STARTERS: BPV home/road, 2016

Our prior research on the home and road stats and skills of pitchers confirmed that ERA, WHIP, win percentage, BPV, Dom (K/9), and Ctl (BB/9) all had significant home/road performance variances.

Let's update that analysis with stats and skills since that point, while including our new ball% metric into the mix:

  • Home Stats & Skills: 2010-2016 YTD*
    
    Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    2010      AL  3.87  1.30   .558  3.1  6.9   1.0  44%  29%  73%    9%    37%   63
    2011      AL  4.02  1.31   .534  3.0  7.0   1.0  45%  30%  72%   11%    36%   68
    2012      AL  3.90  1.27   .534  2.9  7.6   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    36%   80
    2013      AL  3.95  1.30   .533  3.0  7.8   1.0  43%  30%  73%   11%    36%   82
    2014      AL  3.79  1.26   .519  2.8  7.7   0.9  44%  30%  72%    9%    36%   85
    2015      AL  3.79  1.24   .543  2.7  7.7   1.0  44%  29%  73%   11%    36%   87          
    2016**    AL  3.90  1.27   .545  2.7  8.1   1.2  45%  30%  73%   13%    36%   96
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010      NL  3.77  1.30   .560  3.2  7.6   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   74
    2011      NL  3.65  1.27   .519  2.9  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   77
    2012      NL  3.76  1.27   .532  2.9  7.8   1.0  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   86
    2013      NL  3.55  1.24   .543  2.8  7.6   0.9  46%  30%  74%   12%    36%   86
    2014      NL  3.43  1.22   .541  2.8  8.0   0.8  46%  30%  74%   10%    36%   93
    2015      NL  3.74  1.27   .540  2.8  8.0   1.0  47%  31%  73%   11%    36%   93
    2016**    NL  4.07  1.29   .494  3.2  8.2   1.1  46%  30%  71%   12%    36%   86
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010     MLB  3.82  1.30   .559  3.1  7.3   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   69
    2011     MLB  3.82  1.28   .526  3.0  7.2   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   72
    2012     MLB  3.83  1.30   .533  3.1  7.3   0.9  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   70
    2013     MLB  3.75  1.27   .538  2.9  7.7   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   84
    2014     MLB  3.61  1.24   .530  2.8  7.8   0.8  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   89
    2015     MLB  3.77  1.25   .541  2.8  7.9   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   90
    2016**   MLB  3.99  1.28   .520  3.0  8.2   1.1  45%  30%  72%   13%    36%   91
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *all pitchers
    **as of June 7
  • Road Stats & Skills: 2010-2016 YTD*
    
    Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    2010      AL  4.42  1.40   .449  3.4  6.8   1.0  44%  30%  71%   10%    38%   51
    2011      AL  4.15  1.34   .470  3.2  6.9   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   60
    2012      AL  4.29  1.35   .481  3.2  7.3   1.2  44%  30%  71%   12%    37%   67
    2013      AL  4.04  1.34   .470  3.2  7.5   1.1  43%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
    2014      AL  3.85  1.31   .491  3.0  7.6   0.9  44%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
    2015      AL  4.25  1.35   .471  3.1  7.6   1.1  45%  31%  71%   12%    36%   77
    2016**    AL  4.40  1.37   .461  3.4  7.9   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   72  
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010      NL  4.30  1.40   .433  3.5  7.2   1.0  44%  31%  72%   10%    38%   58
    2011      NL  4.00  1.35   .478  3.3  7.2   1.0  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   62
    2012      NL  4.15  1.35   .455  3.3  7.6   1.0  45%  31%  72%   11%    37%   72
    2013      NL  3.93  1.32   .453  3.2  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   70
    2014      NL  3.91  1.32   .449  3.0  7.6   0.9  46%  31%  72%   10%    36%   79
    2015      NL  4.09  1.33   .446  3.1  7.7   1.0  46%  31%  72%   11%    36%   80
    2016**    NL  4.06  1.31   .500  3.3  8.0   1.1  46%  30%  72%   12%    37%   78
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010     MLB  4.36  1.40   .441  3.4  7.0   1.0  44%  31%  71%   10%    38%   55
    2011     MLB  4.07  1.35   .474  3.3  7.1   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   61
    2012     MLB  4.22  1.35   .467  3.2  7.4   1.1  45%  31%  72%   12%    37%   70
    2013     MLB  3.99  1.33   .462  3.2  7.4   1.0  44%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
    2014     MLB  3.88  1.31   .470  3.0  7.6   0.9  45%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
    2015     MLB  4.17  1.34   .458  3.1  7.7   1.1  45%  31%  72%   13%    36%   78
    2016**   MLB  4.23  1.34   .480  3.4  8.0   1.1  45%  30%  72%   13%    37%   74
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *all pitchers
    **as of June 7

When deciding which SP to activate on a daily basis, a general rule is to target SP pitching at home, as home pitchers continue to post much better stats and skills than their road counterparts.

