SPECULATOR: Snap judgments, 2023

Some might say it's too early, but pitchers can change fast and this is the time to pounce.

By looking at per-pitch metrics like fastball velocity and swinging-strike rate (both available on Playerlink pages as Vel and SwK, respectively), we can pick up on early signs of a breakout… or of looming disaster.

Last week's exercise used Quality of Batted Ball (QBaB) data to make some snap hitter judgments; we'll go back to that well with pitchers for 2023, asking ourselves the following question:

If this early performance is real, what might it look like over a full season?


Higher velocity, more whiffs
Pitchers with three starts and a 1% jump in swinging-strike rate + fastball velocity gains

                      FBVel       ...


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