Adames moves to SF … Willy Adames (SS, SF) parlayed a strong 2024 campaign with the Brewers into a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Giants. Can he keep it rolling in 2025?
Year | PA | HR/SB | BA/xBA | bb%/ct% | GB/LD/FB | h% | HctX | PX/xPX | Brl% | HR/F | Spd/SBO/SB% |
2021 | 554 | 24/5 | .256/.245 | 10/68 | 36/22/41 | 32 | 103 | 139/128 | 11% | 17% | 106/7%/55% |
2022 | 617 | 31/8 | .238/.247 | 8/70 | 34/20/46 | 28 | 104 | 150/165 | 13% | 16% | 93/9%/72% |
2023 | 636 | 24/5 | .217/.235 | 11/70 | 36/19/45 | 26 | 103 | 120/135 | 12% | 13% | 88/5%/62% |
2024 | 688 | 32/21 | .251/.242 | 11/71 | 31/18/49 | 29 | 99 | 139/142 | 12% | 14% | 84/15%/84% |
There is reason for a touch of skepticism:
The 2024 season will likely go down as the best of Adames’s career. While he owns a strong collection of skills, a full repeat is unlikely. The 29-year-old figures to see slight pullback in HR due to the new home stadium and we would bet against another 21 SB, as SB% and SBO seem ripe for regression.
Is Naylor’s power surge legit? … Josh Naylor (1B, ARI) managed to avoid the injured list for the first time, as he posted career-highs with 31 HR and 632 PA. He was then traded from the Guardians to the Diamondbacks in December. What can we expect in 2025?
Year | PA | HR/xHR | BA/xBA | bb%/ct% | GB/LD/FB | h% | HctX | PX/xPX | Brl% | HR/F | SB | Spd/SBO/SB% |
2021 | 249 | 7/7 | .253/.254 | 6/80 | 49/18/31 | 28 | 92 | 85/84 | 7% | 11% | 1 | 86/1%/100% |
2022 | 498 | 20/18 | .256/.278 | 8/82 | 48/17/33 | 27 | 126 | 119/88 | 9% | 15% | 6 | 74/6%/85% |
2023 | 495 | 17/17 | .307/.283 | 8/84 | 42/20/36 | 33 | 115 | 101/94 | 8% | 11% | 10 | 78/10%/76% |
2024 | 632 | 31/24 | .243/.277 | 10/81 | 46/17/36 | 24 | 109 | 121/95 | 8% | 18% | 6 | 71/5%/75% |
The skills suggest fewer HR and a higher BA:
Naylor carries a “C” health grade in the 2025 Baseball Forecaster and prior to 2024 he had never exceeded 500 PA in a single season, so we can’t assume another 600+ PA season. While the HR tally is likely to recede toward 20, his BA is a good bet to move closer to his lifetime .262 mark. Be careful not to overbid.
Could Lopez see save chances? … Jorge López (RHP, WAS) was released by the Mets in early June, but pitched much better as a member of the Cubs, sporting a 2.03 ERA and 29% K% in 27 IP. That earned him a one-year, $3 million contract with the Nationals. What was behind the 2H surge?
Year | IP | ERA/xERA | BB%/K% | xBB% | SwK | GB/LD/FB | H%/S% | HR/F | Vel | BPX |
2022 | 71 | 2.54/3.39 | 10%/24% | 6% | 11.4% | 57/16/25 | 28/80 | 8% | 97.6 | 109 |
2023 | 59 | 5.95/4.55 | 8%/18% | 7% | 10.1% | 47/21/29 | 35/64 | 21% | 96.9 | 80 |
2024 | 53 | 2.89/3.81 | 8%/23% | 6% | 9.6% | 50/12/35 | 31/81 | 11% | 95.6 | 108 |
2H-24 | 24 | 2.22/2.86 | 8%/31% | 4% | 12.5% | 57/8/32 | 32/87 | 15% | 96.3 | 164 |
It was a small sample, but the late-season skills were as good as he’s ever displayed:
In addition to throwing more strikes in the 2H, Lopez also ramped up usage of his best two swing-and-miss offerings over the final two months (slider: 16% SwK%; change-up: 17% SwK%). Though it was a small sample, the gains are intriguing, particularly when accompanied by xBB% and GB%. Even if the 31-year-old can’t fully replicate that 2H line, it’s not hard to envision him working his way into the closer role and potentially significant number of save chances.
