STARTERS: Spring rotation wrap-up 2016, NL

With many of your drafts set to begin over the next week, let's continue our look at each team's projected starting rotation and relevant spring training news to identify guys whose stocks have changed during the spring.

As a reminder, our PT Today and PT Tomorrow columns will provide closer looks at these battles as they evolve.

Here is an overview of projected rotations in the National League after our recent coverage of the American League.

You can use the links below to jump to the team of your choice.

ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WAS | CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL | ARI | COL | LA | SD | SF

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta Braves

                 -------------------Projected--------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
J Teheran   177  3.57  1.22 | 2.8  7.7   1.1  38%   80 | $11 | 11  3.97   2   4   2.0
B Norris    635  4.11  1.39 | 3.3  8.4   0.9  43%   82 | -$2 | 12  8.53   3  11   3.7
M Wisler    475  4.42  1.36 | 2.6  6.8   1.1  36%   66 | -$3 |  8  3.12   3   6   2.0
W Perez     684  4.19  1.43 | 3.3  5.8   0.6  51%   44 | -$5 |  7  1.29   3   7   2.3
M Banuelos  661  4.76  1.52 | 4.2  6.9   1.2  39%   26 | -$9 |  5  7.20   3   3   1.0

Spring Training Notes

  • The off-season elbow surgery of Manuel Banuelos (LHP, ATL) could open the door for someone like talented Mike Foltynewicz (RHP, ATL) to make an impact on the ATL staff. He has been brought along slowly this spring after undergoing surgery last September to treat a blood clot issue. Given the steep drop-off in the ATL staff after Teheran, there will be opportunities for Foltynewicz to emerge once he gets fully healthy.

 

Miami Marlins

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
J Fernandez  33  2.43  1.03 | 2.5 10.9   0.6  44%  149 | $29 |  4  5.79   6   7   1.2
W Chen      209  3.33  1.23 | 2.0  7.2   0.8  39%   92 | $12 |  6  6.00   0   1   1.0
J Cosart    592  4.22  1.46 | 4.6  6.1   0.8  55%   19 | -$6 |  6  0.00   3   5   1.7
A Conley    406  3.88  1.34 | 3.3  7.0   0.5  40%   56 |  $2 |  4  1.93   1   0   0.0
T Koehler   524  4.34  1.42 | 3.7  6.6   0.9  45%   42 | -$5 |  8  5.40   3   6   2.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Adam Conley (LHP, MIA) has drawn some raves from scouts this spring, even though he hasn't been stretched out in MIA camp. While speculating on spring buzz often doesn't work out, there might be something to this noise. Check out Conley's skills from September 2015: 9.5 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 44% GB%, 116 BPV. With a current 406 ADP, there should be opportunity for you to take him late in your draft.

 

New York Mets

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
M Harvey     34  2.83  1.04 | 1.9  9.1   0.7  46%  135 | $25 |  7  1.29   4   5   1.3
J deGrom     37  2.88  1.09 | 2.1  9.1   0.7  45%  129 | $23 |  6  1.50   0   5   5.0
N Syndergaa  47  3.03  1.12 | 2.0  9.6   0.9  46%  142 | $21 | 11  1.54   1  10  10.0
S Matz      113  3.29  1.15 | 2.4  7.8   0.6  49%  102 | $15 |  9  7.00   5   7   1.4
B Colon     488  4.22  1.30 | 1.6  6.0   1.1  42%   85 |  $0 | 11 10.03   1   9   9.0

Spring Training Notes

NYM has the best rotation in baseball, with three SP currently being taken in the top 50 of drafts.

