Adames, Naylor, J. Lopez, Murphy, Soroka

Adames moves to SF … Willy Adames (SS, SF) parlayed a strong 2024 campaign with the Brewers into a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Giants. Can he keep it rolling in 2025?

YearPAHR/SBBA/xBAbb%/ct%GB/LD/FBh%HctXPX/xPXBrl%HR/FSpd/SBO/SB%
202155424/5.256/.24510/6836/22/4132103139/12811%17%106/7%/55%
202261731/8.238/.2478/7034/20/4628104150/16513%16%93/9%/72%
202363624/5.217/.23511/7036/19/4526103120/13512%13%88/5%/62%
202468832/21.251/.24211/7131/18/492999139/14212%14%84/15%/84%

There is reason for a touch of skepticism:

  • The HR output was supported by the underlying metrics. However, the move from hitter-friendly Milwaukee to pitcher-friendly San Francisco won’t help his HR total (American Family Field: +7% RHB HR; Oracle Park: -23% RHB HR). 
  • Steady plate skills and xBA history set the BA baseline (lifetime .244 xBA).
  • The SB spike came seemingly out of nowhere. It was his first SB% better than 72% and his first full season double-digit SBO. 

The 2024 season will likely go down as the best of Adames’s career. While he owns a strong collection of skills, a full repeat is unlikely. The 29-year-old figures to see slight pullback in HR due to the new home stadium and we would bet against another 21 SB, as SB% and SBO seem ripe for regression. 

 

Is Naylor’s power surge legit? … Josh Naylor (1B, ARI) managed to avoid the injured list for the first time, as he posted career-highs with 31 HR and 632 PA. He was then traded from the Guardians to the Diamondbacks in December. What can we expect in 2025?

YearPAHR/xHRBA/xBAbb%/ct%GB/LD/FBh%HctXPX/xPXBrl%HR/FSBSpd/SBO/SB%
20212497/7.253/.2546/8049/18/31289285/847%11%186/1%/100%
202249820/18.256/.2788/8248/17/3327126119/889%15%674/6%/85%
202349517/17.307/.2838/8442/20/3633115101/948%11%1078/10%/76%
202463231/24.243/.27710/8146/17/3624109121/958%18%671/5%/75%

The skills suggest fewer HR and a higher BA:

  • Naylor’s xPX and xHR cast doubt on the HR spike. The move from Cleveland to Arizona could also negatively impact his HR output (Progressive Field: neutral LHB HR; Chase Field: -21% LHB HR).
  • The plate skills are in fine shape, but a low h% torpedoed BA, as xBA attests.
  • Given his 7th percentile sprint speed, SBO, and SB% trend, don’t count on a return to double-digit SB. 

Naylor carries a “C” health grade in the 2025 Baseball Forecaster and prior to 2024 he had never exceeded 500 PA in a single season, so we can’t assume another 600+ PA season. While the HR tally is likely to recede toward 20, his BA is a good bet to move closer to his lifetime .262 mark. Be careful not to overbid. 

 

Could Lopez see save chances? … Jorge López (RHP, WAS) was released by the Mets in early June, but pitched much better as a member of the Cubs, sporting a 2.03 ERA and 29% K% in 27 IP. That earned him a one-year, $3 million contract with the Nationals. What was behind the 2H surge?

YearIPERA/xERABB%/K%xBB%SwKGB/LD/FBH%/S%HR/FVelBPX
2022712.54/3.3910%/24%6%11.4%57/16/2528/808%97.6109
2023595.95/4.558%/18%7%10.1%47/21/2935/6421%96.980
2024532.89/3.818%/23%6%9.6%50/12/3531/8111%95.6108
2H-24242.22/2.868%/31%4%12.5%57/8/3232/8715%96.3164

It was a small sample, but the late-season skills were as good as he’s ever displayed:

  • The 2H K% and SwK% were higher than anything he has ever done over a full MLB season. That was driven by a 43% K% and 17% SwK% in 13 IP combined in Aug-Sep. While the 2H SwK% doesn't fully support K%, it does come with a 27% xK%, which would be a career high.
  • A renewed focus on pounding the strike zone in the second half (31% Ball%) hints at additional BB% upside.
  • After some GB% slippage in the 1H, he restored a GB% lean in the 2H.
  • His velocity was down two mph in the 1H, but saw a partial rebound in the 2H.

