STARTERS: Spring rotation wrap-up 2018, NL

With many of your drafts set to begin over the next week, let's take an early look at each team's projected starting rotation and relevant spring training news to identify guys whose stocks have changed during the spring.

As a reminder, our PT Today and PT Tomorrow columns will provide closer looks at these battles as they evolve.

Let's take a look at the National League. You can find our spring rotation wrap-up for the American League here.

You can use the links below to jump to the team of your choice.

ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WAS | CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL | ARI | COL | LA | SD | SF

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta Braves

                         -------------------Projected--------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Julio Teheran       237  4.00  1.30 | 3.1  7.6   1.2  40%   71 |  $6 | 20  0.87   5  12   2.4
Mike Foltynewicz    338  4.31  1.43 | 3.1  8.2   1.1  39%   80 | -$1 | 14  0.00   4   7   1.8
Brandon McCarthy    418  4.90  1.46 | 3.3  7.4   0.6  41%   63 |-$10 | 12  1.42   1   8   8.0
Sean Newcomb        317  4.37  1.52 | 5.5  9.3   0.6  45%   42 | -$5 | 15  2.35   5  15   3.0
Scott Kazmir        648  4.29  1.42 | 3.5  7.2   1.1  42%   56 | -$4 |  9  4.66   6   4   0.7

Spring Training Notes

  • Luiz Gohara (LHP, ATL) looked like an emerging young SP late in 2017. He will be out at least another month due to a sprained ankle. He remains a great stash in keeper leagues.
  • ATL also has several other young arms worthy of stashing for later in the season, including Max Fried (LHP, ATL), Lucas Sims (RHP, ATL), Aaron Blair (RHP, ATL), all of whom stand a shot at having an MLB impact later in 2018.
  • Anibal Sanchez (RHP, ATL) is going undrafted in most leagues. Those in deep ones should consider taking a flyer on him. His stuff has looked good this spring and his 2017 results hid a very good 107 BPV.
     

Miami Marlins

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Jose Urena          419  4.57  1.40 | 3.2  5.8   1.1  46%   42 | -$5 | 10  6.10   8   8   1.0
Dan Straily         322  4.42  1.34 | 3.0  7.9   1.5  34%   72 |  $0 | 14  1.29   2  10   5.0
Jacob Turner        743  6.35  1.86 | 5.1  5.8   0.7  44%  -11 |-$28 | 15  4.70   8   9   1.1
Odrisamer Despaigne 678  4.81  1.52 | 3.5  5.2   1.1  40%   18 | -$9 | 20  3.60   8  16   2.0
Justin Nicolino     721  4.55  1.52 | 2.6  4.5   1.0  46%   34 | -$8 | 10  5.23   7   8   1.1

Spring Training Notes

  • The worst rotation in MLB should experience plenty of churn in 2018.
  • Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) has looked pretty solid so far this spring (11/6 K/BB in 16 IP). As a young pitcher with upper-rotation upside, Alcantara has a shot to get an early look in the MIA rotation this season. The key will be harnessing the chronic wildness he has shown in his last two stops in the minors.
  • Elieser Hernandez (RHP, MIA) is someone worth keeping an eye on. He will start the season on the disabled list due to a dental surgery. He has displayed good command in the minors but likely needs experience in the upper levels before becoming a viable MLB option.
     

New York Mets

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Noah Syndergaard     31  3.10  1.12 | 1.7  10.1  0.6  52%  167 | $23 | 20  1.35   6  23   3.8
Jacob deGrom         35  3.24  1.16 | 2.2   9.9  1.0  45%  140 | $23 |  7  2.35   1  12  12.0
Steven Matz         329  3.91  1.33 | 2.4   7.3  1.1  48%   92 |  $4 | 16  7.88   8  17   2.1
Matt Harvey         331  5.28  1.60 | 3.4   7.1  1.4  42%   55 |-$16 | 20  4.50   6  18   3.0
Zack Wheeler        420  4.31  1.47 | 4.1   8.7  1.3  50%   74 | -$4 | 10  8.10   2  14   7.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Both Seth Lugo (RHP, NYM) and Robert Gsellman (RHP, NYM) could become replacement options for an injury-prone NYM rotation during the season. Lugo has put up a 17/3 K/BB in 15 IP this spring, and Gsellman showed flashes in 2016 that suggest he could deliver value over an extended period. Both have some end-game value in deep NL-only leagues.
     

