RESEARCH: Hidden Splits Reveal Surprising Power Potential

When forecasting baseball player performance, it is a widely accepted truth that the recent past is the most reliable indicator of what will happen in the near future. Most proprietary projection models are designed around this principle, believing that more years of data will yield stronger baselines and that more complex inputs will deliver higher precision. However, dropping these kinds of statistical anchors means that we will never stray very far from the safety of known land, and it makes it difficult for us to see -- and nearly impossible to fully explore -- more than a few miles from where we are now.

In this article, we will largely free ourselves from the weight of these anchors and venture into uncharted statistical waters....


You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From R&A Studies

Outmaneuver your competitors by replacing watered-down ADP with detailed draft-level analytics for 12-team and 15-team mixed leagues
Mar 22 2024 12:55pm
Updating xSB in light of recent MLB rule changes.
Feb 9 2024 3:02am
The pitching landscape has shifted yet again, and our Pure Quality Start metric undergoes a minor shift to level-set the results.
Dec 20 2023 10:10am
2023 draft-level analytics from dozens of individual NFBC drafts to complete your last-mile preparation
Mar 26 2023 1:00pm
Unveiling six new eye-opening playing time metrics to help fantasy managers accumulate more "volume" by first understanding its sources.
Feb 16 2023 1:07am