SPECULATOR: Diving into pitch mix changes

Regression is our game's most powerful force.

Sage advice and a foundational pillar of our fanalytic toolbox, but the Speculator thrives on bending those rules. As we search for new ways to dissect 2022 returns, we'll use pitch-level data to identify starters who changed their approach by switching up their pitch mix. The idea is that with a new arsenal, they're a different pitcher than they were before, and more likely to repeat 2022's success than most might think.

We whipped up a "Change Score" metric in this space a couple years ago to help quantify a pitcher's overall change in pitch mix. As a quick refresher, Change Score is the total difference in pitch usage across a pitcher's entire arsenal. For example, if someone throws his...


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