In addition to throwing more strikes in the 2H, Lopez also ramped up usage of his best two swing-and-miss offerings over the final two months (slider: 16% SwK%; change-up: 17% SwK%). Though it was a small sample, the gains are intriguing, particularly when accompanied by xBB% and GB%. Even if the 31-year-old can’t fully replicate that 2H line, it’s not hard to envision him working his way into the closer role and potentially significant number of save chances. 

 

Murphy looks to rebound … After suffering an oblique strain on Opening Day 2024, Sean Murphy (C, ATL) didn’t return to action until May 27, and finished the year with a putrid .193 BA and 10 HR in 264 PA. Could he be undervalued in 2025?

YearPAHR/xHRBA/xBAbb%/ct%GB/LD/FBh%HctXPX/xPXHR/FBrl%
202144817/19.216/.2379/7139/20/412699120/11515%11%
202261118/23.250/.2609/7742/20/3829108118/10411%11%
202343821/24.251/.26511/7441/21/3829116135/12420%16%
202426410/12.193/.21110/7153/12/33229296/9017%10%

Quite possibly:

  • Plate skills were pretty much in line with 2023 and lifetime marks (73% ct%, 10% bb%). A career-low h% contributed to the horrid BA.
  • His launch angle got all out of whack, as he pounded balls into the ground like never before (lifetime 42%/19%/37% GB/LD/FB in 1,961 PA). 
  • Murphy’s Brl% crashed from 2023, but remained a couple ticks above the MLB average of 7%. While the 2023 Brl% is the outlier, it’s reasonable to believe he can at least get back to the 11% Brl% he owned in 2021-22.

Murphy clearly suffered through a disappointing 2024, but it’s fair to assume injury played a part in the struggles. It’s also worth noting that the Braves will have a new set of eyes working with him, as the team hired Tim Hyers as hitting coach in late October. Given Murphy’s track record, he’s a good bounce back candidate, and he is expected to see a heavy workload in 2025, so there is profit potential near his current 232 ADP.

 

Should Soroka be on your radar? … Injuries have plagued Michael Soroka (RHP, WAS) throughout his career, as he has spent a whopping 594 days on the IL since making his MLB debut in 2018, including a two-month absence (shoulder strain) in the second half of 2024. However, after struggling as a starter through nine starts, he moved to the bullpen where he thrived to the tune of a 2.75 ERA and 39% K% in 36 IP. How are things under the hood?

YearIPERA/xERABB%/K%xBB%SwKGB/LD/FBH%/S%HR/FVelBPX
20191742.68/3.895%/20%7%10.7%50/22/2430/7811%92.5116
2020133.95/4.7812%/14%9%9.7%60/24/1426/660%92.19
2021Did not pitch (Recovery from torn right Achilles)
2022Did not pitch (Torn right Achilles)
2023326.40/4.578%20%9%10.7%44/20/3436/6426%93.091
2024794.74/4.5212%/24%11%10.0%39/16/4130/7014%93.162
2H24122.31/3.048%/41%9%14.3%21/17/5634/817%93.2188

The role change sparked life into a stale and middling skill set:

  • Soroka has never been one to miss bats at a high rate, but his K% and SwK% soared in the relief role, as he began to rely heavily on his four-seam fastball and slider (17% SwK%) with usage rates of 45% and 40%, respectively, at the expense of the sinker and change-up. 
  • It was obviously a tiny sample, but his velocity spiked to a career-high 94.6 mph in 7 IP in September.
  • His BB% was far worse than MLB average (8%), but xBB% hints at better days. 
  • Soroka’s GB% has fallen sharply since returning from his second torn Achilles suffered in June 2021. That’s largely due to declining sinker usage and a reduction in GB% on his sinker (2019 sinker usage/GB%: 45%/63%; 2024 sinker usage/GB%: 21%/41%). 

Soroka, in addition to the pitch mix changes and mechanical tweaks, has spoken about how the move to the bullpen also helped him reset his approach to have more of an attacking mindset. The 27-year-old inked a one-year, $9 million contract with the Nationals in December and is expected to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. It will be interesting to see how much of the 2024 gains from the bullpen will stick in a starting role, but he showed last year that this new version of himself can provide value as a reliever. Even with the glaring durability concerns, he’s an intriguing end-gamer (733 ADP). 

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