2025 Prognosticating Successes, Part 2

The leaves are turning, the days are turning crisp and cool, and the pumpkin beers have been out for weeks. So...it's time for some post-season action! While we tune in to that, it's time to reflect back on how BaseballHQ did in our pre-season predictive player analysis.

Here, we review the "hits" — where the BaseballHQ process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most of these commentaries appeared either on the site in the pre-season or in the 2025 Baseball Forecaster. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.

Pitchers are covered here (stats in most cases are wins/saves and ERA); hitters were covered last week.

Brayan Bello: Lat tightness ended fast April start; HR/F jump, S% woes marred his May return. July SwK spike triggered 2nd half rebound; then allowed just 1 HR over final 9 outings. Healthy K%, GB% point to upside; mediocre BB%, struggles vL and durability woes look entrenched to date. But he's still young, and if he figured something out late... UP: 3.50 ERA (Thompson)
2024: 14 wins, 4.49 ERA. 1.36 WHIP in 162 IP
2025: 11 wins, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 166 IP

José Berríos: Continued pristine health, season-long H% fortune fueled more workhorse numbers and near repeat of 2023 value. K%, SwK weren't all that, however, and suddenly these trendlines look a little more ominous. It may not get any better than this, and we've already seen what can happen with his H% reversals. Let xERA history be your warning.  (Thompson)
2024: 16 wins, 3.60 ERA, 4.10 xERA in 192 IP
2025: 9 wins, 4.17 ERA, 4.39 xERA in 166 IP

Hunter Brown: After disastrous April (11.84 ERA), added sinker to his arsenal and mostly sailed from there. Heavy ground-ball lean, improved against LHH and repeated his skill of inducing weak contact. Only average BB% keeps his WHIP from true ace-level, but he's been sturdy and slowly increasing his workload. With another step in IP... UP: 200 K (Hershey)
2024: 11 wins, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 179 K in 170 IP
2025: 12 wins, 2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 206 K in 185 IP

Noah Cameron: Another southpaw who could surprise in 2025. He'll start the season in the minors, but his performance in Royals camp featured a heavy groundball lean (59% GB%), tons of strikes (2% BB%, 30% Ball%), and a decent level of swing-and-miss (11.3% SwK%). He doesn't have a big ceiling, but his stuff is good enough to crack the KC rotation later in the season once an opening arises. (Nickrand)
2025: 9 wins, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 138 IP

Garrett Crochet: A season full of surprises: 1) Got through the year healthy; 2) Was a better SP than RP; 3) Limited free passes throughout; 4) Did not seem distracted one bit during/after Trade Deadline role drama. Impeccable below-the-surface consistency, whether he was going 5+ IP or 3 IP. This could be bonkers. Follow the skills to... UP: Cy Young candidate (Hershey)
2024: 6 wins, 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 209 K in 146 IP
2025: 18 wins, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 255 K in 205 IP

Alexis Díaz: Despite the saves numbers, just about any metric says this isn't heading in the right direction. Second-half H%, S% masked some of the damage, but year-long drops in SwK, K%, velocity, xERA show the reality. At an age when he should be in his prime, skills are crumbling. Laws of regression say he could rebound, but the real risk is...DN: 4.75 ERA; <15 Sv (Hershey)
2024: 28 saves, 3.99 ERA in 56 IP
2025: 0 saves, 8.15 ERA in 17 IP

Jhoan Duran: Missed April with oblique injury; Ks didn't snap back until the second half but then H% undermined most of it. In the last two seasons, the roto categories have mostly underwhelmed. But given triple-digit velo, killer SwK, top-shelf GB% and that late skills surge, it feels like with health, a saves monster could be lurking just around the corner. (Hershey)
2024: 23 saves, 3.64 ERA in 54 IP
2025: 32 saves, 2.06 ERA in 70 IP

