STARTERS: BPV home/road, 2017 updated

Our research in 2013 confirmed that ERA, WHIP, win percentage, BPV, Dom (K/9), and Ctl (BB/9) all had significant home/road variances.

Let's update that analysis with stats and skills since that point:

  • Home Stats & Skills: 2010-2017 YTD*
    
    Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    2010      AL  3.87  1.30   .558  3.1  6.9   1.0  44%  29%  73%    9%    37%   63
    2011      AL  4.02  1.31   .534  3.0  7.0   1.0  45%  30%  72%   11%    36%   68
    2012      AL  3.90  1.27   .534  2.9  7.6   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    36%   80
    2013      AL  3.95  1.30   .533  3.0  7.8   1.0  43%  30%  73%   11%    36%   82
    2014      AL  3.79  1.26   .519  2.8  7.7   0.9  44%  30%  72%    9%    36%   85
    2015      AL  3.79  1.24   .543  2.7  7.7   1.0  44%  29%  73%   11%    36%   87          
    2016      AL  4.06  1.29   .544  2.9  8.1   1.2  44%  30%  73%   13%    36%   92
    2017**    AL  4.17  1.31   .540  3.1  8.3   1.3  43%  30%  73%   14%    37%   87
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010      NL  3.77  1.30   .560  3.2  7.6   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   74
    2011      NL  3.65  1.27   .519  2.9  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   77
    2012      NL  3.76  1.27   .532  2.9  7.8   1.0  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   86
    2013      NL  3.55  1.24   .543  2.8  7.6   0.9  46%  30%  74%   12%    36%   86
    2014      NL  3.43  1.22   .541  2.8  8.0   0.8  46%  30%  74%   10%    36%   93
    2015      NL  3.74  1.27   .540  2.8  8.0   1.0  47%  31%  73%   11%    36%   93
    2016      NL  3.98  1.29   .516  3.1  8.3   1.1  45%  30%  72%   12%    36%   89
    2017**    NL  4.14  1.31   .543  3.2  8.3   1.2  46%  30%  72%   13%    36%   87
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010     MLB  3.82  1.30   .559  3.1  7.3   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   69
    2011     MLB  3.82  1.28   .526  3.0  7.2   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   72
    2012     MLB  3.83  1.30   .533  3.1  7.3   0.9  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   70
    2013     MLB  3.75  1.27   .538  2.9  7.7   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   84
    2014     MLB  3.61  1.24   .530  2.8  7.8   0.8  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   89
    2015     MLB  3.77  1.25   .541  2.8  7.9   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   90
    2016     MLB  4.02  1.29   .530  3.0  8.2   1.1  45%  30%  72%   13%    36%   90
    2017**   MLB  4.15  1.31   .541  3.2  8.3   1.2  45%  30%  72%   14%    37%   87
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *all pitchers
    **as of August 18
  • Road Stats & Skills: 2010-2017 YTD*
    
    Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    2010      AL  4.42  1.40   .449  3.4  6.8   1.0  44%  30%  71%   10%    38%   51
    2011      AL  4.15  1.34   .470  3.2  6.9   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   60
    2012      AL  4.29  1.35   .481  3.2  7.3   1.2  44%  30%  71%   12%    37%   67
    2013      AL  4.04  1.34   .470  3.2  7.5   1.1  43%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
    2014      AL  3.85  1.31   .491  3.0  7.6   0.9  44%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
    2015      AL  4.25  1.35   .471  3.1  7.6   1.1  45%  31%  71%   12%    36%   77
    2016      AL  4.36  1.36   .468  3.2  7.9   1.2  44%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
    2017**    AL  4.61  1.37   .464  3.4  8.3   1.3  43%  31%  70%   14%    37%   79
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010      NL  4.30  1.40   .433  3.5  7.2   1.0  44%  31%  72%   10%    38%   58
    2011      NL  4.00  1.35   .478  3.3  7.2   1.0  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   62
    2012      NL  4.15  1.35   .455  3.3  7.6   1.0  45%  31%  72%   11%    37%   72
    2013      NL  3.93  1.32   .453  3.2  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   70
    2014      NL  3.91  1.32   .449  3.0  7.6   0.9  46%  31%  72%   10%    36%   79
    2015      NL  4.09  1.33   .446  3.1  7.7   1.0  46%  31%  72%   11%    36%   80
    2016      NL  4.38  1.37   .472  3.4  8.1   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
    2017**    NL  4.56  1.39   .453  3.5  8.3   1.3  44%  31%  71%   15%    37%   78
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010     MLB  4.36  1.40   .441  3.4  7.0   1.0  44%  31%  71%   10%    38%   55
    2011     MLB  4.07  1.35   .474  3.3  7.1   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   61
    2012     MLB  4.22  1.35   .467  3.2  7.4   1.1  45%  31%  72%   12%    37%   70
    2013     MLB  3.99  1.33   .462  3.2  7.4   1.0  44%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
    2014     MLB  3.88  1.31   .470  3.0  7.6   0.9  45%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
    2015     MLB  4.17  1.34   .458  3.1  7.7   1.1  45%  31%  72%   13%    36%   78
    2016     MLB  4.37  1.36   .470  3.3  8.0   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
    2017**   MLB  4.59  1.38   .459  3.4  8.3   1.3  44%  31%  71%   14%    37%   78
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *all pitchers
    **as of August 18

