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RESEARCH: Comparing ERA estimators
Dec 4 2011
When we last visited this topic in March 2011, we rolled out a new version of Expected Earned Run Average or xERA. The development presented both good news and bad news:
- Good news: The latest version of xERA rolled up a lot of pitching research we had done over the last few years into one statistic.
- More good news: Our research showed that the latest version of xERA was significantly better than its predecessor in terms of correlating to the same year’s actual ERA.
- Bad news: Wow, that formula sure is complicated (as shown in the technical note at the end of this article).
In short, should we use the new, highly complex version of xERA or switch to a simpler metric?
Leading ERA Estimators
Ideally, an ERA estimator has...
Almost!
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