STARTERS: BPV vs. LH/RH, 2018 updated

Let's continue our one-split-away theme by moving on to lefty-righty skill splits of SP.

This analysis can help you find hidden skills before they blossom, which can especially be helpful when looking at young SP. It can also help you set your rotations based on the lineups your pitchers are facing.

First, the SP who own the best skills against RH bats:

125+ BPV vs. RH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
==================  ======  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP  2.0  13.5   1.8  36%  37%  80%   22%    34%  202
Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP  1.8  12.6   1.0  36%  25%  74%   11%    28%  192
Flaherty, Jack          NL     RHP  2.2  12.4   1.5  43%  28%  79%   20%    33%  186
Pivetta, Nick           NL     RHP  2.0  11.3   1.1  48%  33%  68%   15%    32%  175
Corbin, Patrick         NL     LHP  1.8  10.9   0.6  48%  30%  72%    9%    36%  173
deGrom, Jacob           NL     RHP  1.8  10.9   0.3  47%  26%  85%    5%    31%  172
Taillon, Jameson        NL     RHP  0.8   9.0   0.8  42%  29%  61%   12%    30%  169
Bieber, Shane           AL     RHP  0.5   8.1   0.5  57%  34%  71%    7%    28%  167
Maeda, Kenta            NL     RHP  2.6  12.2   0.8  39%  32%  72%   10%    33%  167
Verlander, Justin       AL     RHP  1.2  10.6   1.4  29%  29%  80%   11%    31%  165
Marquez, German         NL     RHP  2.6  11.3   1.0  53%  28%  70%   18%    33%  164
Syndergaard, Noah       NL     RHP  1.7   9.9   0.7  53%  34%  71%   12%    35%  162
Bauer, Trevor           AL     RHP  3.0  12.1   0.3  43%  34%  76%    5%    37%  157
Carrasco, Carlos        AL     RHP  1.5   9.7   1.1  44%  32%  78%   12%    33%  155
German, Domingo         AL     RHP  3.4  12.5   1.5  37%  35%  58%   17%    35%  149
Gaviglio, Sam           AL     RHP  2.5  10.4   1.5  51%  36%  72%   20%    34%  148
Severino, Luis          AL     RHP  1.6   9.5   1.2  41%  29%  74%   13%    31%  148
Buehler, Walker         NL     RHP  2.1   9.6   0.9  52%  27%  76%   12%    32%  147
Greinke, Zack           NL     RHP  1.8   9.7   1.6  41%  28%  75%   18%    34%  146
Eovaldi, Nathan         AL     RHP  0.6   7.7   1.5  45%  26%  67%   14%    30%  146
Clevinger, Mike         AL     RHP  2.1  10.0   0.8  44%  31%  71%    9%    32%  146
Stripling, Ross         NL     RHP  1.5   9.0   1.2  45%  32%  82%   13%    33%  144
Kluber, Corey           AL     RHP  0.9   7.9   0.9  47%  27%  80%   10%    33%  142
Nola, Aaron             NL     RHP  1.9   9.0   0.4  52%  26%  74%    7%    30%  142
Foltynewicz, Mike       NL     RHP  2.5  10.5   0.7  43%  32%  79%    8%    36%  142
Bundy, Dylan            AL     RHP  2.3  10.4   2.4  37%  25%  60%   22%    31%  141
Tanaka, Masahiro        AL     RHP  2.0   9.5   2.2  44%  27%  66%   23%    33%  140
Gray, Jon               NL     RHP  2.5   9.7   0.5  54%  36%  73%    8%    35%  140
Cole, Gerrit            AL     RHP  2.3  10.3   0.8  37%  30%  74%    9%    33%  139
Archer, Chris           NL     RHP  2.5  10.1   0.8  45%  36%  75%   10%    35%  138
Zimmermann, Jordan      AL     RHP  0.8   8.2   1.9  32%  35%  79%   13%    29%  136
Junis, Jakob            AL     RHP  1.9   9.4   1.8  40%  30%  68%   19%    33%  135
Martinez, Carlos        NL     RHP  3.2  10.4   0.4  57%  34%  72%    8%    33%  134
Teheran, Julio          NL     RHP  2.0   9.4   1.7  40%  22%  51%   18%    33%  133
Berrios, Jose           AL     RHP  1.8   8.8   1.1  44%  29%  69%   12%    35%  133
Buchholz, Clay          NL     RHP  1.4   8.4   0.9  38%  32%  73%    9%    31%  130
Glasnow, Tyler          AL     RHP  4.1  11.7   0.9  50%  29%  69%   13%    39%  127
Lugo, Seth              NL     RHP  2.1   8.8   1.0  45%  34%  75%   11%    33%  126
Nova, Ivan              NL     RHP  1.7   8.0   1.3  48%  30%  69%   17%    34%  125
*min 30 IP