  • Steven Matz (LHP, NYM) is being overdrafted in many leagues (113 ADP), largely due to the fact that NYM has been so successful with SP breakouts in recent years. His control has been spotty this spring (7/5 K/BB in 9 IP). While he's extremely talented, there's not a lot of short-term profit potential at his current market value.
  • Zack Wheeler (RHP, NYM) is projected to return around mid-season after his complicated TJ surgery.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
A Nola      239  3.52  1.23 | 2.0  7.2   1.0  48%  102 | $10 |  9  7.71   2   9   4.5
J Hellickso 514  4.03  1.30 | 2.8  7.6   1.2  40%   79 |  $1 |  7  1.29   3  11   3.7
C Morton    617  4.28  1.36 | 3.2  7.1   0.8  58%   77 | -$3 |  6  8.53   4   5   1.3
J Eickhoff  319  4.24  1.29 | 2.8  7.4   1.2  38%   73 |  $1 | --------injured-------
V Velasquez 334  3.65  1.21 | 3.3 10.4   0.7  32%  107 |  $6 | 14  3.21   4  16   4.0

Spring Training Notes  

  • Jeremy Hellickson (RHP, PHI) is being ignored in most drafts (514 ADP). However, he showed some intriguing flashes in 2015, and he has been excellent in two starts this spring (11/3 K/BB in 7 IP). He's someone worth stashing at the back of your staff.
  • Vincent Velasquez (RHP, PHI) has been the star of PHI camp (16/4 K/BB in 14 IP). With three legit off-speed punchout pitches and mid-90s heat, his stock is on the rise.
  • Alec Asher (RHP, PHI) has been hit hard so far this spring, but underneath those struggles have been some impressive skills (14/3 K/BB in 8 IP). He also has a long history of strong command in the minors in spite of a lack of overpowering stuff.
  • Mark Appel (RHP, PHI) remains someone to keep on your radar. He was pretty solid in 2015 during his first stint in Triple-A (61/28 K/BB in 68 IP).

 

Washington Nationals

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
M Scherzer   15  3.19  1.04 | 2.0 10.6   1.0  37%  152 | $25 |  8  2.25   2   8   4.0
S Strasburg  41  3.14  1.07 | 2.0 10.6   1.0  44%  158 | $23 |  9  5.00   5  10   2.0
G Gonzalez  195  3.58  1.32 | 3.5  9.0   0.6  49%   94 |  $8 |  8  3.12   8   6   0.8
T Roark     433  3.91  1.24 | 2.1  6.0   1.1  45%   74 |  $3 |  9  1.00   2   9   4.5
J Ross      218  3.49  1.13 | 2.6  7.3   0.8  51%   91 | $12 |  9  2.79   4   9   2.3

Spring Training Notes

  • Lucas Giolito (RHP, WAS) has flashed his rotation-anchor upside so far this spring (9/3 K/BB in 6 IP). With some of the best raw stuff of any young SP in the game, he's a premium stash in keeper leagues and someone who could make an impact in the WAS rotation this season.
  • Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, WAS) likely will resume the swingman role he was so successful at a couple of years ago with SF. He has a 7/0 K/BB in 8 IP so far this spring, owns a wipeout curveball, and was one of the most skilled SP in the game in late 2014. And he posted an electric 30/4 K/BB in 28 IP during the second half of 2015, albeit out of the bullpen. At minimum, he's a premium LIMA target.

 

Chicago Cubs

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
J Arrieta    22  2.77  1.04 | 2.6  9.1   0.5  53%  125 | $31 |  6  1.50   2   9   4.5
J Lester     61  3.22  1.15 | 2.2  8.7   0.7  47%  122 | $21 |  7  5.14   1   7   7.0
J Lackey    185  3.72  1.28 | 2.2  7.1   1.1  45%   90 |  $7 |  8  5.63   1   8   8.0
J Hammel    236  3.67  1.21 | 2.3  8.2   1.1  40%  103 | $11 | 10  0.90   1  11  11.0
K Hendricks 218  3.57  1.19 | 2.1  7.3   0.6  50%  105 | $12 | 14  1.29   1  14  14.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Adam Warren (RHP, CHC) emerged in the second half of 2015 due to these skills: 9.3 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 47% GB%, 132 BPV. Most of those skills came out of the bullpen, but he did own a decent 2.2 Cmd as a SP. His strikeout potential in a swingman role on a talented team with a potentially top-tier offense makes him a good target for vulture wins.
  • Trevor Cahill (RHP, CHC) quietly was one of the most skilled pitchers in the game during September 2015: 11.2 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 60% GB%, 175 BPV. While those results came out of the bullpen, he has started two games in spring camp and has fared well in a tiny sample size (5/1 K/BB in 5 IP). At age 28, Cahill and his current 704 ADP makes for an extremely attractive end-of-staff stash given his skill rebirth, extreme groundball tilt, and role ambiguity.