It used to be that NL arms with home starts were your best targets, but so far in 2016, AL SP pitching at home have generated better stats and skills. Given the historical lean to NL SP at home being better choices, consider this more of an anomaly than a likely shift.

From a skill perspective, the greatest home/road variance can be found in a pitcher's Control (BB/9) rate. Interestingly, road pitchers have had a higher percentage of pitches called balls in 4-1/2 of the last 6-1/2 seasons compared to home pitchers. Are road pitchers more jittery on the road and therefore more prone to throw balls, or is there an umpire bias that results in more pitches called balls called away from home? The ball% variance isn't great, but it does help to explain why home pitchers have sharper control than road pitchers.

***

Here are the SP who own the best skills when pitching at home so far in 2016:

  • 100+ BPV Home*
    
    Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL  0.7  13.0   0.3  57%  39%  79%    6%    30%  250
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL  0.5  10.6   0.2  60%  22%  76%    3%    31%  216
    Fernandez, Jose         NL  2.5  14.2   0.4  44%  34%  79%    7%    35%  212
    Velasquez, Vincent      NL  2.8  13.0   0.6  31%  27%  92%    7%    35%  168
    Nola, Aaron             NL  2.1  10.7   1.4  49%  34%  76%   21%    33%  161
    Shoemaker, Matt         AL  1.9  10.5   0.8  39%  41%  61%   10%    32%  153
    Lester, Jon             NL  2.1  10.2   0.9  46%  25%  84%   13%    35%  153
    Arrieta, Jake           NL  3.8  12.3   0.0  54%  34%  82%    0%    37%  151
    Walker, Taijuan         AL  1.6   9.5   1.1  45%  30%  78%   13%    34%  149
    Ramirez, Erasmo         AL  0.4   7.4   0.9  50%  18% 100%   10%    30%  149
    Scherzer, Max           NL  3.5  12.5   1.3  41%  31%  66%   17%    29%  149
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL  2.7  11.1   1.3  42%  29%  74%   15%    34%  147
    Sale, Chris             AL  1.9   9.2   1.1  54%  23%  68%   13%    33%  146
    Hendricks, Kyle         NL  1.1   7.5   0.2  62%  24%  73%    4%    31%  145
    Smyly, Drew             AL  1.8  10.0   2.1  32%  23%  57%   16%    34%  142
    Porcello, Rick          AL  1.7   9.1   0.8  44%  27%  70%    9%    40%  141
    Price, David            AL  2.3  10.0   1.3  42%  34%  57%   17%    35%  138
    Duffy, Danny            AL  2.0   9.9   1.6  33%  34%  67%   13%    32%  136
    Hellickson, Jeremy      NL  2.0   9.5   1.4  40%  35%  74%   18%    36%  135
    Villanueva, Carlos      NL  0.8   7.7   2.3  39%  31%  82%   25%    35%  135
    Gray, Jon               NL  2.9  10.0   1.7  55%  38%  59%   31%    37%  134
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL  2.3   9.7   0.4  43%  28%  84%    4%    34%  134
    Gonzalez, Gio           NL  3.0  10.1   1.1  51%  36%  72%   13%    38%  129
    Samardzija, Jeff        NL  2.0   9.1   0.7  39%  32%  76%    8%    34%  128
    Wood, Alex              NL  2.4   8.9   0.7  54%  24%  91%   13%    35%  127
    Nova, Ivan              AL  1.9   7.4   1.1  66%  27%  87%   20%    37%  127
