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(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Glasnow teed up for big Friday night
Jul 14 2023
Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: All 30 teams are back from the All-Star break today, and the action gets going with SD @ PHI starting at 6:05 pm ET. There are several highly-skilled starters taking on weak offenses tonight. However, weather could be a factor for games the Northeast (SD@PHI, MIA@BAL, LA@NYM) and Midwest (BOS@CHC, TAM@KC), so check lineups and outlook closer to gametime.
Notable Starts:
Tyler Glasnow (RHP, TAM) kicks off the second half with a dream matchup at Kansas City; a day’s best 3.3 overall rating and component scores to match. Glasnow left his last start early due to cramps, but has been cleared for tonight and will look to continue the roll he’s been on over his last three outings: two ERA over his past 16.1 IP, buoyed by a 31/3 K/BB ratio.
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Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA) made the All-Star squad but didn’t pitch, which lines him up to take on a suspect DET lineup at home tonight. Castillo has been fantastic so far (2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20% K-BB%) and the Tigers have produced the third-worst runs per game in MLB (3.89). All signs are “go” for Castillo this evening.
Corbin Burnes (RHP, MIL) has fallen short of ace expectations this season and he will be greeted by the surprising Reds at Great American Ballpark to kick off his second half. It’s not projected to be a soft landing; the Reds have a .754 OPS at home and Burnes’ uncharacteristic 9% walk rate and near-4.00 ERA is reflected in his 0.1 overall Matchup rating.
Kenta Maeda (RHP, MIN) has looked great in his three starts after returning from his injury (three ER over 17 IP; 21/5 K/BB). He’s matched up against the A’s in OAK tonight, who have slashed an anemic .211/.286/.331 at home. Things are lined up for a productive night from Maeda.
Charlie Morton (RHP, ATL) is coming off back-to-back PQS-4 starts and has the day’s second-highest Win rating (after Glasnow) at 2.7. He takes on the White Sox, who have limped to a .669 OPS on the road this season.
J.P. France (RHP, HOU) begins the second half on a down note with a surprising -1.0 overall rating at the Angels, who are in the top-third in runs per game and have a 112 OPS+ against RHP. France’s mildly favorable hit/strand rates (26%/80%) has kept his ERA artificially low this season (3.26 as compared to a 4.54 xERA).
Quick Hits:
- Aaron Civale has taken things up a notch over his two most recent starts (1 ER, 11/1 K/BB) but faces the buzzsaw TEX offense in Arlington tonight. His overall 0.0 rating recommends caution.
- Kyle Hendriks may be rounding into form after missing most of April and May due to injury. In his last three starts (18.2 IP), he has 14 K/1 BB. He faces the Red Sox at Wrigley tonight.
- Eduardo Rodriguez came off the IL on July 5th and got touched for 2 HR by Oakland, in an otherwise positive outing: 7 K/0 BB in 4 IP, velocity strong at 93 MPH. He should be primed for 90+ pitches tonight in Seattle.
- Ryne Nelson looked like he might be figuring something out in late June, with back-to-back strong outings in San Francisco and Los Angeles. Those were his first two PQS-Dominant starts of the season. But then the Mets tagged him for his worst outing of the year, a 3 IP/7 ER debacle before the break. Nelson brings this volatile track record into Toronto tonight.
- Carlos Rodón's start tonight has quite the pro/con list: He's coming off a 69-pitch season debut; facing a terrible Rockies offense (79 OPS+ vs LHP); but the game takes place at Coors Field. His Matchup rating (0.8) is cautiously optimistic.
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