SPECULATOR: Early-round Dodgeball

We've taken quite the rosy approach to most of the Speculator columns so far this season. "UP:" siders (hitters | pitchers), diving into pitch mix changes, or speculating on skills over playing time.

It's time to flip that switch with a more pessimistic tune this week — dodging those early duds.

Stepping on early-round landmines can quickly wipe out any gains made hitting on a late breakout, so instead of dreaming on what some players' 80th-percentile outcomes might look like, we need to consider their 20th-percentile outcomes as well.

This week, we'll tour the first few rounds to uncover potential missteps as we make the case against several early picks. Some of this may seem like blasphemy—these are premier players going early in...

Almost!

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