    Verlander, Justin       AL  2.7  10.5   1.0  32%  29%  73%    9%    35%  127
    Cueto, Johnny           NL  0.9   6.9   0.2  48%  29%  79%    3%    30%  127
    Nicasio, Juan           NL  2.7  10.0   0.8  41%  32%  76%   10%    35%  126
    McHugh, Collin          AL  2.0   9.1   1.1  38%  40%  72%   10%    33%  125
    Eovaldi, Nathan         AL  1.8   8.2   1.5  48%  34%  71%   18%    32%  124
    Pineda, Michael         AL  2.3   9.4   2.6  39%  35%  62%   24%    35%  122
    Quintana, Jose          AL  1.1   7.1   0.3  44%  27%  73%    3%    36%  121
    Devenski, Chris         AL  1.8   8.9   0.0  31%  33%  86%    0%    31%  121
    Duffey, Tyler           AL  1.9   8.1   1.9  46%  35%  63%   22%    36%  120
    Eickhoff, Jerad         NL  1.7   7.9   0.8  46%  26%  83%    9%    35%  119
    Kennedy, Ian            AL  3.3  10.6   0.4  39%  33%  89%    4%    35%  119
    Archer, Chris           AL  3.8  11.3   1.2  39%  27%  90%   15%    39%  119
    Salazar, Danny          AL  3.0   9.5   0.3  50%  24%  84%    3%    35%  118
    Kluber, Corey           AL  2.3   8.8   0.9  43%  33%  65%   10%    33%  118
    Moore, Matt             AL  2.6   9.2   1.7  45%  31%  67%   18%    37%  118
    Volquez, Edinson        AL  2.0   7.7   0.4  54%  31%  80%    5%    37%  117
    Bettis, Chad            NL  1.5   7.2   0.8  49%  37%  58%   10%    36%  116
    Guerra, Junior          NL  2.1   8.5   0.4  41%  31%  67%    4%    34%  115
    Pomeranz, Drew          NL  3.3  10.3   0.3  41%  28%  87%    3%    36%  115
    Fiers, Mike             AL  1.7   7.6   1.3  47%  30%  74%   22%    38%  114
    Iwakuma, Hisashi        AL  1.2   7.2   1.7  37%  33%  63%   15%    30%  114
    Nolasco, Ricky          AL  1.3   7.3   1.0  39%  37%  54%    8%    33%  113
    Tanaka, Masahiro        AL  1.6   7.2   1.4  49%  28%  68%   17%    34%  113
    De La Rosa, Rubby       NL  3.8  10.1   0.8  53%  20%  70%   12%    38%  112
    Keuchel, Dallas         AL  2.6   7.8   0.6  65%  35%  64%   12%    38%  112
    Tillman, Chris          AL  3.4   9.7   0.9  51%  30%  85%   12%    37%  112
    Matz, Steven            NL  2.3   7.7   1.0  56%  29%  69%   14%    31%  112
    Hernandez, Felix        AL  2.6   8.5   0.8  48%  27%  76%   11%    36%  110
    Lackey, John            NL  2.7   8.7   0.6  47%  23%  86%    8%    33%  109
    Garcia, Jaime           NL  3.4   8.8   0.3  63%  29%  66%    6%    35%  109
    Kazmir, Scott           NL  3.3   9.9   0.8  41%  35%  74%   10%    35%  108
    deGrom, Jacob           NL  3.5  10.2   0.6  41%  26%  83%    8%    37%  108
    Davies, Zach            NL  2.1   7.6   1.2  49%  24%  74%   16%    36%  108
    Tomlin, Josh            AL  0.8   6.2   1.9  39%  32%  78%   15%    35%  107
    Leake, Mike             NL  1.1   5.6   1.4  54%  24%  58%   19%    31%  103
    Odorizzi, Jake          AL  2.0   7.8   1.3  37%  23%  82%   11%    36%  101
    Colon, Bartolo          NL  2.1   7.6   0.6  43%  34%  81%    8%    32%  100
    *min 20 IP

Next, the guys with the best skills when pitching away from home:

  • 100+ BPV Road*
    
    Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL  0.7  10.5   0.7  41%  28%  85%   10%    32%  189
    Duffy, Danny            AL  0.9  10.6   0.9  36%  30%  88%   10%    27%  181
    Matz, Steven            NL  1.7  10.3   0.3  57%  35%  86%    5%    34%  176
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL  2.4  11.7   0.5  47%  34%  83%    7%    32%  173
    Greinke, Zack           NL  1.0   9.8   0.3  45%  31%  84%    4%    31%  171
    Gausman, Kevin          AL  2.4  11.5   1.6  48%  34%  78%   20%    38%  168
    Nola, Aaron             NL  1.4   9.0   0.2  59%  24%  79%    4%    31%  163
    Lackey, John            NL  1.4   9.8   0.9  34%  28%  63%   11%    34%  151
    Kluber, Corey           AL  1.8   9.1   0.7  56%  26%  67%   10%    34%  148
    Pineda, Michael         AL  2.3  10.1   0.6  48%  43%  64%    7%    33%  145
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL  2.0   9.5   0.7  51%  30%  85%    9%    32%  144
    Hill, Rich              AL  2.8  10.7   0.2  47%  29%  86%    3%    35%  142
    Gray, Jon               NL  2.9  10.9   0.6  43%  30%  58%    9%    34%  137
    Scherzer, Max           NL  2.1  10.1   1.8  32%  25%  81%   16%    32%  136
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL  3.0  11.2   1.2  36%  32%  90%   12%    35%  133
    De La Rosa, Rubby       NL  1.9   8.4   1.9  52%  35%  68%   22%    35%  129
    Anderson, Cody          AL  1.4   8.4   1.4  37%  36%  60%   15%    34%  129
    Wood, Alex              NL  3.6  10.8   0.9  52%  42%  62%   13%    35%  128
    Fernandez, Jose         NL  3.8  11.9   0.6  35%  33%  81%   10%    36%  126
    Sanchez, Aaron          AL  2.9   9.2   0.4  59%  27%  77%    8%    35%  125
    Nolasco, Ricky          AL  2.0   8.7   1.3  45%  30%  72%   14%    37%  124
    Teheran, Julio          NL  1.7   8.1   1.5  41%  18%  81%   15%    34%  118
    Eovaldi, Nathan         AL  2.5   8.5   1.0  55%  31%  68%   13%    35%  118
    Duffey, Tyler           AL  2.4   8.7   0.8  47%  38%  77%   10%    39%  118
    Arrieta, Jake           NL  2.1   7.5   0.6  60%  19%  83%   13%    34%  116
    Price, David            AL  2.9   9.6   0.9  42%  28%  70%   11%    34%  115
    Maeda, Kenta            NL  2.5   8.6   0.3  51%  22%  78%    4%    37%  115
    Bauer, Trevor           AL  2.7   9.0   0.6  47%  31%  76%    7%    37%  114
    Hamels, Cole            AL  3.1   9.1   1.3  55%  25%  91%   20%    37%  112
    Chen, Wei-Yin           NL  1.2   6.4   1.8  52%  26%  72%   23%    32%  112
    Hellickson, Jeremy      NL  2.5   8.7   1.5  44%  26%  76%   17%    36%  111
    deGrom, Jacob           NL  1.2   6.3   0.6  50%  33%  72%    7%    31%  109
    Cole, Gerrit            NL  2.2   7.8   0.5  49%  31%  81%    6%    35%  108
    Quintana, Jose          AL  2.8   9.4   0.2  36%  35%  78%    2%    38%  108
    Porcello, Rick          AL  1.9   7.3   1.9  46%  28%  67%   20%    33%  105
    Smyly, Drew             AL  2.9   9.6   1.6  31%  36%  70%   12%    35%  103
    Anderson, Chase         NL  1.9   7.7   1.9  38%  28%  68%   19%    39%  103
    Kazmir, Scott           NL  3.0   8.9   2.4  42%  21%  63%   21%    37%  100
    *min 20 IP

Only 26 SP have posted a 100+ BPV both at home and on the road:

  • 100+ BPV Home and Road*
    
    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road
    ==================  ======  ========  ========
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL       216       189
    Duffy, Danny            AL       136       181
    Matz, Steven            NL       112       176
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL       147       173
    Nola, Aaron             NL       161       163
    Lackey, John            NL       109       151
    Kluber, Corey           AL       118       148
    Pineda, Michael         AL       122       145
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL       250       144
    Gray, Jon               NL       134       137
    Scherzer, Max           NL       149       136
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL       134       133
    De La Rosa, Rubby       NL       112       129
    Wood, Alex              NL       127       128
    Fernandez, Jose         NL       212       126
    Nolasco, Ricky          AL       113       124
    Eovaldi, Nathan         AL       124       118
    Duffey, Tyler           AL       120       118
    Arrieta, Jake           NL       151       116
    Price, David            AL       138       115
    Hellickson, Jeremy      NL       135       111
    deGrom, Jacob           NL       108       109
    Quintana, Jose          AL       121       108
    Porcello, Rick          AL       141       105
    Smyly, Drew             AL       142       103
    Kazmir, Scott           NL       108       100
    *min 20 IP home/road