 

Cincinnati Reds

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
A DeSclafan 259  3.81  1.24 | 2.3  7.8   0.9  42%   98 |  $8 | 13  6.59   3  14   4.7
R Iglesias  148  3.67  1.21 | 2.7  8.9   0.8  45%  111 | $12 |  3  3.00   2   2   1.0
B Finnegan  355  4.22  1.39 | 4.6  8.9   0.8  54%   69 | -$2 | 11  8.18   3   8   2.7
J Moscot    n/a  4.09  1.52 | 3.3  5.9   1.0  n/a   40 | -$4 |  8  8.31   1   6   6.0
A Simon     688  4.47  1.37 | 3.0  5.8   1.0  46%   48 | -$4 | ----------n/a---------

Spring Training Notes

  • Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, CIN) has resembled the breakout target so far in spring camp that he became after an electric showing in late 2015. He has a strong 14/3 K/BB in 13 IP this March.
  • John Lamb (LHP, CIN) has experienced some setbacks this spring in his return from back surgery. He's anticipated back around late April now. His former top-prospect upside began to come out prior to his injury in the second half of 2015: 10.5 Dom, 3.4 Ctl, 38% GB%, 112 BPV.
  • Tony Cingrani (LHP, CIN) has been electric in spring training (10/3 K/BB in 8 IP). While he's slated to begin the season in the CIN bullpen, he made some starts late in 2015 and still owns solid skills as a SP from 2013.
  • Homer Bailey (RHP, CIN) is rehabbing from TJ surgery and could return sometime late in the first half.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
J Nelson    285  3.76  1.28 | 3.3  7.6   0.7  50%   74 |  $7 | 10  1.80   4   2   0.5
W Peralta   526  4.14  1.45 | 3.1  6.2   1.0  52%   58 | -$4 | 10 11.70   3   6   2.0
M Garza     633  4.67  1.39 | 3.3  6.9   1.1  44%   59 | -$7 |  8  4.15   8   5   0.6
T Jungmann  370  4.29  1.47 | 4.1  7.3   0.8  47%   46 | -$4 |  8  1.08   4   8   2.0
C Anderson  533  4.22  1.34 | 2.7  7.2   1.1  41%   76 | -$1 | 10 10.13   0   4   4.0

Spring Training Notes

With four of the five members of MIL's projected Opening Day starting rotation forecasted to produce negative value, this rotation is ripe for opportunity.

  • Matt Garza (RHP, MIL) has looked horrible in spring camp. He's not someone worth speculating on anymore.
  • Zach Davies (RHP, MIL) likely won't start the season in the MIL rotation, but expect him to join it soon. He has an excellent 9/2 K/BB in 10 IP this spring, and with four of the five members of MIL's likely Opening Day rotation expected to return negative value, this rotation is ripe with opportunity.
  • Jorge Lopez (RHP, MIL) is another young SP who should get an early look in the MIL rotation after the initial incumbents flop. He had a strong year in Double-A in 2015 (137/52 K/BB in 143 IP).

