RESEARCH: The Predictive value of Deserved HR


In December 2016, we introduced the concept of Deserved and Undeserved Homeruns (part 1, part 2). We used Statcast data for Launch Angle (LA) and Exit Velocity (EV) of batted balls to determine the likelihood of any batted ball would result in a homerun, and comparing that to the actual number of homeruns that were allowed by pitcher or hit by a batter.

In this article, we’ll improve the methodology by using a more elegant mathematical fit, improve our handling of park effects on homerun odds, and also investigate the predictive value of Deserved Homeruns.

Improving the Model

Note: we'll spend a little more time on the mathematical model. The analysis of predictive value begins about half way down.

The original model used a...


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