STARTERS: BPV vs. LH/RH, 2017 updated

Let's take an updated look at SP with wide lefty/righty skill splits so far in 2017.

This exercise can help you set your starting rotations down the stretch based on the lineups your pitchers are facing. It can also help us identify SP with hidden skills.

Here are the SP with the widest skill splits when facing RH and LH bats:

  • BPV vs. RH/LH Bats*
    
    Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. RH  BPV vs. LH  Diff
    ==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
    Lynn, Lance             NL     RHP      122         -17     +139
    Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP      246         109     +137
    Maeda, Kenta            NL     RHP      179          57     +123
    Garza, Matt             NL     RHP       98         -23     +121
    Salazar, Danny          AL     RHP      194          76     +118
    Teheran, Julio          NL     RHP      116           5     +111
    Taillon, Jameson        NL     RHP      140          32     +108
    Perdomo, Luis           NL     RHP      119          14     +106
    Leake, Mike             NL     RHP      136          31     +105
    Martinez, Carlos        NL     RHP      161          59     +102
    Chacin, Jhoulys         NL     RHP      115          15     +100
    Gausman, Kevin          AL     RHP      110          11      +99
    Lamet, Dinelson         NL     RHP      158          59      +99
    Adleman, Tim            NL     RHP      101           4      +97
    Volquez, Edinson        NL     RHP       75         -21      +95
    Nola, Aaron             NL     RHP      166          70      +95
    Lackey, John            NL     RHP      124          32      +93
    Berrios, Jose           AL     RHP      130          38      +92
    Nolasco, Ricky          AL     RHP      124          37      +88
    Bundy, Dylan            AL     RHP      111          24      +87
    Shields, James          AL     RHP       79          -8      +87
    Cashner, Andrew         AL     RHP       53         -33      +86
    Cotton, Jharel          AL     RHP       74         -10      +84
    Roark, Tanner           NL     RHP      111          28      +83
    Wacha, Michael          NL     RHP      137          55      +83
    Bridwell, Parker        AL     RHP       94          13      +81
    Urena, Jose             NL     RHP       83           3      +80
    Lugo, Seth              NL     RHP      113          33      +80
    Martinez, Nick          AL     RHP       69          -8      +77
    Harvey, Matt            NL     RHP       62         -14      +76
    Gray, Jon               NL     RHP      150          76      +74
    deGrom, Jacob           NL     RHP      172         100      +73
    Nova, Ivan              NL     RHP      121          57      +63
    Pelfrey, Mike           AL     RHP       42         -21      +63
    Foltynewicz, Mike       NL     RHP      104          42      +62
    Velasquez, Vincent      NL     RHP       88          27      +61
    Fiers, Mike             AL     RHP      114          55      +59
    Eickhoff, Jerad         NL     RHP       94          37      +57
    Cain, Matt              NL     RHP       45         -10      +55
    Walker, Taijuan         NL     RHP      110          56      +54
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. RH  BPV vs. LH  Diff
    ==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
    Richard, Clayton        NL     LHP       53         186     -133
    Garcia, Jaime           AL     LHP       32         163     -131
    Lester, Jon             NL     LHP       87         217     -131
    Corbin, Patrick         NL     LHP       91         194     -102
    Musgrove, Joe           AL     RHP       69         136      -68
    McCullers, Lance        AL     RHP      112         174      -63
    Quintana, Jose          NL     LHP       92         153      -61
    Estrada, Marco          AL     RHP       44         100      -56
    Biagini, Joe            AL     RHP       71         119      -48
    Shoemaker, Matt         AL     RHP       51          99      -48
    Anderson, Chase         NL     RHP       72         112      -39
    Wheeler, Zack           NL     RHP       50          83      -32
    *min 30 IP vs. LH, RH bats
    

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Jose Berrios (RHP, MIN) has pitched much better at home than on the road so far in his sophomore campaign. He also owns a significant lefty/righty split. His skills against RH bats showcase his upside: 8.6 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 42% GB%, 130 BPV. He struggles to find the plate against lefty bats: 7.4 Dom, 4.0 Ctl, 35% GB%, 38 BPV.