Finally, here are the SP with the widest home/road skill splits:

  • BPV Home vs. Road*
    
    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Finnegan, Brandon       NL        77       -59  -137
    Koehler, Tom            NL        68       -59  -127
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL       250       144  -106
    Volquez, Edinson        AL       117        12  -105
    Pelfrey, Mike           AL        66       -38  -103
    Velasquez, Vincent      NL       168        72   -97
    Hernandez, Felix        AL       110        14   -96
    Nicasio, Juan           NL       126        30   -96
    Ventura, Yordano        AL        51       -40   -91
    Holland, Derek          AL        80        -9   -89
    Fernandez, Jose         NL       212       126   -86
    Ramirez, Erasmo         AL       149        67   -82
    Weaver, Jered           AL        83         2   -81
    Tillman, Chris          AL       112        39   -73
    Moore, Matt             AL       118        46   -71
    Hendricks, Kyle         NL       145        75   -71
    Rea, Colin              NL        64        -6   -70
    Shoemaker, Matt         AL       153        87   -66
    Bettis, Chad            NL       116        54   -62
    Fiers, Mike             AL       114        55   -59
    Kennedy, Ian            AL       119        62   -58
    Wainwright, Adam        NL        90        35   -56
    Nelson, Jimmy           NL        74        19   -56
    Miley, Wade             AL        98        43   -55
    Graveman, Kendall       AL        75        21   -54
    Lester, Jon             NL       153        99   -54
    Perez, Martin           AL        40       -13   -53
    Hughes, Phil            AL        72        19   -52
    ----------------------------------------------------
    Gausman, Kevin          AL        78       168   +91
    Greinke, Zack           NL        82       171   +89
    Cole, Gerrit            NL        41       108   +67
    Matz, Steven            NL       112       176   +64
    Wilson, Tyler           AL        34        89   +55
    Straily, Dan            NL        32        82   +50
    Hill, Rich              AL        92       142   +50
    Bauer, Trevor           AL        67       114   +47
    Duffy, Danny            AL       136       181   +46
    Buchholz, Clay          AL        -4        41   +44
    Lackey, John            NL       109       151   +41
    Hammel, Jason           NL        50        91   +41
    Anderson, Chase         NL        67       103   +35
    Corbin, Patrick         NL        57        92   +35
    Sanchez, Aaron          AL        91       125   +34
    Peavy, Jake             NL        50        83   +33
    Zimmermann, Jordan      NL        64        97   +33
    Kluber, Corey           AL       118       148   +30
    Santana, Ervin          AL        49        79   +30
    Chen, Wei-Yin           NL        83       112   +29
    Hamels, Cole            AL        84       112   +29
    Teheran, Julio          NL        91       118   +28
    Chatwood, Tyler         NL        51        77   +26
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL       147       173   +26
    Wisler, Matt            NL        55        80   +25
    *min 20 IP home/road

Here is a closer look at some noteworthy home/road skill splits that you can use to help set your rotations, as well as employ to identify emerging or hidden arms.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cody Anderson (RHP, CLE) could have some sneaky value as a fill-in for injured Danny Salazar (RHP, CLE) in the CLE rotation. Anderson owns a 108 BPV as a result of his nifty 36/8 K/BB in 43 IP. His terrible surface stats (7.48 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) have been the result of some terrible bad luck: 38% H%, 58% S%, 22% hr/f. Anderson also has managed an upper-tier 129 BPV in 25 IP on the road. He's an intriguing buy-low, end-rotation stash in deep leagues.

Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) is showing flashes again of his prior top-prospect upside. He has put up a 134 BPV in two starts so far this month. Digging deeper, owners with the flexibility to sit him during his home starts should do so (4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 67 BPV). His post-hype potential is coming out on the road: 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 114 BPV.

Tyler Duffey (RHP, MIN) quietly is putting up some very roster-worthy skills underneath his poor surface stats (4.79 ERA, 1.45 WHIP): 8.4 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 46% GB%, 119 BPV. His stats have been sabotaged by a 36% H% and 16% hr/f. While his decent command sub-indicators don't suggest he'll stick as a 4.0 Cmd guy (9% SwK%, 61% FpK%, 37% ball%), he's someone who you can use both at home and on the road (120 BPV at home, 118 BPV on road). He also doesn't have big LH/RH splits (3.0+ Cmd against both). There's some end-rotation appeal here in deep leagues.

