(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Albies, Morton, Nimmo, A. Diaz, J. Sanchez

Facts & Flukes

Greg Pyron

Jul 5 2023 12:04am

(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Albies, Morton, Nimmo, A. Diaz, J. Sanchez

Greg Pyron

Jul 5 2023

Albies rebounds … Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL) batted .247 with 8 HR and 3 SB in an injury-plagued 2022 season, flashing worrisome signals in a few areas even prior to injury. However, he has enjoyed a strong first half, batting .259 with 20 HR and 6 SB through 351 PA. What has changed?

Year   PA  HR/SB    BA/xBA  bb%/ct% GB/LD/FB  h%  HctX/PX/xPX Brl% HR/F  Spd/SBO
====  ===  =====  ========= ======= ========  ==  =========== ==== ====  =======
2019  702  24/15  .295/.285   8/83  38/25/37  33  121/103/114   7%  12%  132/11%
2020  124   6/ 3  .271/.231   4/75  41/14/45  32   82/108/ 83   9%  15%  130/15%
2021  686  30/20  .259/.259   7/80  31/20/49  28  113/126/129   9%  12%  116/18%
2022  269   8/ 3  .247/.251   6/81  38/18/44  28  115/104/125   5%   9%   90/16%
2023  351  20/ 6  .259/.286   7/83  39/18/43  26  127/125/142   9%  17%  100/ 9%

He has addressed the concerns we wrote about back in February 2023:

His ct% and bb% are both up ever so slightly, but that was never really the issue.
The contact quality metrics have been much better across the board, as HctX, xPX, and HH% would be career-highs (HH% 2022/2023: 27%/38%). His Brl% matches his high water mark in that category.
He chased outside the zone more than ever in 2022, but his 2023 Chase% is back in line with his prior level (Chase% 2022/2023/MLB average: 43%/35%/28%). His 1st pitch swing% has decreased significantly to the lowest mark of his career (1st pitch swing% 2022/2023/lifetime/MLB average: 46%/32%/43%/30%).
Notice the BA upside suggested by his career-best xBA.
He has been much more efficient on the basepaths so far in 2023 following an uncharacteristically poor 2022 (SB% 2022/2023/lifetime: 38%/100%/79%). While he only attempted to steal once through the end of May, his SBO% rose to 19% during the month of June.

We noted prior to the 2023 season that Albies would need to be more selective at the plate and more efficient on the basepaths to reach his full potential. He has checked both boxes with his performance so far in 2023. The 26-year-old is on track to make a run at 35 HR/15 SB and could post a BA closer to .275 going forward.

Morton has dealt with lots of traffic on basepaths … Excluding the abbreviated 2020 season, Charlie Morton’s (RHP, ATL) 4.34 ERA in 2022 was his worst in a full season since 2015, but the 3.50 xERA hinted at some upside heading into 2023. Though he has posted a 3.57 ERA through 91 IP, it has come with an unusually high 1.44 WHIP. How are the underlying skills?

Year   IP   ERA/xERA   BB%/K%  xBB%  SwK  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  HR/F   vL
====  ===  =========  =======  ====  ===  ========  =====  ====  ====
2018  167  3.13/3.26   9%/29%    8%  12%  47/22/30  29/77   15%  .695
2019  195  3.05/3.26   7%/30%    6%  13%  48/22/30  31/74   10%  .681
2020   38  4.74/4.07   6%/25%    6%  12%  42/25/34  37/67   11%  .785
2021  186  3.34/3.22   8%/29%    7%  13%  48/23/29  28/70   12%  .568
2022  172  4.34/3.50   9%/28%    8%  13%  40/22/39  30/70   16%  .771
2023   91  3.57/3.91  10%/26%    9%  13%  45/21/33  35/78   11%  .733

Not that different from his norms:

His BB% is up a tick overall in 2023, largely due to a 12% BB% in June, but xBB% quells some concern. It's also worth noting that he has a 12% BB% vL in 2023 (lifetime: 10% BB% vL).
Morton’s current H% would be his highest ever in a season in which he has logged more than 80 IP, exceeding the previous high of 33% back in 2012, so it's fair to think there will be some pullback.
While his H% has been up, so has his S%, resulting in a near-4.00 xERA.
He’s still getting plenty of swings and misses. The curveball has again been his best offering in terms of SwK% (18%) and he has upped its usage from 38% in 2022 to 45%.
His average launch angle allowed was a career-high 13.6 degrees in 2022 and balls left the yard at a career-worst clip (1.5 HR/9 in 2022; 0.9 HR/9 lifetime), thanks to FB% spike and an unfortunate HR/F. The combination of some HR/F regression and getting that launch angle back down to 8.6 degrees in 2023 has gotten 2022’s HR problem under control (0.9 HR/9).

Morton has had kind of a strange first half of 2023. He has bounced back from a down season in 2022 with regard to ERA, but his 2023 xERA is actually nearly half a run worse than his 2022 xERA and his WHIP is fifth worst in MLB among qualified pitchers in 2023. The 39-year-old’s best days are behind him, but he’s still capable of posting something along the lines of a 3.75 ERA/1.25 WHIP over the remainder of 2023.

Nimmo powers up … Injuries have been a major factor for Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) over the years, as he has faced IL stints of 60 or more days in three different seasons. However, he avoided the IL in 2022 and posted his first $20 R$ campaign and he has provided similar value in 2023. How are things under the hood?