Philadelphia Phillies

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Aaron Nola           63  3.38  1.20 | 2.4  9.8   0.9  51%  140 | $18 | 14  4.50   2  13   6.5
Jake Arrieta        102  3.73  1.26 | 3.4  8.2   1.0  49%   82 | $11 |  2  9.00   0   2   2.0
Vincent Velasquez   352  4.32  1.39 | 3.9  8.8   1.5  39%   71 | -$3 | 10  3.48   3  12   4.0
Nick Pivetta        430  4.24  1.39 | 3.5  8.1   1.2  43%   72 | -$2 | 15  4.70   6  12   2.0
Ben Lively          597  4.33  1.33 | 2.6  6.4   1.0  38%   60 |  $1 | 19  2.84   2  13   6.5

Spring Training Notes  

  • Nick Pivetta (RHP, PHI) posted a rough 6.34 ERA in the second half of 2017. But underneath that mark were some really strong skills (100 BPV, 10% SwK%, 64% FpK%). There's good profit here at his 430 ADP.
  • Mark Leiter (RHP, PHI) had a big spring before being sidelined until late April with a flexor strain (17/3 K/BB in 12 IP). He produced skills that were much better than his surface stats in 2017. If healthy, he still carries a lot of profit potential.
  • Vincent Velasquez (RHP, PHI) has a 12/3 K/BB in 10 IP this spring, giving hope again that he can turn his excellent raw stuff into results. Doing so is dependent on his ability to stay healthy.
     

Washington Nationals

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Max Scherzer         10  2.98  0.98 | 2.6  11.5  1.0  35%  150 | $35 | 19  3.79   3  27   9.0
Stephen Strasburg    26  2.76  1.04 | 2.4  10.6  0.8  45%  149 | $34 |  9  5.59   5   9   1.8
Gio Gonzalez        155  3.58  1.26 | 3.3   8.6  0.8  48%   90 | $13 | 14  4.30   4   8   2.0
Tanner Roark        246  4.13  1.28 | 3.0   7.6  1.0  48%   82 |  $7 | 18  7.23   7  13   1.9
A.J. Cole           539  4.73  1.52 | 3.4   7.2  1.1  43%   59 | -$9 |  9  4.00   2  13   6.5

Spring Training Notes

  • A.J. Cole (RHP, WAS) has solidified his hold on the WAS fifth starter job. Erick Fedde (RHP, WAS) is a higher-upside fallback option should Cole falter again. He's a former first-round pick who keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate. He posted a so-so 11/6 K/BB in 14 IP this spring.
     

Chicago Cubs

                        ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                   ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                   ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Jon Lester         117  3.72  1.22 | 2.6  8.8   1.1  46%  112 | $15 | 16  2.81   5  15   3.0
Kyle Hendricks     116  3.14  1.13 | 2.3  8.0   0.9  50%  109 | $22 | 15  3.00   0  21  21.0
Yu Darvish          50  3.81  1.22 | 3.1 10.5   1.2  40%  122 | $14 | 16  2.76   4  20   5.0
Jose Quintana       70  3.68  1.21 | 2.5  8.9   1.0  44%  115 | $16 | 15  2.93   4  13   3.3
Tyler Chatwood     258  3.72  1.35 | 4.2  7.6   0.9  58%   59 |  $7 | 16  2.81   8  18   2.3

Spring Training Notes

  • Yu Darvish (RHP, CHC) is looking like an excellent rebound target for 2018. His stuff has been electric this spring (20/4 K/BB in 16 IP).
  • So much for the downside potential of Kyle Hendricks (RHP, CHC), at least so far this spring. He owns a fantastic 21/0 K/BB in 15 IP. He'll need to continue to show pinpoint control and keep the ball on the ground in order to maintain his upper-rotation value.
     

Cincinnati Reds

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Homer Bailey        514  4.39  1.43 | 3.2  7.5   1.2  47%   73 | -$3 | 12  9.00   2   7   3.5
Luis Castillo        95  3.52  1.16 | 2.6  9.0   1.0  58%  129 | $17 |  8  3.24   2   9   4.5
Sal Romano          618  4.67  1.50 | 3.0  6.8   0.7  52%   71 | -$9 | 15  3.00   2  18   9.0
Tyler Mahle         407  4.22  1.34 | 2.7  7.1   1.2  52%   86 |  $1 | 19  2.75   3  15   5.0
Amir Garrett        516  4.94  1.55 | 4.2  7.2   1.5  42%   38 |-$11 | 13  1.38   3  15   5.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Amir Garrett (LHP, CIN) had a rough debut in 2017 but appears to be putting that behind him. He has posted a strong 15/3 K/BB in 13 IP this spring. An excellent athlete, it shouldn't be surprising that Garrett's growth hasn't been linear. He's a good speculative play again in deep keeper leagues.
  • Robert Stephenson (RHP, CIN) has been demoted to the minors after a being hit hard this spring. On the plus side, he struck out a lot of hitters (15 K in 11 IP), a continuation of some of the additional whiffs he generated late in 2017. He'll need to make bigger gains with his control in order to stick in a starting role. If that doesn't happen, he's someone who could emerge quickly out of the bullpen.
     