Next, the guys with the best skills vs. LH bats:

100+ BPV vs. LH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
==================  ======  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
Verlander, Justin       AL     RHP  2.0  13.4   1.4  31%  28%  84%   14%    32%  196
Stripling, Ross         NL     RHP  1.3  10.7   1.1  48%  34%  85%   15%    33%  185
Cole, Gerrit            AL     RHP  3.5  14.5   0.8  35%  30%  79%   10%    32%  180
Wood, Alex              NL     LHP  0.6   8.7   0.0  57%  36%  86%    0%    30%  177
Skaggs, Tyler           AL     LHP  0.9   9.2   0.9  46%  30%  41%   10%    30%  167
Carrasco, Carlos        AL     RHP  2.0  10.8   1.0  47%  34%  67%   14%    33%  165
Heaney, Andrew          AL     LHP  0.8   8.5   0.0  55%  33%  78%    0%    30%  164
Morton, Charlie         AL     RHP  4.4  14.5   1.0  42%  37%  73%   14%    38%  163
deGrom, Jacob           NL     RHP  2.1  11.0   0.6  42%  34%  84%    8%    31%  162
Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP  2.4  11.5   0.8  37%  29%  89%    8%    34%  157
Suarez, Andrew          NL     LHP  0.9   7.5   0.3  64%  27%  58%    7%    27%  153
Keuchel, Dallas         AL     LHP  1.9   9.0   0.8  62%  33%  62%   23%    37%  150
Snell, Blake            AL     LHP  2.4  10.3   0.5  49%  17% 100%    8%    35%  148
Gray, Jon               NL     RHP  2.5  11.0   1.5  40%  34%  56%   19%    36%  148
Kluber, Corey           AL     RHP  1.5   9.3   1.3  42%  27%  75%   16%    34%  147
Corbin, Patrick         NL     LHP  3.6  11.6   0.8  51%  36%  66%   14%    36%  141
Bauer, Trevor           AL     RHP  3.1  11.1   0.6  45%  30%  87%    7%    36%  140
Buehler, Walker         NL     RHP  2.3   9.8   1.1  47%  29%  76%   14%    33%  140
Porcello, Rick          AL     RHP  2.2  10.2   1.6  36%  29%  69%   15%    33%  140
Boyd, Matt              AL     LHP  1.4   9.2   1.4  33%  29%  32%   13%    36%  138
Severino, Luis          AL     RHP  3.1  11.2   0.7  41%  36%  76%   10%    33%  137
Happ, J.A.              AL     LHP  2.3   9.3   0.6  53%  22%  38%    9%    34%  136
Syndergaard, Noah       NL     RHP  2.0   8.8   0.3  48%  36%  74%    5%    35%  132
Pivetta, Nick           NL     RHP  3.0  10.7   1.4  40%  38%  66%   15%    35%  130
McCullers, Lance        AL     RHP  3.9  11.5   0.7  50%  27%  74%   13%    38%  129
Greinke, Zack           NL     RHP  1.8   8.5   0.9  47%  29%  82%   12%    37%  128
Cahill, Trevor          AL     RHP  2.7   9.6   0.5  50%  30%  76%    9%    38%  128
LeBlanc, Wade           AL     LHP  1.1   8.0   1.7  35%  33%  55%   14%    33%  126
Freeland, Kyle          NL     LHP  3.5  10.7   0.5  43%  28%  78%    7%    36%  119
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP  2.4   8.4   1.1  49%  30%  62%   15%    35%  114
Richards, Garrett       AL     RHP  4.1  10.8   1.4  53%  28%  79%   21%    40%  114
Quintana, Jose          NL     LHP  2.6   8.5   0.9  53%  30%  76%   16%    38%  113
Tanaka, Masahiro        AL     RHP  2.6   8.5   1.2  50%  27%  82%   17%    34%  112
Bieber, Shane           AL     RHP  3.1  10.3   1.2  33%  41%  68%   11%    37%  112
Hendricks, Kyle         AL     RHP  2.5   8.7   1.3  43%  31%  67%   14%    35%  112
Petit, Yusmeiro         AL     RHP  2.2   8.4   1.9  41%  21%  80%   18%    35%  111
Yarbrough, Ryan         AL     LHP  3.7  10.6   1.4  41%  27%  72%   17%    36%  110
Richard, Clayton        NL     LHP  2.8   7.2   0.6  74%  30%  66%   22%    35%  106
Eflin, Zach             NL     RHP  2.2   8.5   1.7  34%  35%  69%   15%    35%  106
Nola, Aaron             NL     RHP  3.2   8.8   0.5  49%  27%  83%    7%    36%  101
Barria, Jaime           AL     RHP  1.9   7.3   0.7  41%  27%  80%    7%    36%  100
*min 30 IP

