Henderson, Verdugo, Vaughn, Civale, T. Anderson

Facts & Flukes

Brian Rudd

May 7 2024 3:02am

Henderson, Verdugo, Vaughn, Civale, T. Anderson

Brian Rudd

May 7 2024

Henderson doing it all … Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL) had an excellent debut in 2023, taking home American League Rookie of the Year honors. He has taken his game to a whole new level so far in 2024, rewarding those who paid up in anticipation of a step forward. Take a look:

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	FB%	h%	HctX/Brl%	PX/xPX	HR/F	Spd/SBO
2022*	591	19/16	.256/.256	12%/69%	24%	33	104/10%	125/92	20%	128/13%
2023	622	28/10	.256/.265	9%/71%	36%	30	118/11%	138/122	19%	137/10%
2024	145	10/6	.279/.281	6%/71%	39%	31	135/14%	188/146	27%	154/20%
*Includes MLEs

Henderson is making a major impact in a variety of ways:

He's hitting everything hard and getting the ball in the air a little more. Fly balls can't be expected to continue leaving the park at this rate, but Henderson is a good bet to reach 30 HR, and 40 could even be within reach given the early gains.
He had just 13 steal attempts last season but has been very aggressive so far this year and has yet to be caught. He boasts 90th percentile sprint speed and could push for 20-plus SB.
His ct% is pretty stagnant but he is making good swing decisions. He is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone and swinging at more inside the zone (from 69.5% to 73.7% per FanGraphs), and xBA concurs with the BA uptick.

Henderson is off to an incredible start, and the skills mostly support his production. He is making a lot of loud contact which has led to double-digit HR already, and he is also getting it done on the bases. Maintaining a similar ct% while adding power is a positive development and he should keep his BA at a respectable level. Henderson is a rising star who will continue providing across the board production.

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Verdugo showing improved plate skills … Alex Verdugo (OF, NYY) is off to a nice start with his new team. He connected for 4 HR during the season's first month, which puts him on pace to blow by his career-high 13 HR. Let's take a look at his skills to date:

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	G/L/F	HctX/Brl%	PX/xPX	HR/F	Spd/SBO
2021	604	13/6	.288/.271	9%/82%	50/21/28	103/7%	80/67	10%	109/5%
2022	644	11/1	.280/.268	6%/85%	46/21/33	110/6%	82/85	6%	80/2%
2023	612	13/5	.261/.275	7%/82%	46/20/34	122/5%	90/91	8%	99/5%
2024	123	4/1	.269/.283	12%/89%	50/17/34	94/4%	103/66	12%	96/6%

Verdugo will help more with BA than power going forward:

His ct% has soared to the highest mark of his career and a low h% is what's holding the BA down. He hasn't been a BA drag, but xBA suggests he'll be an asset in the category soon.
He's walking at a career-best 12% clip, giving him an outstanding 1.36 Eye and a strong .358 OBP.
His FB% continues trending upward, but HctX and xPX reveal a below average power profile that currently sits below previous levels. He may be able to take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium (+28% LHB HR) but has just 1 HR at home so far.
His speed is also below average, and he's never swiped more than six bags in a season, so don't count on him being too aggressive on the bases.

Verdugo is showing outstanding plate discipline, walking a lot more than he has struck out so far. Other than improvements there and a few less line drives, the profile looks much like years' past. Don't expect Verdugo to sustain his 20-plus homer pace but his stable floor remains intact, which gives him plenty of value.

Vaughn's power is missing in action. … Coming off a solid 2023 campaign in which he connected for 21 HR, Andrew Vaughn (1B, CHW) is off to quite the slow start in 2024. Through 123 PA, he is hitting just .196 and is still searching for his first home run. What is going on, and can he turn things around?