Erick Fedde: Sweeper incorporated while in Korea paved path for best season of MLB career, but it came with plenty of warts… 1) Subpar SwK shows he didn't fool many hitters; 2) More and more of his contact is in the air; 3) Skills nose-dived in 2nd half. Soft contact numbers and friendly strand rate covered it all up. Don't bet on another sub-4.00 ERA. (Nickrand)
2024: 13 wins, 3.30 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 177 IP
2025: 4 wins, 5.49 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 141 IP

Josh Hader: For those whose draft behavior is colored at least a little by ERA, this will look like another off year in his continuing odd year/even year pattern. Gopherball and strand rate feed that further. And while they seem to defiantly mock his xERAs, THOSE are rock steady and his 2024 SKILLS were vintage - that's all that matters. All in. (Truesdell)
2024: 34 saves, 3.80 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 201 BPV in 71 IP
2025: 28 saves, 2.05 ERA, 3.29 xERA, 161 BPV in 52 IP

Clay Holmes: Will be discounted in 2025 drafts due to losing the NYY closer gig late last season and the fact that he's trying to resurrect his career as a starter. Nonetheless, Holmes put up excellent skills in 2024 (151 BPX) behind a really unique combination of groundballs (64% GB%) and whiffs (13.0% SwK%). If he can control his high-movement stuff as a SP, he could have a successful transition back to a starting role. (Nickrand)
2024: 3 wins, 3,14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 63 IP
2025: 12 wins, 3.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 165 IP

Raisel Iglesias: First sub-2.00 ERA of his career was a gift from the H% deities. Despite that, three straight years of declines in all of K%, SwK%, Vel, BPX are notable. To be fair, those trends are gradual, and started from a rarified level. Bid confidently for another 30 Sv, just know that this may be the year that those trend lines extend to ERA and push ERA over 3.00. (Murphy)
2024: 34 saves, 1.95 ERA in 69 IP
2025: 26 saves, 3.21 ERA in 67 IP

Shota Imanaga: East Asian import delivered...exactly what 2023's foreign MLE (BPX) said he could. Wipeout splitter was season-long key to success. Also evolved in-season, throwing fewer fastballs each month, unveiling a devastating change-up in second half. Stingy bb% allowed him to work deep into games, boosting Wins. xERA doesn't support a repeat, but he's still a fine #2. (Murphy)
2024: 15 wins, 2.91 ERA in 173 IP
2025: 9 wins, 3.73 ERA in 144 IP

Seth Lugo: Second season in rotation produced even better results than first, with best ERA in any role since 2017 and blowing past his previous IP ceiling. However, while BB%, K% seem locked in, SwK% caps upside and xERA/xWHIP show he got more mileage out of these skills than we can expect. Don't pay for a repeat of surface skills or volume. (Pyron)
2024: 16 wins, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 206 IP
2025: 8 wins, 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 145 IP

Casey Mize: Seemingly has rediscovered his previously dominant stuff this spring (14/5 K/BB in 11 IP). The market has not moved on him much in early drafts (452 ADP), which creates an interesting buying opportunity for fantasy managers who can take on his durability risk. (Nickrand)
2024: 2 wins, 4.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 102 IP
2025: 14 wins, 3.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 149 IP

Andrés Muñoz: A third consecutive dominant season with elite K%; this time it came with regular save opps. H%/S% fortune was on his side, top-shelf SwK slipped a bit, and BB% remains an issue, but those are minor quibbles in an otherwise superb profile. His GB tilt, effectiveness vL/R, and xERA history reveal very little skills risk... UP: 35 Sv (Rudd)
2024: 22 saves, 2.12 ERA in 59 IP
2025: 38 saves, 1.73 ERA in 62 IP

Nick Pivetta: Showed some skill growth in 2023, and that carried over into 2024. As the Baseball Forecaster noted, he had the highest K% (22%) of any pitcher with a 4.00-plus ERA in 2024 — that alone suggests potential improvement in 2025. But the biggest change from last year is his home ballpark...so that 3.71 project projected ERA looks pretty solid. The six-round difference leaves plenty of room for potential profit, making him a strong buy. (Cederholm)
2024: 6 wins, 4.14 ERA in 145 IP
2025: 13 wins, 2.87 ERA in 181 IP