Finally, here are the SP with the widest skill splits when facing RH and LH bats:

BPV vs. RH/LH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. RH  BPV vs. LH  Diff
==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
Teheran, Julio          NL     RHP      133         -43     +176
Lynn, Lance             AL     RHP      112         -18     +130
Taillon, Jameson        NL     RHP      169          41     +127
Martinez, Carlos        NL     RHP      134          13     +121
Sanchez, Aaron          AL     RHP       76         -44     +120
Mahle, Tyler            NL     RHP      116           0     +116
Clevinger, Mike         AL     RHP      146          41     +104
Flaherty, Jack          NL     RHP      186          86     +101
Gaviglio, Sam           AL     RHP      148          49     +100
Marquez, German         NL     RHP      164          66      +98
Chacin, Jhoulys         NL     RHP      109          11      +98
Straily, Dan            NL     RHP       77         -13      +90
Ross, Tyson             NL     RHP       96           6      +89
Stratton, Chris         NL     RHP      100          12      +88
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP      202         114      +88
Maeda, Kenta            NL     RHP      167          80      +87
German, Domingo         AL     RHP      149          64      +85
Keller, Brad            AL     RHP       79          -5      +84
Bundy, Dylan            AL     RHP      141          65      +76
Nova, Ivan              NL     RHP      125          49      +76
Giolito, Lucas          AL     RHP       41         -31      +72
Peralta, Freddy         NL     RHP      112          39      +72      
Romano, Sal             NL     RHP       79          10      +69
Junis, Jakob            AL     RHP      135          67      +69
Weaver, Luke            NL     RHP      112          49      +63
Gausman, Kevin          NL     RHP      122          60      +62
Gibson, Kyle            AL     RHP      106          48      +59
Archer, Chris           NL     RHP      138          79      +59
Musgrove, Joe           NL     RHP      123          65      +58
Williams, Trevor        NL     RHP       73          16      +57
Bieber, Shane           AL     RHP      167         112      +55
Foltynewicz, Mike       NL     RHP      142          87      +55
Lyles, Jordan           NL     RHP      122          67      +55
McCarthy, Brandon       NL     RHP      119          67      +52
Eovaldi, Nathan         AL     RHP      146          95      +51
Guerra, Junior          NL     RHP      102          52      +50
----------------------------------------------------------------
Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. RH  BPV vs. LH  Diff
==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
Wood, Alex              NL     LHP       86         177      -91
Boyd, Matt              AL     LHP       62         138      -76
Keuchel, Dallas         AL     LHP       74         150      -76
Quintana, Jose          NL     LHP       39         113      -74
Wacha, Michael          NL     RHP       18          90      -72
Heaney, Andrew          AL     LHP       93         164      -71
Richard, Clayton        NL     LHP       40         106      -66
Suarez, Andrew          NL     LHP       89         153      -64
Skaggs, Tyler           AL     LHP      105         167      -62
Freeland, Kyle          NL     LHP       60         119      -60
Morton, Charlie         AL     RHP      107         163      -56
Barria, Jaime           AL     RHP       50         100      -50
LeBlanc, Wade           AL     LHP       79         126      -46
Koch, Matt              NL     RHP       27          69      -42
Cole, Gerrit            AL     RHP      139         180      -42
Stripling, Ross         NL     RHP      144         185      -41
Yarbrough, Ryan         AL     LHP       70         110      -40
Snell, Blake            AL     LHP      110         148      -38
Cashner, Andrew         AL     RHP       10          48      -38
McCullers, Lance        AL     RHP       98         129      -30
Verlander, Justin       AL     RHP      165         196      -30
Porcello, Rick          AL     RHP      112         140      -27
*min 30 IP vs. LH, RH bats

