(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Semien, Bradish, Taveras, Paxton, R. Urías

Facts & Flukes

Corbin Young

Jun 15 2023 12:05am

(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Semien, Bradish, Taveras, Paxton, R. Urías

Corbin Young

Jun 15 2023

Semien continues the elite production at an advanced age ... Through 306 plate appearances, Marcus Semien (2B, TEX) has nine home runs, seven stolen bases, 108 runs plus RBI, and a .288 BA. That's translating into a third consecutive $30 season, but what do Semien's skills indicate?

Year   PA  HR/xHR  OBP  BA/xBA   bb%  ct%  Brl%  HctX   PX/xPX    G/L/F  HR/F  SB
====  ===  ======  === ========= ===  ===  ====  ====  =======  ======== ====  ==
2018  703   15/17  318 .255/.248   9   79    5     95   83/ 90  39/23/38   8%  14 
2019  747   33/33  369 .285/.290  12   84    9    123  114/105  41/20/39  15%  10
2020  236    7/ 7  305 .223/.225  11   76    5     86   85/111  33/20/47   9%   4
2021  724   45/32  334 .265/.272   9   78   10    114  150/145  31/21/48  18%  15
2022  724   26/21  304 .248/.249   7   82    7    106  105/115  34/19/47  10%  25
2023  306   9/N/A  353 .288/.271   9   83    6    125  107/134  36/20/43   9%   7

Semien's skills look consistent compared to past years and he's on pace to post another elite season:

Semien typically rocked a high flyball batted ball profile, which led to a lower h%. However, Semien's FB% dipped closer to the career average in 2023, with the added groundballs and h% boosting the actual BA.
Semien is making more contact, similar to 2022, yet 4-5 points higher than the career average. He continued the steady and patient approach while pulling the ball 48.7% of the time. Semien consistently used a pull-heavy approach to tap into the power skills, which never popped off the page.
His barrel rates dropped slightly from the career norms, with the second-best xPX of his career. That indicates Semien has hit the ball harder, but it's not occurring at the ideal launch angle for more barrels. When paired with the Spd, Semien has converted a healthy rate of stolen bases, but 2022 seems like an outlier in stolen base opportunities. So, temper expectations on 20+ stolen bases, though he could push 20 based on the projections.

From a counting stats perspective, Semien is on pace to reach career bests in runs plus RBI, with a balanced home run and stolen base total. Add in the batting average ceiling, and it's no surprise to find another $30 season for him in 2023. The Rangers rank second in wRC+ behind the Rays, and it's a scary group of hitters to face, especially with Semien atop the lineup. Semien's skills suggest he's a legitimate hitter, with a peak outcome of 25/20 with one of his best batting averages as an elite accumulator.

Bradish has made gradual improvements in 2023 ... Kyle Bradish (RHP, BAL) boasts a 4.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 22.5% K%, and 7% BB% in 53 innings. The ratios slightly improved from 2022, with a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but have his skills taken a step forward?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  BB%   K%  K-BB%   SwK   GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  HR/F 
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  =====  =====  ========  =====  ====
2021^ 101  4.20   N/A  11%  21%   11%    N/A     N/A     33/74   N/A
2022  118  4.90  4.00   8%  22%   13%   10.4%  46/21/33  32/68   15%
2023   53  4.25  4.05   7%  22%   15%   11.3%  42/23/34  34/70    9%

^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs

It's a small step forward in the skills, but there's a mix of luck factors too:

Most of Bradish's luck factors look similar (H% and S%), except for the HR/F. After higher home run rates against the cutter (19.6%) and slider (15.6%) in 2022, the cut fastball's HR/F jumped to 30%, with zero home runs via the slider.
Bradish's K-BB% slightly improved, given his lower walk rate. When examining his ball rate, it went from 38.7% in 2022 to 36.1% in 2023. It's not a large gap, but we like the ball rate aligning with the lower walk rate.
He lowered the four-seamer usage (44.5% to 30.2%) against both sides of the plate, but the results look terrible. Bradish's four-seamer allowed a .674 SLG and .486 wOBA in 2023 versus a .539 SLG and .412 wOBA in 2022. Unsurprisingly, the results ballooned against right and left-handed hitters, so it's not a positive pitch mix change.
With the lower four-seamers thrown, he increased the curveball (12.9% to 17.4%) and sinker (4.4% to 15.8%) usage. Bradish uses the sinker as his second-most used offering against right-handed hitters, with again worse results (.443 wOBA in 2023 versus .308 wOBA in 2022). Meanwhile, Bradish increased the curve usage against lefties, eliciting more swings and misses. His slider SwK went from 15.8% to 19.3%, and the curveball SwK improved from 9% to 14.7%. He'll need to rely on the breakers to find success, and he thrives against right-handed hitters but needs help against lefties.