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
G Cole       35  3.06  1.16 | 2.3  8.7   0.5  48%  122 | $22 |  2  9.00   0   1   1.0
F Liriano   120  3.41  1.28 | 3.9  9.6   0.7  51%   97 | $11 |  5  3.60   1   7   7.0
J Niese     374  3.99  1.38 | 2.5  5.8   0.8  52%   66 | -$1 |  5 14.40   3   2   0.7
R Vogelsong 625  4.45  1.41 | 3.3  6.9   1.1  43%   56 | -$4 |  9  4.00   2   4   2.0
J Locke     610  4.16  1.39 | 3.3  6.5   0.8  51%   57 | -$2 | 14  7.07   4   8   2.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Juan Nicasio (RHP, COL) has been the story of PIT camp (16/3 K/BB in 10 IP), putting himself in line to bump one of Vogelsong or Locke from the starting rotation. Given PIT's prior success with SP reclamation projects and Nicasio's skill growth out of the bullpen in 2015 (10.0 Dom, 12% SwK%), he's worthy of speculation in deep leagues.
  • Tyler Glasnow (RHP, PIT) has been assigned to minor league camp already. Given how shaky the final two spots in the PIT rotation are, he's another pitcher who could get an early rotation look. He posted an elite 82/19 K/BB in 63 IP at Double-A in 2015. Glasnow is a premium target in keeper leagues.

 

St. Louis Cardinals

                     ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
                ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
                ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
A Wainwright     72  3.00  1.15 | 2.0  7.0   0.5  49%   98 | $19 | 10  3.38   5   7   1.4
C Martinez      106  3.36  1.24 | 3.1  8.7   0.5  53%  106 | $12 |  4  5.79   2   7   3.5
M Wacha         101  3.33  1.20 | 2.9  7.8   0.8  44%   84 | $13 |  8  7.88   1   6   6.0
M Leake         263  4.08  1.23 | 2.2  6.1   1.1  51%   80 |  $5 | 11  0.82   1  12  12.0
J Garcia        222  3.16  1.17 | 2.2  7.0   0.7  59%  105 | $15 |  9  6.52   4  11   2.8

Spring Training Notes

  • Tyler Lyons (LHP, STL) is lurking outside the STL rotation. While it might appear that he won't get a chance to start anytime soon, the long injury history of Jaime Garcia (LHP, STL) could give Lyons a rotation look sooner than you think. He's a more profitable pick than Marco Gonzales (LHP, STL), who has struggled with his command and been hittable too often in the minors.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
Z Greinke    35  3.01  1.12 | 2.0  8.4   0.7  48%  123 | $23 | 14  1.88   1  11  11.0
P Corbin    193  3.57  1.25 | 2.1  7.2   0.8  46%   97 |  $9 |  9  1.00   2  10   5.0
S Miller    160  3.99  1.29 | 3.2  7.1   0.8  43%   62 |  $5 | 10  2.70   5   6   1.2
R De La Ros 398  4.29  1.37 | 3.4  7.0   1.2  48%   60 | -$1 |  8  5.63   2   7   3.5
R Ray       365  3.97  1.41 | 3.9  7.5   0.7  42%   51 | -$1 |  9  1.86   3   9   3.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Robbie Ray (LHP, ARI) could deliver some nice profit to his owners this season. He has looked good this spring (9/3 K/BB in 9 IP) and showed flashes in 2015 of delivering on his high ceiling, including a 114 BPV during five starts in July.
  • Archie Bradley (RHP, ARI) has been hit hard this spring (9.00 ERA). His underlying skills are reflective of both his upside and risk (9/5 K/BB in 10 IP).
  • Rubby De La Rosa (RHP, ARI) still is struggling against lefties (2/2 K/BB in 5 IP against them so far this spring). His electric stuff and dominance against righties makes him someone worth stashing on your bench.

 

Colorado Rockies

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
J de la Ros 530  3.98  1.30 | 3.6  7.4   0.9  50%   65 |  $4 | 11  4.63   3   9   3.0
C Bettis    589  4.33  1.48 | 3.2  7.0   1.0  48%   65 | -$6 |  7  2.57   2   5   2.5
J Lyles     703  4.88  1.44 | 3.0  5.8   0.8  50%   52 | -$9 | 11  5.56   4   8   2.0
J Gray      427  4.19  1.31 | 3.2  7.6   1.0  43%   70 |  $0 | 11  3.09   7   6   0.9
T Chatwood  683  4.66  1.46 | 3.4  5.3   0.8  53%   34 | -$7 | 11  3.27   6   5   0.8

Spring Training Notes

  • A horribly weak rotation desperately needs someone like Jonathan Gray (RHP, COL) to take a big step forward in 2016. While he has a near-3 ERA in spring camp, his underlying indicators suggest he's still a high-risk, high-reward investment (6/7 K/BB in 11 IP).

