STARTERS: BPV vs. LH/RH, 2017

Let's continue our one-split-away theme by moving on to lefty-righty skill splits of SP.

This analysis can help you find hidden skills before they blossom, which can especially be helpful when looking at young SP. It can also help you set your rotations based on the lineups your pitchers are facing.

First, the SP who own the best skills against RH bats:

125+ BPV vs. RH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
==================  ======  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP  0.9  14.9   0.8  39%  23%  67%   11%    28%  260
Petit, Yusmeiro         AL     RHP  1.4  14.0   0.4  27%  24%  79%    5%    30%  220
Sale, Chris             AL     LHP  1.7  12.7   0.5  38%  34%  74%    5%    32%  200
Karns, Nathan           AL     RHP  0.3   9.8   2.0  51%  28%  47%   22%    32%  195
Wood, Alex              NL     LHP  2.2  11.5   0.3  68%  29%  88%    7%    34%  194
Samardzija, Jeff        NL     RHP  0.6   9.6   0.6  47%  33%  69%    9%    30%  180
Martinez, Carlos        NL     RHP  1.7  10.6   0.7  54%  26%  78%   12%    30%  177
Severino, Luis          AL     RHP  2.3  10.9   0.8  60%  31%  81%   14%    34%  174
Peacock, Brad           AL     RHP  3.7  13.1   0.0  54%  30%  82%    0%    39%  168
Kershaw, Clayton        NL     LHP  1.5  10.1   1.0  47%  25%  86%   15%    32%  168
Greinke, Zack           NL     RHP  1.7  10.6   1.4  45%  29%  73%   17%    34%  167
Gray, Sonny             AL     RHP  2.0  10.5   0.8  55%  40%  55%   12%    35%  167
Salazar, Danny          AL     RHP  4.0  13.9   1.1  41%  38%  66%   15%    35%  162
deGrom, Jacob           NL     RHP  3.3  12.4   1.4  49%  36%  75%   19%    33%  162
Bauer, Trevor           AL     RHP  3.7  12.8   1.2  51%  41%  74%   19%    38%  159
Archer, Chris           AL     RHP  2.2  11.0   0.5  43%  30%  67%    6%    34%  158
Happ, J.A.              AL     LHP  2.4  10.8   2.0  49%  29%  75%   25%    36%  158
Cahill, Trevor          NL     RHP  3.2  11.1   1.2  62%  38%  72%   19%    36%  154
Kluber, Corey           AL     RHP  2.7  11.7   1.2  37%  33%  68%   13%    34%  152
Maeda, Kenta            NL     RHP  2.1  10.7   1.2  37%  32%  70%   13%    32%  151
Bumgarner, Madison      NL     LHP  1.7   9.4   0.9  48%  34%  74%    9%    32%  150
Lynn, Lance             NL     RHP  1.6   9.3   0.7  46%  17%  95%   11%    36%  150
Leake, Mike             NL     RHP  1.1   8.4   0.8  49%  28%  86%   11%    32%  150
Pineda, Michael         AL     RHP  1.5   8.7   1.9  53%  29%  78%   24%    32%  149
McCullers, Lance        AL     RHP  3.2  10.5   1.1  68%  25%  79%   26%    36%  148
Carrasco, Carlos        AL     RHP  1.5   9.1   0.4  45%  26%  71%    6%    33%  147
Nola, Aaron             NL     RHP  1.6   8.6   0.8  53%  30%  59%   11%    34%  144
Berrios, Jose           AL     RHP  2.2   9.7   0.9  50%  26%  71%   10%    35%  144
Garza, Matt             NL     RHP  1.4   8.8   1.0  43%  31%  65%   13%    33%  143
Chacin, Jhoulys         NL     RHP  1.9   9.1   0.8  53%  28%  76%   11%    30%  142
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP  2.3  10.0   0.9  45%  29%  68%   11%    33%  140
Arrieta, Jake           NL     RHP  1.9   9.6   1.1  41%  33%  63%   12%    34%  139
Duffey, Tyler           AL     RHP  1.7   8.1   0.4  61%  31%  77%    7%    32%  139
Perdomo, Luis           NL     RHP  2.5   8.5   1.0  74%  29%  66%   25%    35%  137
Porcello, Rick          AL     RHP  1.4   8.3   1.4  44%  39%  69%   15%    31%  134
Nolasco, Ricky          AL     RHP  1.8   8.9   3.1  43%  30%  71%   29%    38%  133
Adleman, Tim            NL     RHP  2.2   9.5   1.4  45%  30%  66%   14%    37%  133
Lackey, John            NL     RHP  2.6  10.1   1.8  44%  31%  77%   19%    34%  133
Ramirez, Erasmo         AL     RHP  0.6   6.6   1.3  53%  31%  68%   13%    29%  132
Ross, Joe               NL     RHP  1.5   8.8   1.5  36%  37%  67%   13%    32%  132
Wacha, Michael          NL     RHP  2.0   8.6   0.6  49%  34%  62%    7%    33%  129
LeBlanc, Wade           NL     LHP  1.4   7.3   0.7  55%  28%  58%   10%    34%  126
Biagini, Joe            AL     RHP  1.7   7.3   0.6  62%  26%  68%   10%    31%  125
Hahn, Jesse             AL     RHP  1.5   7.4   0.0  55%  32%  67%    0%    36%  125
*min 20 IP

