name Org Age IP ERA K% BB% ====================== ===== ==== ==== ===== ==== ===== Cristian Mena CHW 20 27.2 4.55 39.3 6.0 AJ Smith-Shawver ATL 21 7.0 0.00 31.0 10.3 Ricky Tiedemann TOR 21 12.2 4.97 42.6 13.0 Junior Santos NYM 21 29.2 6.07 15.4 10.0 Anthony Molina TBR 21 25.1 6.04 20.5 8.5 Jaime Melendez HOU 21 9.2 5.59 18.2 15.9 Joey Estes OAK 21 25.0 4.68 20.5 9.8 Sem Robberse TOR 21 32.2 4.96 25.7 10.3 Jared Jones PIT 21 16.0 2.81 22.4 9.0 Tekoah Roby TEX 21 29.0 6.83 24.2 6.3 Mick Abel PHI 21 25.0 5.40 27.4 12.3 Dax Fulton MIA 21 33.0 5.18 26.4 12.8 Case Williams COL 21 26.2 8.44 12.2 16.3 Carlos F. Rodriguez MIL 21 28.2 1.88 34.5 10.9
Cristian Mena (RHP, CHW): Mena has been a strikeout machine throughout his minors career, and he is continuing that trend into 2023 while also walking very few batters. He actually reached Double-A in 2022 and could very well reach Triple-A as a mere 20-year-old. With continued production like this, there’s a chance he rises through the offseason as one of the top 50 prospects in the game.
Sem Robberse (RHP, TOR): Robberse is another youngster who reached Double-A to finish the 2022 season. While he hasn’t shown quite the strikeout upside that Mena has, his current 25.7 K% looks like a bit of an underperformance given his 14.8% SwK. The BB% has also ticked up, but he should likely finish the season in Triple-A as one of the youngest at the level and could similarly rise up the ranks in short order.
Tekoah Roby (RHP, TEX): Roby is on a quick rise through the minors after making his pro debut at Single-A in 2021. Now in Double-A, he is continuing to build an intriguing strikeout/command resume that rivals some of the best pitching prospects. He has given up plenty of home runs the past two seasons but he has also shown decent GB ability, and has the preciousness and bat-missing stuff to bet on.
Carlos F. Rodriguez (RHP, MIL): Rodriguez has been pushed to Double-A as a 21-year-old and appears to be continuing on a starter development path, signifying a good deal of confidence from a vaunted pitching development org in the Brewers. He is building a terrific resume with great run prevention metrics and strikeout numbers. His home run rates will likely increase with a greater sample size, but there’s definitely cushioning for him to rise up the ranks nonetheless.
High-A, 19 or Younger
Name Org Age IP ERA K% BB% ================= ===== ==== ==== ===== ==== ===== Caden Dana LAA 19 14.2 6.75 30.0 10.0 Victor Lizarraga SDP 19 20.2 5.66 15.7 5.6 Mitch Bratt TEX 19 20.2 3.48 27.0 3.4 Yu-Min Lin ARI 19 18.0 4.00 34.3 9.0
Caden Dana (RHP, LAA): Dana started the season in Single-A before quickly earning a promotion to High-A thanks to elite strikeout numbers and improved walk rates. His ERA has ballooned at High-A thanks to a big jump in home runs, albeit in a small sample. The Angels are an aggressive organization when promoting their prospects, but Dana has the upside to handle it.
Mitch Bratt (LHP, TEX): Bratt has been great in his first taste of High-A this season, as evidenced by his 23.6 K-BB%. If he can hold this production deep into starts consistently, he’ll be a quick riser. Look for him to get stretched out as the season progresses, as the Rangers appear determined to develop him as a starter.
Yu-Min Lin (LHP, ARI): Lin impressed in his first taste of full-season ball last season, and has continued to show intriguing strikeout stuff this season at High-A. He’s been adept in his limited pro track record at giving up almost no home runs, though the environment in Hillsboro is favorable for that. He’ll likely spend most of the season at High-A as a 19-year-old, but if he can consistently hold his stuff deeper into outings over a full season, he could be a very sneaky riser.
Single-A, 19 or Younger
Name Org Age IP ERA K% BB% ==================== ===== ==== ==== ===== ==== ===== Leonard Garcia LAA 19 27.1 5.95 24.2 9.2 Yujanyer Herrera MIL 19 19.1 4.19 20.5 19.3 Carlos Marcano DET 19 18.0 8.00 15.3 17.6 Deivy Cruz BAL 19 18.2 4.82 30.1 19.3 Gerlemi Maldonado SFG 19 18.1 5.40 18.8 21.2 Jordy Vargas COL 19 31.0 4.65 25.6 8.8 Jedixson Paez BOS 19 11.0 5.73 27.5 5.9 Eliander Alcalde TOR 19 18.1 3.93 28.9 14.5 Alessandro Ercolani PIT 19 19.2 5.03 17.6 14.1 Juan Reynoso MIA 19 17.1 9.35 23.6 28.1 Jacob Steinmetz ARI 19 18.0 3.00 19.7 14.5 Walbert Urena LAA 19 22.1 7.66 25.2 16.2 Jarlin Susana WSN 19 15.2 5.17 27.0 20.3 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz BOS 19 17.1 2.60 12.7 15.2 Jacob Miller MIA 19 27.0 5.00 22.6 9.4 Owen Murphy ATL 19 17.1 3.12 30.4 8.9 Seth Keller ATL 19 19.0 0.95 23.2 2.9 Karson Milbrandt MIA 19 27.0 6.33 22.7 12.6 Brandon Barriera TOR 19 7.0 5.14 37.0 14.8 Robby Snelling SDP 19 26.2 1.35 26.7 10.9 Jackson Ferris CHC 19 6.0 9.00 39.1 8.7 Jackson Cox COL 19 3.0 6.00 15.4 7.7
Leonard Garcia (LHP, LAA): Surprise, surprise: another Angels' prospect joins the list of the youngest prospects at each level. Garcia is backing it up so far though, with decent production under the hood despite his track record of very high ERAs. He needs to learn to keep runners from scoring and keep the ball on the ground more before he gets the call to High-A. Given the org, that’s not out of the question this season.
Jedixson Paez (RHP, BOS): Paez has only pitched 11 innings so far this season, but his DSL and complex-league stats seem to suggest potential for advanced command. If these strikeout/walk numbers hold up over the minor league season, he could rise quickly. Still a ton of variance here, but the Red Sox seem to be bullish.
Seth Keller (RHP, ATL): Still just 18-years-old, Keller opened the season with the Single-A squad and has barely given up any runs, or let anyone on base for that matter (it’s a 0.74 WHIP to be exact). That’s obviously due for some correction, but it’s absolutely noteworthy given his age and the confidence from the Braves, who selected him in the sixth round of last year’s draft. He’ll need to up the whiffs and punchouts to really grow his prospect stock, but there’s tons of potential here.
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