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
C Kershaw     4  1.92  0.88 | 1.6 10.8   0.5  49%  177 | $49 | 15  1.80   3  14   4.7
S Kazmir    214  3.41  1.18 | 2.6  8.1   0.8  43%   96 | $12 |  7  9.39   3   7   2.3
K Maeda     200  3.54  1.27 | 3.1  7.8   0.9  44%   78 |  $7 |  8  0.00   4   8   2.0
A Wood      278  3.32  1.24 | 2.6  7.7   0.7  49%   93 | $10 |  5  5.40   1   3   3.0
M Bolsinger 599  3.95  1.38 | 3.3  7.4   0.9  52%   73 | -$2 |  9  2.00   3   6   2.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Joe Blanton (RHP, LA) finds himself at the center of many jokes as a result of his chronic inability to perform up to his skills, a problem that has caused many owners to write him off completely. That said, those who rostered him in the second half of 2015 were rewarded both with elite skills (163 BPV) and surface stats (2.13 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), and those skills were supported by a 15% SwK% and 66% FpK%. He also has a great 11/2 K/BB in 9 IP so far this spring. He could work his way into the fifth slot of LA's rotation or be a hidden contributor to the LA bullpen. Don't dismiss him if you play in a deep league.

 

San Diego Padres

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
J Shields   133  3.51  1.26 | 3.0  8.5   1.2  45%   96 | $12 |  4  7.71   2   5   2.5
T Ross       92  3.28  1.28 | 3.6  9.0   0.5  58%  102 | $13 |  5 11.81   4   4   1.0
A Cashner   263  3.68  1.30 | 2.9  7.7   0.7  49%   88 |  $6 |  9  2.00   4   8   2.0
B Maurer    411  3.85  1.37 | 3.1  6.9   0.7  44%   63 |  $0 |  5 25.41   5   5   1.0
C Rea       606  3.80  1.25 | 2.5  6.3   0.6  46%   70 |  $2 | 14  3.86   6   8   1.3

Spring Training Notes

  • Robbie Erlin (LHP, SD) probably has been the most impressive SP in SD camp this spring (4/1 K/BB in 7 IP). He's a former top pitching prospect who has some nice post-hype profit potential.
  • Drew Pomeranz (LHP, SD) could work his way into a rotation option as well. While his skills became elite late in 2015 when he was moved to the bullpen, this former first-rounder still has time to become an impact SP.

 

San Francisco Giants

                 ------------------Projected---------------- | ----Spring Training---
            ADP  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  BPV | 5x5 | IP  ERA   BB  K   Cmd
            ===  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  ===  === | === | ==  ====  ==  ==  ====
M Bumgarner  28  2.88  1.03 | 1.8  9.4   0.8  44%  141 | $28 |  7 10.57   0   9   9.0
J Cueto      72  2.71  1.07 | 2.3  8.4   0.7  46%  114 | $24 |  4 16.62   2   4   2.0
J Samardzij 150  3.48  1.22 | 2.3  7.9   0.8  43%  101 | $11 | 13  8.31   4   9   2.3
J Peavy     382  4.34  1.27 | 2.4  6.8   1.1  36%   72 | -$1 | 12  8.53   3   7   2.3
C Heston    433  4.15  1.37 | 3.4  6.5   0.7  51%   54 | -$3 | 12  4.38   2  12   6.0

Spring Training Notes

  • Chris Heston (RHP, SF) arguably has been the most impressive SP in SF spring camp (12/2 K/BB in 12 IP). Problem is, his skills fell off a cliff in the 2H of 2015 (35 BPV), so he's more of a dart throw than someone you want to rely on.
  • Matt Cain (RHP, SF) recently made his spring debut. He was bombed by SD in the process. Given his mounting arm problems, he's a poor bet to make a positive impact in 2016.

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.