Year   PA HR/SB   BA/xBA  bb%/ct% GB/LD/FB  h% HctX   PX/xPX HR/F Brl%  HH%  Spd
====  === =====  ======== ======= ========  == ====  ======= ==== ====  ===  ===
2018  535  17/9 .263/.254  15/68  45/22/33  35   93  148/114  18%   7%  42%  146  
2019  254   8/3 .221/.228  18/64  39/23/38  30   79  119/103  16%   7%  36%   96
2020  225   8/1 .280/.263  15/77  47/20/32  33   67  107/ 70  17%   8%  33%  154
2021  386   8/5 .292/.252  14/76  47/22/30  37  105   87/ 72  11%   4%  41%  137
2022  673  16/3 .274/.263  11/80  51/18/32  32  105   97/ 93  11%   7%  40%  153
2023  372  12/3 .279/.254  11/73  43/22/34  35  117  104/122  17%   9%  47%  135
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun23 114   7/0 .255/.248  11/64  29/25/46  32  108  155/185  24%  18%  41%   95

There has been a shift in approach:

Nimmo has shown upgraded contact quality in 2023, sporting personal bests in xPX, HctX, Brl%, and HH%. He has also increased his launch angle from 6 degrees in 2022 to 10 degrees.
While he has sacrificed some ct% for that power, his ct% is still near MLB average and it hasn’t really harmed xBA much at all.
A double-digit bb% boosts OBP.
His wheels have held up well, as evidenced by Spd and a Statcast measured 76th-percentile sprint speed. However, he doesn’t run often and owns a lifetime 63% SB%, so don’t expect more than a handful of SBs.
Taking an even closer look, we see that most of the power came in June, as his xPX, Brl%, FB%, and HR/F soared and his ct% crashed.

Nimmo posted a triple-digit xPX and a 64-68% ct% back in 2017-19 but went to a more contact-oriented approach beginning in 2020. At first glance, he seems to be making an effort to blend the two, but in reality, the power surge was mainly in June and it came with a substantial drop in ct%. It will be interesting to see if the June approach is here to stay or if it was just a blip. If it sticks, he figures to threaten 25 HR, but it could come with a sub-.250 BA.

Is Diaz truly an elite closer? … Alexis D íaz (RHP, CIN) entered 2023 with enticing upside and a fair amount of risk. Through 36 IP in 2023, he has exceeded expectations, posting a 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and converting 22 saves in 23 attempts. Can he keep it rolling?

Year  IP   ERA  xERA  BB%   K%  xBB%  SwK  GB/LD/FB  H%/S% HR/F xHR/F  BPV
====  ==  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ========  ===== ==== =====  === 
2022  64  1.84  3.71  13%  33%    8%  17%  30/15/55  19/86   7%    9%   93
2023  36  2.00  2.89  13%  39%   10%  18%  37/25/38  26/80   4%   N/A  143

Probably not quite to this extent:

The K% gains are backed by an uptick in SwK%. His average fastball velocity is down about 1 mph, but it doesn’t appear to have been an issue thus far.
His BB% is a concern. While xBB% hints at some potential BB% upside, his xBB% isn’t quite as good as it was in 2022.
The reduction in FB% is good to see, especially considering his home park is the most HR-friendly in MLB, as it reduces his susceptibility to bouts of gopheritis. It’s also worth noting his pop-up rate of 12% in 2022 and 14% in 2023 (MLB average: 7%).
He has been aided a bit by a fortuitous HR/F and some good fortune with H%/S%, as evidenced by xERA.

Diaz remains a two-pitch pitcher, but he has altered his mix in 2023, increasing his slider usage from 35% to 48% (23% SwK%) at the expense of his four-seam fastball. That has contributed to the upgraded GB%, as the slider has induced a 41% GB% in 2023 compared to the four-seam fastball surrendering a 31% GB%. The 26-year-old’s ERA and WHIP figure to rise going forward, but he should still be a top-ten closer.

Keep an eye on Sánchez … With a 568 ADP coming into 2023, expectations weren’t high for Jesús Sánchez (OF, MIA). A right hamstring strain sidelined him for most of May, but he has amassed a .247 BA with 7 HR and 3 SB through 178 PA. Is there a reason for optimism?

Year   PA  HR/SB    BA/xBA  bb%/ct% GB/LD/FB  h% HctX   PX/xPX Brl% HR/F  Spd
====  ===  =====  ========= ======= ========  == ====  ======= ==== ====  ===
2020   29   0/ 0  .040/.138  14/56  57/14/29   7   97   44/ 80   7%   0%   98
2021  251  14/ 0  .251/.245   8/66  45/21/34  32  102  147/141  13%  27%  116
2022  343  13/ 1  .214/.241   8/71  47/17/37  26   90  125/ 94  10%  16%  109
2023  178   7/ 3  .247/.275   8/70  53/23/25  31  110  137/ 88  12%  25%   74

Yes, cautious optimism, but there is work to be done:

Sánchez possesses intriguing raw power, as evidenced by Brl% and average flyball exit velocity of 95.1 mph (lifetime: 94.8 mph).
The problem is that his GB% is stifling that power potential.
Sánchez's ct% is a few ticks below average, but it and his BA aren’t terrible, especially in today’s game. Though xBA hints at some upside, bear in mind that PX is a component of xBA and his xPX undercuts that.
Speed isn’t a big part of his game, so don’t count on more than a few SB.

Hitting the ball hard is Sánchez's best asset and he has shown flashes of his capabilities, including 14 HR in 251 PA as a 23-year-old back in 2021. However, unless he increases his launch angle and hits more fly balls, his HR upside is stifled. It’s still too soon to give up on him in keeper leagues.