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R&A: Expected home runs per fly ball
Nov 3 2011
BaseballHQ.com veterans will be familiar with the phrase "errant gusts of wind;" it is a way to describe some of the randomness that affects players' home run totals. We frequently encounter players who see spikes or dips in home run totals with little explanation. Hence those metaphorical gusts of wind, a few of which can inflate or put a dent in a player's home runs.
Home runs are actually fairly easy to break down. They are a function of playing time (AB), the number of balls put into the air (FB% and ct%), and the rate at which those fly balls leave the park (hr/f). We've long understood that playing time is fluid, that contact is an important skill (one where a player can improve or decline), and fly-ball rates, while not...
Almost!
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