DAILY MATCHUPS: Kyle Wright looks to keep rolling

Daily Matchups

Ray Murphy

Apr 22 2022 8:00am

DAILY MATCHUPS: Kyle Wright looks to keep rolling

Ray Murphy

Apr 22 2022

Quickstart Guide on the above table:

“Rating” is the overall score for today’s starting pitchers matchup. K / ERA / WHIP / Wins are the individual components that go into the composite “Rating”.
Each of those five columns are sortable and set roughly to a 3.0 (positive) to -3.0 (negative) scale.
Best Starts scores are 0.5 and above, and display in green type
Judgement Call scores run from 0.4 to -0.4 and display in black type
Weak Starts scores are -0.5 and below, and display in red type
Player name links to go to an individual pitcher’s PlayerLink page for YTD stats, metrics and deeper analysis
This DAILY MATCHUPS page will be live on the site each day around 9am ET.

Other links/details:

A how-to-use article—which includes additional information on our 2022 format update—can be found here.
The full explanation behind the rating system (with all the nitty-gritty math) can be found in this 2017 Research article by Arik Florimonte.
You can always access scores for future games at our PITCHER MATCHUPS TOOL page (from Teams/Today’s SP on the top menu). There, you can filter the list by starting pitchers by today, tomorrow, or over the next eight days, as well as by AL-only and NL-only groups. In addition this is where all charts are available in a downloadable, spreadsheet-friendly format for further analysis.
For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: A full 15-game slate, with PIT@CHC the only afternoon affair. STL@CIN is an early-evening start (6:40pm ET), meaning most of your DFS contests will feature 13-game evening slates. Watch for potential weather issues in Detroit and Chicago.

Notable Starts:

Kyle Wright has dazzled in his first two starts: 2 ER, 1 BB/15 K over 11 IP. The sub-indicators that normalize most quickly are supportive, too: Vel is up about 1.5 MPH from 2021, SwK has jumped by nearly 50%, and FpK is also way up. Facing the Marlins in Atlanta today is a very appealing spot, though his Win rating is dinged by virtue of having to oppose Trevor Rogers.

Antonio Senzatela's first two starts produced some of the more bizarre lines we've seen in the early season: 3.1-9-1-1-0 against the Dodgers, then 5-7-1-0-2 against the Cubs at home. He makes his sea-level debut today in Detroit. Don't expect more strikeouts, which means his fortunes will continue to rest in the hands of the BABIP gods.

Steven Matz was surprisingly knocked around by the Pirates in his first start as a Cardinal, but then bounced back with a much better second start in Milwaukee. One oddity worth tracking: his value proposition in St. Louis seemed to center around bringing his groundball-generating ways to a team with five 2021 Gold Glovers working behind him, but thus far in 2022, his groundball rate has been way down (and LD% has been up, which is never good). SwK is up, which certainly helps, but that's not how you expect Matz to make a living. Something to watch against the Reds today.

Ranger Suárez is a good example of how are Matchup Scores are still putting a good amount of weight on projected data rather than YTD results. Suarez draws a decent 0.8 rating at home vs. Milwaukee, even though his K% and SwK% have both been way off prior levels in his first two starts. Velocity is off too, but not as dramatically, and an elite GB% is trying to paper over all of these issues... except leaning on your defense is a poor plan when you pitch for the Phillies. This may be a case where it's wise to let Suarez show you something from your bench before you put your faith in him again.

Hunter Greene has turned all kinds of heads in two starts: 2 BB/13 K in 10.3 IP, 28 swinging strikes along the way, and perhaps most incredibly, an average fastball velocity of 100.0 MPH. Greene's early-career stretch of stiff tests isn't abating yet: After facing the defending champion Braves and the stacked Dodgers, today Greene faces a Cardinals lineup that has been top-5 in MLB in Runs over the season's first two weeks.

Tarik Skubal got beat up by the White Sox in his first start, but came back strong in Kansas City last time out: 5.3 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB/7 K, with 12 SwK, 16 of 22 FpK, and 11 GB out of 15 balls in play. That's what we call "checking all the boxes." A home start against the Rockies (always appealing when they are first coming down to sea level from Coors, as they are today) seems like a good spot for Skubal to build some positive momentum.

Michael Kopech looks nearly ready to finally spread his wings and fly as a starting pitcher. He fired 5 IP (75 pitches) in his last outing, a threshold he reached only once last season. Predictably, his velocity is down nearly 2 MPH from last year, when he was primarily working in short bursts as a reliever. But the new velocity level does track well with his 2018 pre-Tommy John velocity, which is a promising sign. Now we need to see if he can find his command, especially in a "big" April divisional road game in Minnesota.

In terms of results, Julo Urías calmed a lot of doubters with a strong second start vs. the Reds, following a season-opening meltdown in Coors Field. Under the hood, though, some questions remain: his velocity remains down about 2 MPH from 2021, and his SwK was down substantially in both starts. Tough to pay up for him today in San Diego based on those reduced sub-indicators.

Quick Pitches:

Ross Stripling managed to last 4 IP in his last outing, thanks to peak efficiency (62 pitches). Even with his pitch count bumped a bit today, he'll need similar effectiveness to reach 5 IP.
Michael Wacha has two starts under his belt, both of the "70-something pitches, reach the fifth inning and be ready with a quick hook" variety. Expect the same today, especially with Garrett Whitlock rested and ready to eat multiple innings if the Red Sox have a lead mid-game.
Zac Gallen managed four scoreless IP on just 66 pitches in his first start. He draws a rematch with that opponent today (NYM), this time in Arizona. He apparently came out of that first start with a clean bill of health, but five-and-fly probably remains his best-case scenario for this outing.