Milwaukee Brewers

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Chase Anderson      175  3.62  1.24 | 2.7  7.7   1.3  39%   83 | $14 | 15  5.74   2  10   5.0
Jhoulys Chacin      355  4.29  1.34 | 3.5  7.0   0.9  47%   57 |  $1 | 10  0.87   4   7   1.8
Junior Guerra       650  4.07  1.40 | 4.4  7.4   1.2  38%   29 | -$2 | 20  3.15   5  16   3.2
Zach Davies         299  4.10  1.31 | 2.5  6.4   1.0  50%   76 |  $5 | 11  2.38   4   9   2.3
Brent Suter         533  3.88  1.42 | 2.3  6.1   0.9  46%   72 | -$1 | 16  5.40   5  18   3.6

Spring Training Notes

  • Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) likely won't begin the season in the MIL rotation but stands a great shot at getting an early look in it. He delivered a 9/2 K/BB in 7 IP this spring, owns good stuff, and has shown good command in the minors.
  • Jimmy Nelson (RHP, MIL) could be out for the first half of the season in his recovery from a shoulder injury. There are better speculative plays than this one.
     

Pittsburgh Pirates

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Jameson Taillon     186  3.78  1.28 | 2.4  7.8   0.7  49%  102 |  $8 |  9  2.79   3   8   2.7
Ivan Nova           348  3.88  1.29 | 1.9  6.8   1.3  48%   99 |  $7 | 10  4.50   1   4   4.0
Trevor Williams     441  4.28  1.43 | 3.0  6.1   0.8  48%   54 | -$3 | 13  5.54   5  13   2.6
Chad Kuhl           387  4.14  1.41 | 3.3  7.0   0.9  43%   59 | -$1 | 16  8.27   7  13   1.9
Joe Musgrove        339  3.71  1.21 | 1.9  7.8   1.1  46%  114 |  $8 |  6 10.80   3   7   2.3

Spring Training Notes

  • Joe Musgrove (RHP, PIT) has dealt with some shoulder discomfort already in spring camp. If it turns out not to be a serious issue, he has a great shot at emerging as an impact SP in 2018.
  • Tyler Glasnow (RHP, PIT) is a potential rotation anchor that has been held back by poor control. That profile has continued so far in March. He has been very hard to hit (19 K in 12 IP) but hasn't been able to find home plate consistently (5 BB in 12 IP). He's still a good stash, but he's not someone you want on your active roster until he proves that he can make sustained improvement in his control.
     

St. Louis Cardinals

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Carlos Martinez      54  3.33  1.25 | 3.1  8.8   0.9  53%  105 | $17 |  9  4.82   7  11   1.6
Adam Wainwright     430  4.39  1.37 | 2.9  7.0   1.0  46%   71 | -$1 | 10  0.84   6  10   1.7
Michael Wacha       225  4.14  1.34 | 2.9  7.9   0.9  47%   89 |  $3 | 15  4.20   2   8   4.0
Luke Weaver         112  3.33  1.19 | 2.1  8.9   0.8  42%  122 | $19 | 13  0.68   4  15   3.8 
Miles Mikolas       293  3.72  1.29 | 2.6  7.4   1.2  48%   88 |  $6 | 19  5.49   5  12   2.4

Spring Training Notes

  • Luke Weaver (RHP, STL) appears ready to have a full-season breakout in 2018. He has posted a 15/4 K/BB in 13 IP this spring after a dominant run late in 2017 with STL.
  • Jack Flaherty (RHP, STL) likely is next-in-line for a STL rotation slot. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in STL camp (20/5 K/BB in 13 IP).
  • Alex Reyes (RHP, STL) is on his way back from Tommy John surgery. He has one of the highest ceilings of any young SP in the game but needs to show that he can keep the ball over the plate.
     