Next, the guys with the best skills vs. LH bats, keeping in mind that most SP have not reached the 20 IP threshold vs. LH bats yet:

100+ BPV vs. LH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
==================  ======  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
Lester, Jon             NL     LHP  0.8  11.0   0.4  54%  32%  61%    6%    35%  207
Samardzija, Jeff        NL     RHP  1.9  11.4   1.9  34%  35%  62%   20%    36%  167
McCullers, Lance        AL     RHP  2.1  10.4   0.3  58%  34%  78%    6%    37%  166
Richard, Clayton        NL     LHP  1.5   8.1   0.0  78%  37%  83%    0%    31%  160
Estrada, Marco          AL     RHP  1.7  10.5   1.5  37%  34%  71%   15%    31%  157
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP  2.5  10.9   1.1  47%  30%  78%   13%    33%  153
Greinke, Zack           NL     RHP  2.1  10.2   1.3  48%  29%  85%   15%    36%  153
Nelson, Jimmy           NL     RHP  2.4  11.1   1.0  36%  35%  71%   11%    32%  150
Kluber, Corey           AL     RHP  2.7  10.3   1.0  54%  34%  70%   15%    33%  142
Delgado, Randall        NL     RHP  1.2   8.1   1.5  45%  25%  50%   15%    37%  138
Severino, Luis          AL     RHP  2.0   8.8   1.4  48%  25%  77%   19%    35%  131
Biagini, Joe            AL     RHP  2.3   8.3   0.4  57%  30%  65%    5%    37%  122
Fulmer, Michael         AL     RHP  1.8   8.2   0.2  45%  31%  71%    3%    36%  121
Cole, Gerrit            NL     RHP  1.3   7.5   2.2  42%  33%  55%   20%    33%  119
Archer, Chris           AL     RHP  3.8  11.3   1.1  41%  36%  72%   14%    38%  118
Pineda, Michael         AL     RHP  2.9   9.2   1.3  53%  31%  76%   17%    35%  118
Cueto, Johnny           NL     RHP  2.2   8.7   1.6  37%  32%  74%   17%    35%  113
Morton, Charlie         AL     RHP  4.6  11.9   0.7  46%  33%  88%   13%    39%  113
Darvish, Yu             AL     RHP  3.8  10.4   1.3  46%  26%  85%   18%    36%  110
Porcello, Rick          AL     RHP  2.1   8.7   1.5  30%  37%  79%   10%    32%  107
Tanaka, Masahiro        AL     RHP  2.2   7.5   2.5  54%  31%  64%   31%    33%  107   
Tomlin, Josh            AL     RHP  0.6   5.5   1.1  46%  32%  62%   11%    33%  107
Gsellman, Robert        NL     RHP  3.5   9.1   0.6  53%  28%  71%   10%    37%  102
*min 20 IP

Finally, here are the SP with the widest skill splits when facing RH and LH bats:

BPV vs. RH/LH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. RH  BPV vs. LH  Diff
==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
Scherzer, Max           NL      RHP     260          91     +169
Teheran, Julio          NL      RHP     119         -43     +163
Lynn, Lance             NL      RHP     150          -5     +155
Garza, Matt             NL      RHP     143          -8     +151
Chacin, Jhoulys         NL      RHP     142           3     +139
Adleman, Tim            NL      RHP     133          -3     +136
Hahn, Jesse             AL      RHP     125          -7     +132
Volquez, Edinson        NL      RHP     112         -15     +127
Gausman, Kevin          AL      RHP      58         -51     +109
Martinez, Carlos        NL      RHP     177          68     +109
Wacha, Michael          NL      RHP     129          22     +107
Salazar, Danny          AL      RHP     162          60     +101
Perdomo, Luis           NL      RHP     137          38      +99
Leake, Mike             NL      RHP     150          55      +95
Bundy, Dylan            AL      RHP      96           4      +92
Maeda, Kenta            NL      RHP     151          60      +91
Nola, Aaron             NL      RHP     144          53      +91
Bauer, Trevor           AL      RHP     159          72      +88
deGrom, Jacob           NL      RHP     162          75      +87
Cain, Matt              NL      RHP      56         -30      +86
Hellickson, Jeremy      NL      RHP      52         -34      +85
Gray, Sonny             AL      RHP     167          85      +81
Roark, Tanner           NL      RHP     118          37      +81
Harvey, Matt            NL      RHP      62         -14      +76
Pelfrey, Mike           AL      RHP      72          -3      +75
Foltynewicz, Mike       NL      RHP     107          33      +74      
Nolasco, Ricky          AL      RHP     133          60      +73
Carrasco, Carlos        AL      RHP     147          76      +71
Cashner, Andrew         AL      RHP      30         -40      +70
Senzatela, Antonio      NL      RHP     101          33      +68
Martinez, Nick          AL      RHP      85          18      +66
Cobb, Alex              AL      RHP      96          33      +63
Lackey, John            AL      RHP     133          71      +62
Cotton, Jharel          AL      RHP      72          11      +61
Arroyo, Bronson         NL      RHP      63           3      +60
Eickhoff, Jerad         NL      RHP     102          43      +59
Urena, Jose             NL      RHP      57          -1      +58
Wainwright, Adam        NL      RHP      95          39      +55
----------------------------------------------------------------
Lester, Jon             NL      LHP      80         207     -127
Richard, Clayton        NL      LHP      70         160      -90
Wheeler, Zack           NL      RHP      38          98      -60
Gonzalez, Miguel        AL      RHP       0          57      -57
Nelson, Jimmy           NL      RHP      98         150      -52
Gsellman, Robert        NL      RHP      52         102      -50
Shoemaker, Matt         AL      RHP      51          99      -48
Fulmer, Michael         AL      RHP      78         121      -43
Odorizzi, Jake          AL      RHP      57          97      -41
Weaver, Jered           NL      RHP      19          59      -39
Musgrove, Joe           AL      RHP      53          90      -36
Cole, Gerrit            NL      RHP      82         119      -36
Darvish, Yu             AL      RHP      78         110      -32
Santana, Ervin          AL      RHP      36          65      -29
Eflin, Zach             NL      RHP      48          76      -29
Marquez, German         NL      RHP      77          99      -22
*min 20 IP vs. LH, RH bats

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) has put up some ugly surface stats (5.85 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) on top of some good skills (119 BPV). Digging deeper, most of the damage against him continues to be inflicted by LH bats. He has a marginal 72 BPV against them, compared to an upper-tier 159 BPV against RH batters.

Jose Berrios (RHP, MIN) is 6-1 after his first seven starts in the 2017 season. His skills back up his early success too (106 BPV). And they become near-elite when he faces RH bats: 9.7 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 50% GB%, 144 BPV. Further gains against lefties (2.1 Cmd vL in '17 after 1.4 Cmd vL in '16) would help Berrios reach another level.

Tyler Duffey (RHP, MIN) is available in a lot of leagues because he has been relegated to the bullpen this season. That said, few pitchers have been better than Duffey against RHers so far in 2017: 8.1 Dom, 1.7 Ctl, 61% GB%, 139 BPV. And his command actually has been even better against lefties (6.5 Cmd vL). If you're looking for a sneaky end-staff stash for the second half, this is a good place to speculate.

