RESEARCH: Using September + April to predict rest of season

Early in the fantasy season is a difficult time to give advice on specific players. Are deviations from expectations due to unanticipated changes in skills, or are they small sample size noise? Here, we examine whether “increasing” the early season sample size, by examining leading metrics over the past two calendar months, April and the preceding September, can help better identify the changes in leading indicators that are more likely to be predictive as opposed to noise.


Approach and Methodology

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.