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Jaime Barria (RHP, LAA) has put up a solid 3.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP during his first 19 starts in his rookie season at age 21. Digging deeper, he's someone you want on your bench when he faces lineups with good RH bats. He has a 4.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and poor 50 BPV vs. RHers. He's much more effective against lefties (2.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 100 BPV).

Shane Bieber (RHP, CLE) continues to be hit hard at times, given that he relies more on command than raw stuff. Still, few starters have been more effective against same-sided bats than Bieber has been. He owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP against righties, along with these elite skills: 8.1 Dom, 0.5 Ctl, 57% GB%, 167 BPV. Lefties have torched him to the tune of a 5.50 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, but most of that damage has been due to a crazy 41% H% vL. That hit rate is the highest against LH batters of any SP in the game. His 112 BPV against lefties confirms that he has the skills to iron out some of his performance swings.

Dylan Bundy (RHP, BAL) hasn't delivered on his breakout upside so far in 2018, but it still remains dormant. Check out his excellent skills against RHers: 10.4 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 37% GB%, 141 BPV. A 60% S% and 22% hr/f vR have caused his 5+ ERA against them. His foundation shows more cracks against lefties, against whom he has a 5.37 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and marginal 65 BPV. While his strand and hr/f rates are normalized against them (75% S%, 14% hr/f), an inflated 38% H% vL has driven his 5.37 ERA and 1.74 WHIP against LH bats. He remains closer to becoming an ace than it might appear.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, BOS) has shown pinpoint control against righties (0.6 Ctl), a mark that has led to his 146 BPV and 0.93 WHIP vR. If he can make further gains against lefties (95 BPV vL), a healthy Eovaldi could solidify himself as an upper-rotation SP.

Sam Gaviglio (RHP, TOR) quietly has displayed some skill flashes worth tucking away. He has been electric at times against RH bats: 10.4 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 51% GB%, 148 BPV. A 36% H% and 20% hr/f vR have generated his mediocre 4.53 ERA and 1.36 WHIP against them. He needs a major overhaul against lefties though (5.49 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 49 BPV vL).

Jakob Junis (RHP, KC) is another young pitcher who could be a lefty/righty split away from showing further growth. He has posted a good 1.17 WHIP against righties, a mark that has been the product of this sturdy skill foundation vR: 9.4 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 40% GB%, 135 BPV. His struggles have come against lefties (4.81 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), as his skills erode significantly against them (67 BPV vL).
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Walker Buehler (RHP, LA) is one of just 10 starting pitchers in the game who own a 140+ BPV against both LH and RH bats. In addition, his stats against them have been elite too (2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP vR; 3.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP vL). Buehler remains one of the best young SP investments in the game.