Dylan Bundy (RHP, BAL) has surged recently. In addition, his splits for the season reveal that his skills reflect his intriguing upside in certain situations. For example, he has been very effective against RH batters: 8.9 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 34% GB%, 111 BPV. That skill foundation crumbles against southpaws: 5.9 Dom, 3.4 Ctl, 31% GB%, 24 BPV.

Jaime Garcia (LHP, NYY) might seem like a pitcher you would use regardless of the lineup he is facing. Not so fast. Few SP own bigger lefty/righty skill splits than Garcia does. He owns a solid 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP against lefties, along with firmly elite skills (163 BPV). Both his stats (4.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) and skills (32 BPV) crumble against RHers.

Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) is another high-upside arm who has gone on a nice run in the second half (132 BPV since July 1). He's also a pitcher who could avoid his ups-and-downs if he could iron out his extreme LH/RH skill splits. He has been very good against same-sided bats (110 BPV), but his entire skill foundation crumbles against lefties: 8.2 Dom, 5.7 Ctl, 38% GB%, 11 BPV.

Joe Musgrove (RHP, HOU) is one of the rare righties who is much better against lefty bats than righties. His skills have been excellent against LHers: 9.5 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 48% GB%, 136 BPV. He doesn't strike out nearly as many RHers: 6.7 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 41% GB%, 69 BPV.

Ricky Nolasco (RHP, LAA) might not seem like the kind of pitcher you'd want anywhere near your active roster (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 26 starts). But he's someone who can be worth using in deep leagues against righty-loaded lineups: 9.0 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 43% GB%, 124 BPV. His command evaporates against lefties: 6.0 Dom, 3.4 Ctl, 41% GB%, 37 BPV.

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Matt Garza (RHP, MIL) no longer has the upside he carried last decade, and his inability to stay healthy over the last few years has made him unworthy of use in all but the deepest of leagues. That said, Garza has been usable against righty bats (4.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 98 BPV). You just don't want him anywhere near your active roster against lineups with good LH bats: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, -23 BPV.

Jon Gray (RHP, COL) has fallen short of tapping into his rotation-anchor upside over sustained periods. He has a rough 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP vs. LHers, along with a so-so 76 BPV. His skills come alive against RH hitters: 10.3 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 48% GB%, 150 BPV. And his surface stats improve significantly against them (4.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). Don't give up on him.

Dinelson Lamet (RHP, SD) is another young pitcher with a higher ceiling than it might seem. Few pitchers are better against righties than Lamet is. Not only does he own very strong surface stats against them (3.43 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), his skills are even better: 12.6 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 33% GB%, 158 BPV. He has been completely flammable against lefties (6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 59 BPV).

Luis Perdomo (RHP, SD) has not been able to turn some of his skill flashes into results this season. A lot of that inconsistency can be blamed on his deep struggles against lefties: 5.3 Dom, 4.3 Ctl, 57% GB%, 14 BPV. His skills become very roster-worthy against RH bats and feature a healthy combination of strikeouts and groundballs: 8.1 Dom, 2.7 Ctl, 68% GB%, 119 BPV.

Clayton Richard (LHP, SD) owns some of the best skills in the game against LH batters: 9.9 Dom, 1.4 Ctl, 67% GB%, 186 BPV. It's the reason he has posted a sub-3 ERA against them. Problem is, you can't use him against lineups with a lot of righty thump. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.55 WHIP vR, including a mediocre 53 BPV.

Jameson Taillon (RHP, PIT) has endured a rough season (4.85 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) after entering it with significant breakout potential. The reason for his struggles can be found in his skills against lefties: 6.5 Dom, 4.4 Ctl, 54% GB%, 32 BPV. His upper-tier upside is evident against same-sided bats: 10.2 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 46% GB%, 140 BPV.

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) has struggled to find consistency in 2017. Blame some continued struggles against LH bats for it: 6.5 Dom, 4.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 5 BPV. His upside comes out against RHers: 8.3 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 38% GB%, 116 BPV. If you want to limit your risk from him down the stretch, it's best to sit him against lineups with good LH batters.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.