RESEARCH: The Skill to Steal and the WILL to Steal

Tommy Pham beats the tag.

Stolen bases are an unusual fantasy baseball statistic. Every other statistic that we use — even saves — is largely a reflection of some combination of skill, context, and luck. Stolen bases, of course, is a reflection of those same three factors, too. But there's a fourth factor that may be unique to stolen bases, something even more fundamental to statistical output than any other factor for any other category: the WILL to steal a base. In theory, players who reach base safely (with no runner ahead of them, anyway) can literally attempt to steal a base EVERY TIME if they wanted to! There is no rule to stop them. Yes, they must reach base safely first, but once they do they can try to steal second, steal...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From R&A Studies

Outmaneuver your competitors by replacing watered-down ADP with detailed draft-level analytics for 12-team and 15-team mixed leagues
Mar 22 2024 12:55pm
Updating xSB in light of recent MLB rule changes.
Feb 9 2024 3:02am
The pitching landscape has shifted yet again, and our Pure Quality Start metric undergoes a minor shift to level-set the results.
Dec 20 2023 10:10am
2023 draft-level analytics from dozens of individual NFBC drafts to complete your last-mile preparation
Mar 26 2023 1:00pm
Unveiling six new eye-opening playing time metrics to help fantasy managers accumulate more "volume" by first understanding its sources.
Feb 16 2023 1:07am

Tools