[free] Embrace volatility. That’s the mantra for Xtreme Regression Drafting (XRD), as espoused by Ron Shandler in the 2012 Forecaster and in an essay from earlier this year. As Ron points out, “regression and gravity are the two strongest forces known to man.” In theory, that’s straightforward—but how hard is it to do in practice?

In the “not exactly shocking news” category, NYY manager Joe Girardi has declared that CC Sabathia (LHP, NYY) will be his Opening Day starter. In an effort to stay strong throughout the year, Sabathia came into camp with a bit less weight that he was carrying last season.

It looks like Carl Crawford (OF, BOS) will have to wait a bit to prove that his first season in Boston was a fluke. After arthroscopic wrist surgery in January, he’s likely to miss the first few weeks of the season. It's really no mystery why Crawford's 2011 performance dropped off.

2011 was a lost year for Joe Mauer (C, MIN). He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee in the offseason, and then missed two months of the first half with leg weakness. Signs are good that Mauer can return to his previous form.

While he wasn’t guaranteed a rotation slot in spring training, Brandon McCarthy (RHP, OAK) took advantage of an opportunity and made a positive impression. It was more than just his home park that led to the solid performance.

A strong second half is hidden in Niemann's overall numbers, making him a potential bargain in 2012.