In the preseason, Bradish looked like a one-pitch pitcher, with the slider being his most-effective offering. However, the curveball is a legitimate breaking ball to pair with his slider. Keep an eye on the sinker and changeup to give him a reliable option against lefties. While Bradish's skills don't scream buy, he made slight adjustments in skills and pitch mixes, giving us a bit more confidence.

Taveras is earning regular playing time ... In 199 plate appearances, Leody Taveras (OF, TEX) has five home runs and six stolen bases, with a .302 batting average. Taveras looks to earn a career-best in value, but let's dive into his skills.

Year   PA   BA/xBA    HR/xHR  bb%  ct%  HctX  GB/LD/FB  PX/xPX   HR/F   SB/Spd/SBO
====  ===  =========  ======  ===  ===  ====  ========  =======  ====  ==========
2020  134  .227/.227    4/4    10   64    91   38/29/31 113/110   17%   8/153/27%
2021  185  .161/.204    3/3     5   66    91   52/16/32   74/95    9%  10/131/42%
2022  341  .261/.221    5/5     6   72    94   42/22/36   76/85    6%  11/135/20%
2023  199  .302/.273   5/NA     9   78   122   45/23/32  100/84   11%   6/126/17%

The skills don't pop off the page, but he taps into the power and speed to boost his fantasy value:

His improved actual batting average likely occurred via a higher ct%, with his career-best xBA. Since Taveras doesn't boast above-average contact quality, his xBA probably will sit lower than his actual BA, but it's still a solid xBA.
Taveras gradually improved his ct% to a career-best, with improved plate discipline and lowered chase rate. The launch angle remains an issue, limiting the home run upside. That's especially so when we consider the below-average xPX and barrel rates. Taveras has hit the ball harder, but it doesn't occur when he elevates it, evidenced by the 91.6 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 186) similar to his 90.4 mph (No. 238) in 2022.
He is an athletic outfielder with the speed and skills to boast high stolen base totals, but the conversion rate concern us. Taveras' stolen base opportunities remained high, and the Rangers rank fourth in stolen base opportunities. That suggests the team loves to run, and Taveras shows the skills to take advantage, so hopefully, he improves the conversion rate.

His defensive ability should keep him in the lineup, and there's a good chance he accumulates his way to a career-best season in counting stats and batting average. Taveras showed positive plate discipline changes with harder contact, but we would have more confidence in his home run upside if the xPX and barrel rates aligned. If Taveras tapped into league-average power skills, we could see a peak outcome of 12-15 HR and 18-20 stolen bases. His skills remained steady, with a slight bump in plate discipline, helping the batting average floor.

Injuries derailed and remained a part of Paxton's profile in recent years ... But James Paxton (LHP, BOS) came out firing to begin 2023 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 33.1% K%, and 7.5% BB% in 32 innings. After only pitching 20 innings in 2020, let's examine Paxton's skills to see how they align with the career averages.

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  BB%   K%  K-BB%   SwK   GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  HR/F  Vel
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  =====  =====  ========  =====  ====  ===
2017  136  2.98  3.38   7%  28%   22%   12.8%  45/22/33  31/74    8%  95.4
2018  160  3.76  3.22   7%  32%   26%   14.8%  40/19/41  31/71   14%  95.4
2019  151  3.82  4.08   9%  29%   21%   14.7%  38/19/43  33/76   14%  95.5
2020   20  6.64  4.45   8%  29%   21%   14.3%  32/18/50  38/58   14%  92.1
2021    1  6.75  0.00  20%  40%   20%   12.5%   50/50/0    0/0    0%  94.1
2023   32  3.09  3.36   8%  33%   26%   15.4%  33/25/42  33/79   12%  95.9

Paxton's skills took a step forward in the small 2023 sample:

When a pitcher returns from a long layoff, velocity is one of the first items to examine. Paxton's fastball velocity aligns with the career average, which is a positive note in his favor. His xERA is close to his actual ERA, which suggests there shouldn't be significant ratio regression incoming with his strikeout skills.
Paxton typically boasted strong strikeout skills, and the underlying metrics support it. His SwK is a career-best in the early 2023 sample, with peak seasons around 14%. Paxton's most-used pitches have elicited a quality SwK, with the slider (17.3%) and changeup (24.2%) leading the arsenal. Baseball Savant labels his slider as a cutter and has performed well against right-handed hitters with a .130 wOBA, with the curveball also being effective (.167 wOBA versus LHH).
His four-seamer jumped in SwK to 13.9% compared to a career SwK of 9.1%. Most notably, Paxton has thrown the four-seamer more in the zone (63.9%), up over three points from the career zone rate. With more four-seamers in the strike zone, hitters made less contact (73.5% in 2023 versus 81.5% in his career).
The four-seamer's movement profile looks similar to his peak seasons (2017-2019), so what's causing the adding swings and misses? Paxton has generated tons of extension on multiple pitches, with 6.7 on the four-seamer in 2023. From 2017 to 2019, Paxton sat around 6.2 to 6.4 feet of extension. That's contributing to his perceived velocity (96.6 mph) sitting over 0.5 mph faster than his actual. Meanwhile, Paxton's perceived (95.3 mph) and actual velocity (95.4 mph) matched each other with an average of 6.3 feet of extension (2017-2019). Hitters still do damage against the four-seamer, but the extension for tall pitchers like Paxton has been an effective change in 2023.

Health is a concern for Paxton. However, his strikeout skills thankfully returned with a small step forward. Paxton possesses two non-fastballs in the cutter and curveball that induces swings and misses while performing effectively against right-handed hitters. We'll see if Paxton's added extension sticks around, as it's helping boost the four-seamer's SwK while throwing more of them in the strike zone. Believe in Paxton's strikeout skills as long as he's healthy.

Urías has been filling in a bench role for Baltimore ... Ramón Urías (2B/3B, BAL) has compiled semi-regular playing time as a short-side platoon hitter throughout the season. In 152 plate appearances, Urías has two home runs, three stolen bases, 37 runs plus RBI, and a .272 batting average. Do Urías' skills indicate deep-league viability, or is the early production a mirage?

Year   PA   BA    xBA  HR  bb%/ct% HctX  GB/LD/FB   PX/xPX  HR/F Brl%  HH%
====  ===  ====  ====  ==  ======= ====  ========  =======  ==== ====  ===
2018^ 343  .254   N/A   9    5/79   N/A     N/A    108/N/A   N/A  N/A  N/A
2019^ 383  .223   N/A   7    9/74   N/A     N/A     99/N/A   N/A  N/A  N/A
2020   27  .360  .298   1    7/76   178  47/32/21  121/144   25%   5%  47%
2021  296  .279  .242   7    9/71   103  50/24/26   89/ 89   15%  10%  43%
2022  445  .248  .246  16    7/76   112  47/18/35  104/114   15%  10%  47%
2023  152  .272  .248   2    7/71   107  52/20/28   104/87    7%  10%  44%
^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs

It's a mixed bag of average to below-average skills:

Urías' h% bounced back in 2023 after a slight dip in 2022. His xBA suggests a lower batting average, likely due to the drop in contact rate and power. His ct% sits two points lower than his career average, with some potential luck factor regression in the HR/F if his power skills improve. Urías' HR/F sits seven points lower than his career average.
Urías' xPX sits below his actual output. However, it typically hovers closer toward average and aligns with his PX. His barrel rate isn't far off from his career norms. Unfortunately, the once juicy 94 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 73) in 2022 fell to 91.8 mph (No. 259) in 2023. That aligns with the slightly lower barrel rate and the xPX.
It's probably insignificant, but the higher stolen base opportunities at 12%, eight points above his career SBO% stood out. It seems like noise since the Orioles rank toward the bottom in stolen base chances, plus Urías hardly attempted any swipes.

In the past, Urías has been an intriguing deep-league option with dual eligibility. Unfortunately, with Gunnar Henderson heating up and Adam Frazier holding it down, Urías' playing time fell. As a hitter who doesn't chase but made league-average contact in the past, it's a curious profile. With modest power skills, lack of playing time, and hardly any stolen bases, the profile hardly entices us. Urías seems more like an accumulator that doesn't have the opportunity.