STARTERS: Expected Ctl, Dom surgers and faders

When forecasting future changes in SP performance, one effective forward-looking method is to compare strikeout and walk levels with command sub-indicators like swinging strike rate and ball percentage.

Our 2013 research on swinging strike rates (SwK%) showed that SwK% has a strong link with dominance rate (K/9).

We can extrapolate a SP's expected Dom by looking at the correlation between SwK% level and Dom:

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.