Sonny Gray (RHP, OAK) has enjoyed a big rebound season so far in 2017. Credit some electric skills against same-sided batters for it: 10.5 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 55% GB%, 167 BPV. A crazy 40% H% vR has given him a 6+ ERA against them. As that regresses, so too will his ERA.

Nathan Karns (RHP, KC) was one of the game's best SP against RH batters before his injury. He posted an amazing 30/1 K/BB in 27 IP against them, good for a 195 BPV. He was victimized by a 47% H% and 22% hr/f against them. He has the potential to post a near-3 ERA after he gets healthy, assuming he can hang on to the skill growth he has shown this season.

Brad Peacock (RHP, HOU) is another pitcher approaching age 30 who has made some nice skill gains in 2017. His current 129 BPV is more than 2x better than any skills we've seen from him before. Credit an elite level of strikeouts against RH bats for it (13.1 Dom), along with an ability to keep the ball on the ground (54% GB%).

Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, LAA) is another bullpen arm with SP potential worth stashing. In fact, only Max Scherzer and Andrew Miller have posted better skills against RH batters so far in 2017 than Petit. He owns an amazing 34/2 K/BB in 24 IP against same-sided batters. What continues to hold him back is spotty command against lefties (1.2 Cmd vL).

Luis Severino (RHP, NYY) has taken a huge step forward in 2017 and is showing no signs of slowing down. He owns ace-like stats against RH batters (2.47 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) which have been backed up by an elite 174 BPV. His stats and skills against lefties have been really good too (3.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 131 BPV). No reason to sell high here.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, NYY) is one of the better buy-low targets in the game. He owns a 100+ BPV against both LH and RH batters. The main reason for his struggles has been a crazy 31% hr/f against lefties, nearly double the 18% hr/f he owns against righties. His surface stats will improve as that mark comes down.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Jhoulys Chacin (RHP, SD) is not someone many owners are relying on, but he can provide some sneaky value if you use him judiciously. He's one of the NL's better starters against right-handed batters: 9.1 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 53% GB%, 142 BPV. Those skills have helped him produce a 2.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against them. He completely falls apart against lefties, both on the surface (8.62 ERA, 1.85 WHIP) and beneath it (3 BPV).

Randall Delgado (RHP, ARI) has gone back to a long-relief role, but once a rotation spot opens back up in ARI, expect him to grab it and excel. Delgado has been even better against lefties (138 BPV) than righties (122 BPV) this season. Struggles vs. LHers are what held him back in the past.

Matt Garza (RHP, MIL) is years removed from being an attractive target. Still, he's another veteran SP who can provide value to you in doses. Check out how skilled he has been against RH batters: 8.8 Dom, 1.4 Ctl, 43% GB, 143 BPV. You just don't want to use him against lineups with good lefties in them: 4.3 Dom, 3.9 Ctl, 42% GB%, -8 BPV.

Jon Lester (LHP, CHC) has struggled a bit in 2017. We can point to some control problems vs. RHers as the culprit. He has a shaky 3.8 Ctl vR, due mostly to throwing a low volume of strikes against them (39% ball%). Conversely, no SP has been better against lefties than Lester: 26/2 K/BB, 207 BPV in 21 IP.

Jimmy Nelson (RHP, MIL) is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball now. His growth this season can be credited to some elite skills against opposite-sided batters: 11.1 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 36% GB%, 150 BPV. Converting some of that success against right-handed batters (98 BPV vR) would help him accelerate and sustain his growth.

Luis Perdomo (RHP, SD) has posted some inconsistent results in 2017 despite some really good skills. Digging deeper, nearly all of his problems have been inflicted by LH bats (6.48 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 38 BPV vL). His stats and skills improve markedly against right-handed batters: 4.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 137 BPV.

Clayton Richard (LHP, SD) is another veteran pitcher who can provide value in small doses. Few SP are more successful against lefties than Richard is (1.93 ERA), and that mark has been backed up by an elite 160 BPV. He's much more mediocre than good against righties (70 BPV).

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) has been walking a fine line between upper-tier SP and guy you want to avoid. That inconsistency has been driven nearly entirely by some massive struggles against left-handed batters. He has a 5.95 ERA and 1.72 WHIP against them, along with a putrid -43 BPV. He's someone very roster-worthy against righty-dominant lineups: 3.62 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 119 BPV vR.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.