ROTISSERIE: Dealing with 2023's uncertainty

In economics, we delineate between risk and uncertainty. Risk is a known quantity, like the odds of the dealer busting when showing a six in blackjack (admittedly not a major question in economics). Risk can be modeled, like the well-established risk profile for Tommy John surgery. When you know the risks, you can value them and incorporate them into your strategy.

Uncertainty is a different animal. With uncertainty, we’re dealing with true unknowns. We can make educated projections, but we can’t accurately project. For example, we don’t know exactly how the new shift rules will affect hitters.

What can we do with all this?

The first thing is to try to estimate, based on what we know, the effects on game outcomes. While we won’t really...


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