Year	PA	HR	bb%/ct%	G/L/F	h%	HctX/Brl%	PX/xPX	HR/F
2022	559	17	5%/81%	49/17/34	30	105/8%	97/100	11%
2023	615	21	5%/77%	44/19/36	30	119/5%	101/96	13%
2024	123	0	6%/70%	44/17/39	27	82/3%	56/66	0%

Vaughn's skills have nosedived:

Vaughn is actually getting the ball in the air more than he did a season ago, but none have left the park, as his quality of contact has been very lackluster.
His HctX and xPX have hovered around league average the past two seasons, but this year's lack of barrels and major dip in xPX are definitely troubling.
His ct% has also taken a huge hit and xBA shows the low BA can't simply be chalked up to bad luck. One small positive is that his O-Swing% and Z-Contact% are in line with his previous marks, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the strikeouts come down.

Everything looks rough for Vaughn at the moment, as he's striking out more and not hitting the ball hard at all. Perhaps a hidden injury is at play, as he is just 26 and looks nothing like the player we've seen the past two years. A rebound is likely coming at some point but it's reasonable to be dropping Vaughn in shallow mixed leagues given the lack of skills and production to date.

Can Civale right the ship? … Aaron Civale (RHP, TAM) had a stellar 2023 season in which he registered a 3.47 ERA across 23 starts. His surface stats fell off down the stretch, as he posted a 6.60 ERA over his final seven outings, though his 47/9 K/BB over that span showed the skills were holding up well. However, through seven starts in 2024, he's sitting on a 6.14 mark. What's going on and is a correction coming?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	Vel	G/L/F	H%/S%	HR/F
2021	124	3.84/4.25	6%/19%	91.5	44/17/36	29/74	17%
2022	97	4.92/3.68	5%/24%	91.2	41/20/38	33/61	13%
2023	122	3.47/4.12	6%/23%	92.2	38/21/38	31/73	8%
2024	36	6.14/3.88	6%/24%	92.0	32/30/37	35/57	17%

Those who drafted Civale should keep the faith:

His velocity is fine and he's getting more whiffs than ever before. His K% is right in line with the past two seasons, a level he can be expected to maintain the rest of the way.
He is pounding the zone with first pitch strikes and as usual, being very stingy with the walks.
Civale has clearly had some poor luck, as H%, S%, and HR/F are all working against him. In his last two starts, he has been victimized by a 41% H% and 15% S%.
Looking at the batted ball profile, he has allowed a very high percentage of line drives that has surely factored into the inflated H%. A 71st percentile HardHit% shows batters aren't exactly teeing off on him and the LD% should come down soon.

Civale looked good over his first few starts but the last three have been rough. His 6.35 ERA spanning 14 starts dating back to last season is a little alarming, but his underlying numbers remain both solid and consistent. Fantasy managers should remain patient with Civale, who should turn things around soon, and he has the look of an attractive buy-low candidate in leagues that allow trades.

Is Anderson returning to form? … After recording a 2.57 ERA in 2022, Tyler Anderson (LHP, LAA) suffered through a disastrous 2023 season in which the mark more than doubled. Through six starts this year he is sitting on a 2.23 ERA, so is it safe to say he's back?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	Vel	FB%	H%/S%	HR/F
2021	167	4.53/4.77	5%/19%	90.2	43%	32/68	12%
2022	178	2.57/4.02	4%/19%	90.5	42%	27/77	6%
2023	141	5.43/5.56	10%/18%	90.0	48%	33/65	9%
2024	36	2.23/4.69	10%/18%	89.3	46%	23/88	10%

Not so fast, the skills are still pretty soft:

Walks were a major problem for him last season and his BB% remains unchanged through six starts in 2024.
He's giving mixed signals on the strikeout front. On one hand, a career-best SwK should lead to more whiffs, but this is the fourth straight year with a 12% or better SwK and sub-20% K%, and his subpar velocity has also slipped further.
His fly ball tilt leaves him prone to the long ball, though in recent years he has maintained a lower than league average HR/F.

Anderson is off to a stellar start on the surface, but his skills don't look all that different from a season ago. He's again dishing out too many free passes and the whiffs never seem to translate to a strong K%. The combination of a lot of walks and fly balls makes him a risky investment and nothing more than a streaming option in deep mixed leagues.