Jack Flaherty (RHP, STL) has emerged as an upper-rotation pitcher in 2018, and he's got some more untapped upside too. Few pitchers have been better against RHers than Flaherty has been: 3.07 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 12.4 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 43% GB%, 186 BPV. His skills against lefties still have some room for growth: 10.0 Dom, 4.3 Ctl, 43% GB%, 86 BPV. If he can throw more strikes against them (41% ball% vL), Flaherty could make further gains.

Jon Gray (RHP, COL) has been much more stable against right-handed bats in 2018 than his overall stats might suggest. He has a 3.54 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 68 IP vs. RHers, marks that come with a ton of support from his skills: 9.7 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 54% GB%, 140 BPV. All of his struggles have come against lefties (5.75 ERA vL), but his skills against southpaws have been even better: 11.0 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 40% GB%, 148 BPV. With a 2.59 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 49 IP since July 1, Gray will carry significant breakout potential again heading into 2019.

Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) puts together some nice stats (3.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and skills (116 BPV) against righties. He completely falls apart against lefties (6.27 ERA, 1.97 WHIP), mostly due to the fact that he can't find the plate against them: 10.1 Dom, 7.0 Ctl, 28% GB%, 0 BPV.

German Marquez (RHP, COL) is another pre-peak COL pitcher that has taken a big step forward in the second half. He has been electric since July 1, both on the surface (2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and beneath it (158 BPV). He has been an elite pitcher against RHers (3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 164 BPV). His poor results (5.50 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) and marginal skills (66 BPV) against lefties suggest that improvement vs. LHers would enable him to fulfill his upper-rotation upside.

Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) might be one adjustment away from becoming a more consistent pitcher. He has been very good against righties (2.63 ERA, 0.74 WHIP vR) due to this solid collection of skills: 11.0 Dom, 3.6 Ctl, 32% GB%, 112 BPV. He completely crumbles against lefties (5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 39 BPV vL) mostly because he can't find the plate against them (6.5 Ctl vL).

Nick Pivetta (RHP, PHI) continues to be avoided in many leagues due to the blowups he has inflicted in 2018. That said, a closer look at his skills gives reasons for optimism. He has posted a 130+ BPV against lefties and righties, and his stats against RHers (4.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) have been much better than his overall stats (4.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). His struggles have come against LHers (5.49 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) due to a 38% H% against them. He has a more reasonable 33% H% vR.

Chris Stratton (RHP, SF) has a rough overall 5.37 ERA and 1.52 WHIP after 107 IP. If you're desperate for pitching though, Stratton can have some value against righty-heavy lineups. He has posted a solid 100 BPV against them compared to a horrible 12 BPV against lefties.

Jameson Taillon (RHP, PIT) is another talented SP with rotation-anchor upside who shows that upside in flashes. Taillon has been filthy against RH batters: 9.0 Dom, 0.8 Ctl, 52% GB%, 169 BPV. His stats against them have been good too (3.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). He has struggled to miss bats and find the plate against lefties (7.1 Dom, 4.1 Ctl vL), which has resulted in a rough 1.54 WHIP and 41 BPV against them.

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) has become a very inconsistent pitcher. A reason for that can be found in his lefty/righty splits. Against same-sided bats, Teheran's upper-rotation upside is evident: 9.4 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 40% GB%, 133 BPV. His command totally evaporates against lefties: 6.9 Dom, 6.8 Ctl, 38% GB%, -43 BPV.

Luke Weaver (RHP, STL) hasn't been able to build upon the excellent skills he posted in the 2H of 2017. Most of his struggles have come against lefties (4.77 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 49 BPV vL). His stats (4.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) and skills (112 BPV) have been much better against righties. Weaver will carry some good post-hype intrigue heading into 2019.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.