RESEARCH: How much does previous total production matter?

Previous production. I know of some smart experts who will never draft a player early who has never previously put up numbers comparable their projection. For example, in NFBC drafts this year, Adalberto Mondesi and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were both Top 50 picks. Mondesi had a couple of productive months, while Guerrero has not yet faced major league pitching. Is this inexperience worth dropping them down a draft board when their projections say otherwise?

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