Murphy looks to rebound … After suffering an oblique strain on Opening Day 2024, Sean Murphy (C, ATL) didn’t return to action until May 27, and finished the year with a putrid .193 BA and 10 HR in 264 PA. Could he be undervalued in 2025?
Year | PA | HR/xHR | BA/xBA | bb%/ct% | GB/LD/FB | h% | HctX | PX/xPX | HR/F | Brl% |
2021 | 448 | 17/19 | .216/.237 | 9/71 | 39/20/41 | 26 | 99 | 120/115 | 15% | 11% |
2022 | 611 | 18/23 | .250/.260 | 9/77 | 42/20/38 | 29 | 108 | 118/104 | 11% | 11% |
2023 | 438 | 21/24 | .251/.265 | 11/74 | 41/21/38 | 29 | 116 | 135/124 | 20% | 16% |
2024 | 264 | 10/12 | .193/.211 | 10/71 | 53/12/33 | 22 | 92 | 96/90 | 17% | 10% |
Quite possibly:
Murphy clearly suffered through a disappointing 2024, but it’s fair to assume injury played a part in the struggles. It’s also worth noting that the Braves will have a new set of eyes working with him, as the team hired Tim Hyers as hitting coach in late October. Given Murphy’s track record, he’s a good bounce back candidate, and he is expected to see a heavy workload in 2025, so there is profit potential near his current 232 ADP.
Should Soroka be on your radar? … Injuries have plagued Michael Soroka (RHP, WAS) throughout his career, as he has spent a whopping 594 days on the IL since making his MLB debut in 2018, including a two-month absence (shoulder strain) in the second half of 2024. However, after struggling as a starter through nine starts, he moved to the bullpen where he thrived to the tune of a 2.75 ERA and 39% K% in 36 IP. How are things under the hood?
Year | IP | ERA/xERA | BB%/K% | xBB% | SwK | GB/LD/FB | H%/S% | HR/F | Vel | BPX |
2019 | 174 | 2.68/3.89 | 5%/20% | 7% | 10.7% | 50/22/24 | 30/78 | 11% | 92.5 | 116 |
2020 | 13 | 3.95/4.78 | 12%/14% | 9% | 9.7% | 60/24/14 | 26/66 | 0% | 92.1 | 9 |
2021 | Did not pitch (Recovery from torn right Achilles) | |||||||||
2022 | Did not pitch (Torn right Achilles) | |||||||||
2023 | 32 | 6.40/4.57 | 8%20% | 9% | 10.7% | 44/20/34 | 36/64 | 26% | 93.0 | 91 |
2024 | 79 | 4.74/4.52 | 12%/24% | 11% | 10.0% | 39/16/41 | 30/70 | 14% | 93.1 | 62 |
2H24 | 12 | 2.31/3.04 | 8%/41% | 9% | 14.3% | 21/17/56 | 34/81 | 7% | 93.2 | 188 |
The role change sparked life into a stale and middling skill set:
Soroka, in addition to the pitch mix changes and mechanical tweaks, has spoken about how the move to the bullpen also helped him reset his approach to have more of an attacking mindset. The 27-year-old inked a one-year, $9 million contract with the Nationals in December and is expected to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. It will be interesting to see how much of the 2024 gains from the bullpen will stick in a starting role, but he showed last year that this new version of himself can provide value as a reliever. Even with the glaring durability concerns, he’s an intriguing end-gamer (733 ADP).