Let's summarize the main findings:

  • Target SP pitching at home, as home pitchers continue to post much better stats and skills than their road counterparts
  • The greatest home/road variance is in control rate (BB/9)
    • Road pitchers have had a higher percentage of pitches called balls (ball%) in five of the last seven seasons compared to home pitchers
    • This could be due to pitchers being more jittery on the road and therefore more prone to throw balls, or perhaps an umpire bias that results in more pitches called balls called away from home
    • The ball% variance isn't great, but it does help to explain why home pitchers have better control rates than road pitchers

***

Here are the SP with the widest home/road skill splits so far in 2017:

  • BPV Home vs. Road, 2017 YTD*
    
    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Pivetta, Nick           NL     166       -3     +169
    Garcia, Jaime           AL     109       29      +80
    Berrios, Jose           AL     128       53      +75
    Adleman, Tim            NL      88       14      +74
    Cain, Matt              NL      46      -28      +73
    Chavez, Jesse           AL      97       27      +70
    Archer, Chris           AL     176      106      +70
    Roark, Tanner           NL      97       35      +62
    Tanaka, Masahiro        AL     168      106      +62
    Wood, Alex              NL     167      109      +59
    Bauer, Trevor           AL     141       83      +58
    Nola, Aaron             NL     153       99      +53
    Gausman, Kevin          AL     100       48      +52
    Cobb, Alex              AL      96       44      +52
    Pomeranz, Drew          AL     123       73      +51
    Dickey, R.A.            NL      66       16      +50
    McCullers, Lance        AL     167      118      +49
    Odorizzi, Jake          AL      70       24      +46
    Gonzalez, Miguel        AL      46        3      +43
    Freeland, Kyle          NL      71       27      +43
    Lackey, John            NL     109       65      +43
    Moore, Matt             NL      88       49      +39
    Maeda, Kenta            NL     132       94      +38
    Greinke, Zack           NL     169      132      +38
    Sabathia, C.C.          AL      86       49      +37
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL     154      118      +36
    Montgomery, Jordan      AL     114       79      +35
    Miranda, Ariel          AL      76       42      +34
    Williams, Trevor        NL      86       56      +30
    Porcello, Rick          AL     130      100      +30
    ---------------------------------------------------
    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Montgomery, Mike        NL      15       83      -68
    Verlander, Justin       AL      43       96      -53
    Hellickson, Jeremy      AL      25       73      -48
    Hoffman, Jeff           NL      46       92      -46
    Samardzija, Jeff        NL     126      172      -45
    Cueto, Johnny           NL      52       95      -43
    Ray, Robbie             NL      82      125      -42
    Perez, Martin           AL      27       68      -41
    Peacock, Brad           AL      90      131      -40
    Quintana, Jose          NL      81      120      -39
    Estrada, Marco          AL      47       86      -38
    Miley, Wade             AL      13       51      -38
    Hammel, Jason           AL      61       99      -38
    Happ, J.A.              AL      83      120      -37
    Lynn, Lance             NL      44       81      -37
    Sale, Chris             AL     182      215      -33
    Senzatela, Antonio      NL      53       86      -33
    Godley, Zack            NL     105      137      -33
    Eickhoff, Jerad         NL      49       81      -32
    Holland, Derek          AL       3       34      -31
    Volquez, Edinson        NL      10       41      -31
    Feldman, Scott          NL      65       95      -30
    *min 40 IP home/road