Arizona Diamondbacks

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Zack Greinke         49  2.90  1.06 | 2.1   8.9  0.9  47%  128 | $29 |  2  3.38   0   2   2.0
Robbie Ray           47  3.33  1.26 | 3.7  11.0  1.0  43%  119 | $21 | 13  6.75  10  15   1.5
Taijuan Walker      203  3.57  1.24 | 3.1   8.2  1.0  46%   89 | $12 | 11  5.40   2  13   6.5
Zack Godley         122  3.36  1.25 | 3.2   9.0  0.8  53%  108 | $15 | 13  2.70   6  15   2.5
Patrick Corbin      230  3.63  1.35 | 2.9   8.1  1.0  50%   95 |  $9 |  6  6.00   2   5   2.5

Spring Training Notes

  • Zack Godley (RHP, ARI) has justified his 122 ADP with a very good spring (15/6 K/BB in 13 IP) after looking like an elite SP in the second half of 2017 (131 BPV in 2H).
     

Colorado Rockies

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Jon Gray            165  3.72  1.32 | 2.8  9.0   0.9  47%  111 | $11 | 18  6.75   5  20   4.0
Chad Bettis         644  4.89  1.43 | 2.8  6.4   1.2  49%   67 | -$9 | 15  4.80   4  11   2.8
Tyler Anderson      418  4.14  1.33 | 2.5  7.8   1.2  47%   97 |  $5 | 15  6.32   9   7   0.8
German Marquez      337  4.29  1.40 | 2.6  7.6   1.2  45%   89 |  $0 | 11  9.82   5  13   2.6
Kyle Freeland       566  4.29  1.47 | 3.3  6.4   1.1  52%   55 | -$4 | 12  5.68   3  12   4.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Jon Gray (RHP, COL) is another pitcher with breakout potential that seems to be following that path in March (20/5 K/BB in 18 IP).
     

Los Angeles Dodgers

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Clayton Kershaw       8  2.44  0.89 | 1.3  10.5  0.8  50%  181 | $41 | 21  0.00   4  23   5.8
Alex Wood           115  3.17  1.18 | 2.5   8.6  0.9  52%  117 | $16 | 12  2.92   5  16   3.2
Kenta Maeda         198  3.79  1.17 | 2.5   9.2  1.4  40%  116 | $13 | 12  2.19   2  11   5.5
Rich Hill           126  3.57  1.14 | 3.4  10.4  0.9  41%  115 | $14 |  7  8.59   0   9   9.0
Hyun-Jin Ryu        340  3.60  1.27 | 2.6   7.9  0.9  46%   96 |  $9 | 10  8.44   5  10   2.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Top SP prospect Walker Buehler (RHP, LA) has looked like a budding ace in LA camp and should deliver good value in 2018 even if he doesn't stick in the LA rotation.
     

San Diego Padres

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Clayton Richard     483  4.57  1.52 | 3.0  5.9   1.0  60%   62 |-$10 |  9  5.00   3   5   1.7
Bryan Mitchell      483  4.19  1.42 | 2.1  7.8   0.2  44%  105 | -$3 |  8  4.50   3   6   2.0
Dinelson Lamet      204  4.22  1.30 | 4.0  9.9   0.9  37%   84 |  $3 | 10  3.38   3  11   3.7
Luis Perdomo        509  4.78  1.50 | 3.3  6.4   1.0  61%   65 |-$10 | 15  5.74   8  15   1.9
Tyson Ross          539  4.66  1.53 | 4.9  8.2   1.7  55%   49 | -$7 | 15  3.00   6  11   1.8

Spring Training Notes

  • Tyson Ross (RHP, SD) carries some solid profit potential at his current 539 ADP. He has looked healthy so far this spring (11/6 K/BB in 15 IP) and is back in a pitcher's park.
     

San Francisco Giants

                         ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                    ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                    ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Madison Bumgarner*   26  3.06  1.05 | 1.8  9.0   1.1  42%  135 | $29 | 19  2.84   3  27   9.0
Johnny Cueto        152  3.88  1.28 | 2.8  8.2   1.0  43%   94 |  $7 |  9  5.79   3  10   3.3
Chris Stratton      458  4.53  1.53 | 3.4  6.5   0.7  42%   43 | -$7 | 22  4.03   6  25   4.2
Ty Blach            603  4.60  1.34 | 2.3  4.3   1.0  47%   42 | -$4 | 17  3.63   1  15  15.0
Derek Holland       634  5.91  1.60 | 4.3  6.3   1.8  38%   12 |-$17 | 15  4.20   5  18   3.6
*Bumgarner's injury was announced as this article was being posted. See Saturday's PT TODAY for additional information.

Spring Training Notes

  • Chris Stratton (RHP, SF) has never shown roster-worthy skills, but he looks like a different pitcher this spring (25/6 K/BB in 22 IP). That's way too small of a sample size to elevate him from end-game territory, but it's growth that is worthy of tucking away to see if it is for real.

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.