Danny Duffy (LHP, KC) has enjoyed a seamless transition back to the KC rotation, continuing the overall skill surge we saw from him in September 2015 (141 BPV). In fact, few SP have been better than Duffy during the last month: 30/2 K/BB in 27 IP. His 17% SwK% and 69% FpK% over that period fully validates his elite command. The key has been turning his mid-90s heat into swings-and-misses. He has an 18% SwK% on his four-seam fastball compared to a sub-7.5% SwK% against it the prior two seasons. He's getting more movement on that pitch than he has in the recent past. He also has ironed out his wrinkles against RH bats (5.2 Cmd against them in 2016 vs. 1.7 Cmd in '15). Finally, he's been elite both at home (136 BPV) and on the road (181 BPV). The only reason for his near-5 ERA at home has been a trifecta of bad luck: 34% H%, 67% S%, 13% hr/f. If you haven't taken another look at Duffy, now might be your last time to do so.

Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) has posted a mid-3s ERA both at home and on the road. Digging deeper, his upside is evident when he pitches away from BAL: 11.5 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 48% GB%, 168 BPV. A 34% H% and 20% hr/f have hidden those elite skills. At home, his strikeouts have suffered: 6.1 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 46% GB%, 78 BPV. With a 100+ BPV in both April and May and a steep reduction in his flyball rate, Gausman is heading towards a career year if he can stay healthy and can consolidate these skill flashes.

Aaron Sanchez (RHP, TOR) is a young pitcher who is a premium target during his road starts: 2.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.2 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 59% GB%, 125 BPV. His shine wears off a bit at home: 3.82 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.3 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 60% GB%, 91 BPV.

Matt Shoemaker (RHP, LAA) has enjoyed a big recent surge that has come with full skill support. Owners who want to try to use him judiciously should do so when he is pitching at home: 10.5 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 39% GB%, 153 BPV. He hasn't been able to duplicate his home magic on the road: 6.9 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 38% GB%, 87 BPV.

Edinson Volquez (RHP, KC) is another SP with some value if you can spot-start him. At home, he shows both strong surface stats (2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and good skills (117 BPV). He goes kaboom on the road: 6.82 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 12 BPV.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chad Bettis (RHP, COL) has an ugly near-6 ERA after 13 starts, causing him to be left on the waiver wire in most leagues. That said, a 33% H%, 63% S%, and 18% hr/f have all teamed to torpedo his stats. And he actually owns some very strong skills when pitching in Coors: 7.2 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 49% GB%, 116 BPV. He becomes less usable on the road (54 BPV).

Jon Gray (RHP, COL) is another COL pitcher who might be tempting to sit when he pitches at home. However, Gray's skills are excellent both at home (134 BPV) and on the road (137 BPV). The reason for Gray's terrible home stats (6.65 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) is due to a 38% H%, 59% S%, and 31% hr/f. The big opportunity for positive regression of those marks will help Gray make a lot of headway in the categories that impact you.

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP, PHI) owns a marginal 4.18 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 32 IP at home so far in 2016, but those marks have a lot of downward potential given his 135 BPV at home. A 35% H% and 18% hr/f have combined to inflate his surface stats. Risk-averse owners should consider him a must-start on the road, as both his stats (3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and skills (111 BPV) are good there.

Steven Matz (LHP, NYM) has not shown any of the jitters you might expect to find from a young SP when he pitches on the road: 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 176 BPV. His skills are also good at home (112 BPV). He remains a gem in keeper leagues and is showing no signs of an immediate downturn.

Juan Nicasio (RHP, PIT) is someone owners can glean value from when he pitches at home: 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 126 BPV. He completely falls apart on the road: 6.20 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 30 BPV. If you play in a deep league and have flexible transaction rules, Nicasio can provide value in small doses.

Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) is a young pitcher some owners might sit during his home starts given his HR-friendly home park and near-4 ERA in it. Don't follow suit. Among SP with 20+ IP in both their home and road starts, just two have posted a 150+ BPV in both situations: Kershaw and Nola. Nola's so-so ERA at home is driven by an inflated 34% H% and 21% hr/f there.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.