Here is a closer look at some noteworthy home/road BPV splits that you can use both to help set your rotations down the stretch and to identify emerging arms.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) has struggled with consistency so far in 2017, at least on the surface. The culprit has been some mediocre stats away from TAM (4.30 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). However, his skills on the road have been pretty strong (106 BPV). Both his stats and skills are elite when he pitches at home: 3.43 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 176 BPV.

Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) has been the poster child for inconsistency during his career. Such has been the case again in 2017. Interestingly, he has been good on the surface at home (3.83 ERA) with elite underlying skills to support it (141 BPV). On the road, his stats have been terrible (6.32 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) and his skills have been more mediocre than impactful (83 BPV).

Jose Berrios (RHP, MIN) is another pitcher who is much better play at home than on the road. He has posted a 3.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP during his home starts, and those marks have been backed by a very good 128 BPV. On the road, both his stats and skills have crumbled: 5.13 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 53 BPV. This has been an excellent growth season for Berrios after his disastrous 2016 debut, but if you want to limit your risk with him down the stretch, it's best to bench him away from MIN.

Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) has caught fire in the second half. Digging deeper, he's someone you can glean the most value from if you use him during his home starts (100 BPV). His output has been flammable on the road, both on the surface (5.51 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) and beneath it (48 BPV).

J.A. Happ (LHP, TOR) has a sub-4 ERA both at home and on the road, so it might seem like he's worth using in both situations. Not so fast. Happ's decent 83 BPV doesn't support his 3.59 ERA at home. However, his 120 BPV on the road actually supports a sub-3.50 ERA there.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP, NYY) has posted an overall 100 BPV since July 1, making him a very strong end-rotation play down the stretch. It might be tempting to sit him during his home starts given his HR-friendly home park, but he actually has posted much better stats (3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and skills (114 BPV) there compared to on the road (4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 79 BPV).

Rick Porcello (RHP, BOS) has been inflicted with some bad luck during his home starts. The reason he has a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at Fenway has been due to an inflated 38% H%. His 130 BPV at home confirms that he is well worth using at home, and his 30% H% on the road suggests that his 38% H% at home should regress.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Zack Godley (RHP, ARI) owns a 100+ BPV both at home (105 BPV) and on the road (137 BPV). His stats on the road are firmly elite (2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), where he has paired his steep groundball tilt (55% GB%) with excellent command (9.0 Dom, 2.1 Ctl).

Jeff Hoffman (RHP, COL) has torpedoed the stats of owners who have used him during his home starts (6.15 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). His skill foundation at home has been shaky too (46 BPV). On the road, both his stats (4.07 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and skills (92 BPV) improve significantly. Hoffman is someone who can provide you some value at the back of your rotation in deep leagues if you use him wisely.

Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) has put up some of the best results of any SP in MLB when he pitches at home (2.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). And those elite-level stats have been supported by excellent skills too: 10.4 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 51% GB%, 153 BPV. He has been more good than great on the road (3.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 99 BPV).

Nick Pivetta (RHP, PHI) might not seem like the kind of young pitcher you want anywhere near your roster. After all, he owns a 6.25 ERA and 1.47 WHIP after 18 starts, and his aggregate skills wouldn't seem to give him much upside (84 BPV). That said, Pivetta owns the widest home/road skill splits in the game. He has been lights-out at home: 10.8 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 34% GB%, 166 BPV. A 21% hr/f has generated his 4+ ERA at home. You don't want Pivetta anywhere near your active roster when he pitches on the road: 7.85 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, -3 BPV.

Trevor Williams (RHP, PIT) is another under-the-radar pitcher whose stats and skills at home are worth your consideration in very deep leagues. He has posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home, along with a decent 86 BPV. On the road, both his stats (4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) and skills (56 BPV) erode significantly.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.