Drew Rasmussen: Underwent elbow surgery in July 2023, and when he got healthy late in the season, he flashed the elite level of command (35/6 K/BB in 28 IP) that made him a double-digit producer in 2022. His durability risk is higher than most, since that 2022 season was his only 100+ IP campaign in his MLB career. Nonetheless, these are skills well worth speculating on at his 256 ADP. (Nickrand)
2025: 10 wins, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 150 IP

Joe Ryan: Last year, we said "good chance ERA is headed back under 4.00"; passed that with flying colors before season ended in Aug (shoulder). HR issues subsided thanks to fewer FBs and friendlier HR/F, while K-BB% stayed elite with primo xBB% and SwK. Comes with injury questions now, but if things check out this spring, a borderline SP1. (Bloomfield)
2024: 13 wins, 3.60 ERA in 135 IP
2025: 14 wins, 3.42 ERA in 171 IP

Dennis Santana: Emerged as a viable late-inning arm in 2024, as he displayed improved skills, especially in the 2nd half which included a surge in K% accompanied by SwK% backing. He ramped up slider and four-seam fastball usage in the 2nd half, largely at the expense of the sinker. The 28-year-old appears to be next in line for saves with the Pirates and if most of those 2H gains stick, he could succeed in the closer role. That makes him well worth a flyer (505 ADP). (Pyron)
2024: 3 saves, 12 holds, 3.89 ERA, 1.09 WHIP  in 71 IP
2025: 16 saves, 12 holds, 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP  in 70 IP

Marcus Stroman: Weird season, with 1st half success driven by H%, S% luck, and 2nd half collapse made worse by same. Bigger picture tells us skills have been sliding for a while, with xERA, xWHIP, K-BB%, and BPX all showing steady erosion. Swk, Velocity trends are red flags, and if control falters like xBB% says it might, he could be done. DN: 5.00+ ERA, <100 IP (Kruse)
2024: 10 wins, 4.31 ERA in 154 IP
2025: 3 wins, 6.23 ERA in 39 IP

Logan Webb: No guarantees in life — especially with SP — but he's close. As the only pitcher who's now posted back-to-back 200-IP seasons, we know what he is (and isn't): a high-floor, control-and-ground-ball workhorse whose only demerit is lack of Ks. Recipe has worked especially well at home (2.78 ERA vs. 4.08 away), so if he leaves Bay, reassess. Otherwise? Invest. (Olson)
2024: 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, in 204 IP (2.78/4.08 home/away ERA)
2025: 3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 207 IP (3.10/3.36 home/away ERA)

Gavin Williams: A former top SP prospect who has produced an electric spring, including tons of swinging strikes (26.1% SwK%) while also keeping the ball over the plate (33% Ball%). There's some emerging breakout potential here. (Nickrand)
2024: 3 wins, 4.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 76 IP
2025: 12 wins, 3.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 167 IP

Bryan Woo: Master control artist continued rise despite missing six weeks due to elbow, brief forearm flare-ups, and hamstring issue. More change-ups helped him solve LHB, and while SwK may keep him from top tier and H% will normalize ERA, five Sept GS hinted at more (16.2% SwK). If the whiffs start to flow... UP: 180 K (Olson)
2024: 9 wins, 2.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 101 K in 121 IP
2025: 15 wins, 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 198 K in 186 IP

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Got past Seoul stumble, but triceps injury was bigger issue, costing him three months. When on mound, lived up to billing, as three of six pitches registered elite SwK, led by lethal splitter. Righties tagged him some, but 23% K-BB% says don't worry too much, and Japan workloads lessen durability concern. Could maintain 1st half pace (2.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) over full season. (Olson)
2024: 7 wins, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 90 IP 
2025: 12 wins, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 173 IP

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