Uncovering 2025's Top ADP Risers

Previously in this space, we looked at speculative recency bias rebounders based on the biggest drops in ADP compared to last year. Let's flip that concept around and take a look at the highest hitter ADP risers (2025 ADP from February NFBC drafts):

	ADP
Player	2024	2025
Jackson Merrill	261	26
James Wood	423	52
Jackson Chourio	125	17
Lawrence Butler	442	64
Jarren Duran	135	21
Brent Rooker	309	63
Brenton Doyle	339	69
Junior Caminero	336	75
Jordan Westburg	313	77
Dylan Crews	449	116
William Contreras	87	23
Ketel Marte	117	32
Matt McLain	328	91
Luis García Jr.	422	128

It doesn't do us much good to speculate on these guys now—their breakout already happened and you're now paying a premium—but what can we learn from this list to identify who might be on it next season? We'll dive into what drove the breakouts of three names bolded above—Jackson Merrill, Jarren Duran, and Brenton Doyle—and apply the findings to this year's player pool. Let's see who turns up!

 

Finding the next… Jackson Merrill:

Merrill was a relative afterthought compared to other top-flight prospects going earlier in drafts last season, but he somewhat unexpectedly cracked San Diego's starting lineup out of camp and never looked back, besting the rookie class with a .292 BA, 24 HR, and 16 SB. Some traits from Merrill's breakout that we'll apply to this year's pool include:

• Moderate prospect pedigree. Must be on our 2025 HQ100, but outside the Top 20 (Merrill ranked 16th on our 2024 HQ100).
• Decent crack at a starting job.
• Post-200 ADP.

Matt Shaw fits this comp to a tee. He's the favorite for the Chicago Cubs' starting 3B job, he's #21 on our 2025 HQ100 prospect list, and his current projection (.253 BA, 15 HR, 22 SB in 442 PA) suggests we don't need to squint that much to see Merrill-type production right out of the gate. Tack on a palatable price (204 February ADP in NFBC drafts), and Shaw is the exact type of shot we like to shoot in the middle/late rounds.

Colson Montgomery is somewhat of a stretch given his struggles at Triple-A (.214/.329/.381 in 573 PA last year), but as our own Brian Rudd notes, he turned things around in the Arizona Fall League and is on the team's 40-man roster. We currently have Montgomery with 40% of CHW's shortstop playing time behind Brooks Baldwin (50%), leaving a reasonable path for Montgomery to step in if (err… when?) Baldwin struggles. On a bad team, Montgomery could get a long leash once he gets the call.

(The original version had Chase DeLauter on this list, but we removed him after word of his core surgery on Tuesday.—Ed.)

 

Finding the next… Jarren Duran:

Duran had the skills that led us to an "UP: 15 HR, 40 SB" in last year's Forecaster. Duran was a semi-established major leaguer who hadn't lasted a full season, but was young enough to unlock another level. Our requirements:

• Previous MLB experience in majors, but without a full season of plate appearances.
• "UP:" side player box in the 2025 Baseball Forecaster.
• Under 30 years old.

Gavin Lux is the flower that hasn't bloomed, but he's still just 27 years old and finds himself on a new team for the first time in his career. We gave Lux an “UP: .280 BA, 20 HR” thanks to some impressive 2nd half skills growth, and he should get regular playing time (at least vs. RHP) in the best LH HR ballpark in the game. Lux's issues against lefties likely prevent a Duran-type PA total, but a change of scenery could be just what this post-hype prospect needs.

Other sharp analysts have made the Parker Meadows / Duran comp this year, and for good reason. Meadows has a similar category profile to Duran—we tabbed him with a near-equivalent “UP: 30+ SB” in the Forecaster to go with 17 HR in 595 PA—and he should settle nicely atop Detroit's lineup vs. RHP. Also like Duran, however, Meadows comes with injury risk, as he missed time with a hamstring issue last season and is now dealing with a nerve issue (upper arm) this spring. Assuming his current ailment checks out, Meadows has the skills and playing time ceiling to make for a pretty easy breakout. 

Vinnie Pasquantino is no Duran on the basepaths, but everything else aligns nicely. Pasquantino enters his age-27 with some attractive MLB skills—he was one of just two hitters with an 84% ct% and 130 xPX last season (min. 400 PA; some scrub named Mookie Betts was the other). Pasquantino hasn't made it through an entire MLB season, but each of his ailments (arm in 2022; shoulder in 2023; thumb in 2024) seem more fluky and isolated as opposed to a chronic, recurring issue. Pasquantino should play every day in the middle of a decent KC lineup, so if the bad injury breaks finally subside like they did for Duran last year, we're in line for some monster four-category production.

 

Finding the next… Brenton Doyle: We'll take this from a "he's a guy who should play regularly on a bad team" angle here with Doyle, who showed no real signs of a breakout leading up to 2024 (.209 xBA, 13 xHR, 22 xSB in 431 PA in 2023). Our trio finds themselves in similar playing time situations, albeit with slightly different skills profiles. Our Doyle blueprint:

• Playing time safety on (what should be) a bad team.
• A 250+ ADP

We've been here before with Jo Adell, who's still just entering his age-26 season and should get plenty of run in the Los Angeles Angels' outfield. We're already seeing signs of a potential breakout with Adell, who bumped his contact rate to a manageable 68% last season (64% career) while still hitting for power (125 xPX, 12% Brl%) and getting a full green light (30% SBA). Without much, if any, competition for playing time, Adell has the leash for some juicy skills to thrive.

Connor Norby had similar swing-and-miss issues as Doyle in his MLB cameo in 2024 (64% ct% in 194 MLB PA), but the power looks legit, he can run a little, and most importantly, he could be hitting every day near the top of the Miami Marlins lineup since… let's be honest… who else are they going to play? Norby admittedly doesn't have a Duran-esque ceiling, but the playing time ceiling at a growth age and a 270 ADP makes for an excellent late flyer.

Doyle's new teammate Thairo Estrada has been there before—he hit .271 with 14 HR and 23 SB in 2023—but was one of the draft's biggest busts last season. Estrada now finds himself in the friendly confines of Coors Field, which should be a boon for his already-decent BA skills, and without much real competition for the 2B gig, should get plenty of opportunity for his shot at redemption. Estrada shockingly didn't run with SF last year, but if COL gives him the light they gave Doyle in 2024, look out.

 

 

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.

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