Chris Sale set for Texas showdown

Quickstart Guide on the above table:

  • “Rating” is the overall score for today’s starting pitchers matchup. K / ERA / WHIP / Wins are the individual components that go into the composite “Rating”. 
  • Each of those five columns are sortable and set roughly to a 3.0 (positive) to -3.0 (negative) scale.
  • Best Starts scores are 0.5 and above, and display in green type
  • Judgement Call scores run from 0.4 to -0.4 and display in black type
  • Weak Starts scores are -0.5 and below, and display in red type
  • Player name links to go to an individual pitcher’s PlayerLink page for YTD stats, metrics and deeper analysis
  • This DAILY MATCHUPS page will be live on the site each day around 9am ET. 

Other links/details: 

  • A how-to-use article—which includes additional information on our 2022 format update—can be found here
  • The full explanation behind the rating system (with all the nitty-gritty math) can be found in this 2017 Research article by Arik Florimonte. 
  • You can always access scores for future games at our PITCHER MATCHUPS TOOL page (from Teams/Today’s SP on the top menu). There, you can filter the list by starting pitchers by today, tomorrow, or over the next eight days, as well as by AL-only and NL-only groups. In addition this is where all charts are available in a downloadable, spreadsheet-friendly format for further analysis.
  • For additional resources to help optimize your SP utilization, see our three-year ballpark factors and SP Buyers Guide columns.

Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: We have 15 games on tap, starting with a matinee in Wrigley Field. We should be clear of most weather today as long as some pop-ups don’t arrive like they have in recent days. We have some ace pitching but a lot of mediocre pitching as well, resulting in a few games with a total of nine runs or higher and a total of 11 in Coors Field.  

 

Notable Starts:

Chris Sale allowed five runs in his last start but also went seven innings and struck out seven. It was a mixed-bag outing for Sale, who now sports a 4.58 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 20 strikeouts over 17.2 IP, along with a nice 21.1% K-BB and an impressive 14.6% SwStr. The Rangers surprisingly have struggled versus LHP to start the season, striking out 23.6% of the time while only hitting .222 with a .103 ISO. That's part of the reason for strong ratings for Sale in every category today.


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Nick Lodolo was dominant in his season debut, 5.2 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts versus the White Sox. Sure, it was the White Sox, but a 42.9% K-BB and 17.8% SwStr is outstanding. Lodolo is the top-rated starter today with a 2.2 rating as he takes on the Angels in Great American Ball Park. Los Angeles, though, has been good versus LHP to start the season with a .177 ISO and 131 wRC+. There are some reasons to think the overall, ratio, and win ratings may be a bit optimistic. 

Joe Ryan has been excellent in his first three starts this season. He has allowed five earned runs over 17 innings for a 2.60 ERA with 24 strikeouts and a stellar 31.4% K-BB. Ryan takes on a Tigers team that is striking out 25.2% of the time versus RHP with a .208 average and .115 ISO. Ryan’s 2.5 strikeout rating stands out and Ryan should excel in this matchup. 

Freddy Peralta has picked up where he left off last season. Through three starts, Peralta has thrown 17.2 innings with 26 strikeouts and a 36.4% K-BB. He takes on a Cardinals team who is striking out 24.2% of the time versus RHP and leads to his best-of-the-day 2.6 strikeout rating. 

Brayan Bello has been consistent this season, throwing at least five innings in all four starts and allowing two runs or less in three of them. Bello has never been a crazy strikeout pitcher, but he may collect his fair share today versus a Pirates team striking out 22.9% of the time versus RHP. Bello has neutral ratings for the day but seems to deserves a little more love. 

Spencer Turnbull has been great in his first three starts, allowing three earned runs over 15 innings with 16 strikeouts. Turnbull has added a sweeper, which has helped him register an 18% K-BB, though a mediocre 9.4% SwK and 23% H% point to some early-season overachievement. On paper, Turnbull has a great matchup today versus a White Sox squad hitting .202 with a 73 wRC+ vs. RHP, but Turnbull’s overall rating (-0.5) isn't convinced.  

 

Quick Pitches:

  • Blake Snell was shelled in his last start versus the Rays, where he allowed seven earned runs over four pitched innings. Snell is still getting back to regular game shape, and he’ll need to figure it out quickly in a matchup versus a good DBacks lineup. 
  • Jordan Montgomery is set to make his first start of the season after signing at the end of spring with the DBacks. Montgomery allowed nine earned runs over 7.2 innings in AAA, so Montgomery may not be back to his normal self for his debut tonight. 
  • Justin Verlander is set to make his season debut with the Astros today as they take on the Nats in Washington. It’s a great matchup on paper, but Verlander was not sharp in his two rehab starts, allowing 11 earned runs over seven innings pitched. 
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed eight earned runs in two starts versus the Padres and zero earned runs in his other two starts. Today, he takes on a Mets offense, and he’ll look to get back to his shutdown ways. 
  • Garrett Crochet finally looked human in his last start. He allowed five earned runs over 4.2 innings versus the Reds but struck out ten. Today, he takes on a Phillies team that strikes out 23.2% of the time, compared to LHP, which has a .103 ISO. 
  • Tyler Alexander has allowed 11 earned runs over his first three outings over 15.1 innings. He does have 12 strikeouts, which may be tough to come by, versus a Yankees team that is striking out 21.1% of the time versus LHP to start the season. 

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