SPECULATOR: Recency bias rebounds, 2021 pitchers
Mar 10 2021
Last week in this space, we started a crusade against "recency bias" with hitters whose draft costs are overly influenced by 2020's shortened season.
This week, the journey continues with a trip to the mound. There are several pitchers who were being drafted as aces or top relievers this time last year, but for whatever reason—injury, a drop in previously-stable skills, or just plain old bad luck—the market has soured and their prices have sunk. A couple of simple filters for our list:
- Pitchers with a Top 300 ADP over the last 12 NFBC Draft Champions drafts
- Hitters with more than a $5 drop in "pick value" from 2020 to 2021.
- For details, see Mapping ADPs to Auction Value on Page 60 in the 2021 Baseball Forecaster.
Pitchers with...
Almost!
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